Climate change is an inevitable reality. Severe global measures are being taken to tackle its deteriorating effects. The question is: is it stoppable? If so, who is to stop it, and how? In this article, Elsa Imdad sheds light on the drivers of climate change, the current situation, and how the world should deal with it.
With human beings’ increasing dependence on technology, life has become easier, but the impact of human endeavors on the environment has substantially increased and proven detrimental. The foremost impact of these endeavors is global warming. The UN’s IPCC has predicted that the planet will heat up to 1.5 degrees centigrade in the next two decades despite efforts to mitigate GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions. IPCC has also reported that the previous decade was hotter than the past 1.25 million years. Such findings are indeed appalling for global warming is a multifaceted peril and cannot be handled with one single preventive measure.
The major catalyst behind the rise in global average temperature is the increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration. GHGs are mainly carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. GHGs absorb the infrared heat radiations emitted by earth causing the lower atmosphere to heat up. According to the UN, the earth is 1.2 degrees warmer than it was in the 1800s. It is also foretold that global temperature would increase by 3-5 degrees due to rising GHG emissions despite considerable efforts to limit the emissions. It is worth noting that 10-15 countries contribute up to 68% while 100 countries contribute about 3-5 % to the global GHG emissions. The Center for Energy and Climate Solutions reports that China, the USA, and European Union nations are the largest emitters of GHG on a recurrent basis. M. King Hubbert postulated a theory in 1950 that the end was near when we’d run out of oil as a cheap energy source, so one must look at alternative energy sources. The world’s current shortage and dependence on fossil fuels validate Hubbert’s theory to a larger extent.
With the rise of capitalism and industrialization, the world has undergone a massive technological revolution along with changes in the political and social fabric. Every single thing of our everyday use comes through an industrial process. The United States Environmental Protection Agency 2019 report says that industrial emissions comprise up to 23% of the global GHG emissions. The report further states that paper, food, petroleum plants, metals, chemicals, and mineral industries are the highest industrial emitters. The real challenge for environmentalists is coming up with sound alternatives that are as effective as the current mechanisms to these staple industries.
Transportation is an incredible scientific invention and has added utility to our lives, making itself indispensable, but it is one of the major sources of GHGs. As per IEA, transportation makes up 24% of the global CO2 emissions. Rampant urbanization also increases the demand for energy and transportation is an area ultimately linked with urbanization. The increasing number of the middle class and its dependence on personal transportation (cars and motorbikes) is yet another catalyst. IEA’s 2019 report depicts that aviation emission adds up to 50% to global emissions yearly. Despite considerable efforts to reduce emissions made by transportation every year, the increasing population and complex infrastructure hinder the way of achieving the global goal.
Agriculture is an ever-growing area because its expansion depends upon the needs of the population, which, by all means, is increasing every year. Agricultural activity, after transportations, is the second-highest emitter and contributes up to 10% to global emissions. The Land Trust Alliance, a global think tank for climate, reports that agricultural emissions, i.e., methane and nitrous oxide emissions are less than those of CO2, yet pose a serious threat. To mention, a methane molecule is 25% more potent than that of CO2 to cause global warming. Similarly, a nitrous oxide molecule is 28 times more potent than CO2. The human race is dependent on agriculture but one must acquiesce with the pungent fact that the fulfillment of our dietary needs also entails an existential threat to our planet.
Deforestation, or the removal of green areas for agricultural and industrial purposes, is a vexing concern for environmentalists worldwide. IPCC’s 2019 report says that 13% of global emissions. The unplanned infrastructure, lenient policies on climate change, and rapid urbanization make countries more prone to the impact of deforestation. Carbon Brief, an organization that works for forest conservation, says that since 1990, more than 129 m hectares of forest (roughly the size of South Africa) has been chopped down by humans, eventually obliterating the natural ‘carbon sink’.
Although humans’ need for habitat is integral, one must not overlook the fact that greater habitats are being destroyed for the smaller ones, squeezing the breathing space for ourselves and many other living creatures. All the aforementioned factors have largely caused irreversible damage to the planet. The increase in the global average temperature is one such irreversible damage. IPCC’s 2021 report says the planet has heated 1.1 degrees centigrade further – the highest it has been in the past 1,25,000 years. We are already experiencing the effects of it in food security, infrastructure, public health, economy, extreme living conditions, etc.
The effects of global warming, however, vary for each social class and country as per their development index. Van Oldenborgh et. al (2017) underscore that estimates of personal and subjective experiences undermine the magnitude of the problem. This is true especially when certain countries tend to care less about this problem because they are currently not so much under the threat of climate change, but this, however, may not be the case for long. Rising temperatures worldwide cause fluctuating weather conditions. Some of the changes are already visible around the world, such as heatwaves, precipitation patterns, etc. Even the very developed cities cannot sometimes withstand the jeopardy caused by changes in the weather. For instance, hurricane Ida flooded the entire city of New York in September 2021 despite the impeccable infrastructure.
Extreme weather conditions are also a big threat to crop production and could cause droughts. For instance, the heating temperatures in Punjab and Sindh provided a favorable environment for the locust attack, which resulted in the decaying of mango, wheat, and other crops. The rain shortage and the probability of crop diseases have drastically reduced crop production in different parts of Pakistan.
IPCC in its 6th report has provided some alarming findings concerning the current situation of climate change, the foremost being the global surface temperature was higher in the last decade (2011-2020) than between 1850-1900. It also said that the past 5 years have been the hottest since 1850. As it is obvious, and so does the report say, that human influence is 90% responsible for the glacial melting since the 1990s. Given these scenarios, the heat waves would become more intense and frequent in the coming times, while the cold season would be less severe and less occurring. For many of these consequences, there is no reversible action.
The real challenge here for the governments is how to minimize/prevent further damage? Pakistan’s vulnerability index is very high. As per the meteorological department, our annual GHG emissions are 18.5 million tons of CO2. Pakistan currently fulfills its major energy needs out of coal and gas. The government must emphasize and develop mechanisms for the public’s interest and access to renewable energy sources. Reduced dependence on fossil fuel combustion would pave the way for cleaner and safer air. Besides, pedestrian-friendly paths should be prioritized to encourage walking and cycling.
If we look at the global scenario, the UN and other international bodies should have strict regulations and checks and balances for the top 10 emitters which are the US, China, UK, and other European nations. Proper accountability for the developed nations would help the rest of the world by looking up to them as models. Besides, there is a dire need for effective global campaigns to educate and sensitize people on the issue, so that taking care of the environment doesn’t sound like a sport of western nations only but an obligation for every citizen of the world. Climate change is a reality that demonstrates its deterioration with each passing day, while the world is busy in the rat race and the never-ending conquest of different pursuits, it is high time we realize that the planet must be treated as a habitat and not a temporary refuge. Â
Elsa Imdad is a USG Alumna. She holds a bachelors in modern languages with an English major and Spanish minor. She has previously been part of American Spaces in Pakistan and now works as a Project Coordinator at Afghan Studies Center, CRSS. Her interests include public diplomacy, language teaching, peace and conflict resolution, capacity building of marginalized groups, etc.
