To:
Lieutenant General Kashif Nazir, HI(M) — Engineer-in-Chief, GHQ
Lieutenant General Arshad Naseem — Surgeon General, Pakistan Army
Subject– From Cholera in 1872 to Crisis in 2025: Why GHQ Must Save the Waters of Rawalpindi and Islamabad
Respected Generals,
With trembling hands and the humility of common citizens who fear for their nation’s future, we—together with Imtiaz Gul—write what may be the most difficult and sorrowful plea of our lives. Everything we have researched, everything history has taught us, every scientific fact we have placed before you, all point to one terrible truth: the drinking water sources of Rawalpindi and Islamabad are collapsing, and unless you act now, the lifeline of the twin cities may soon meet the same tragic fate as the capital of Iran.
Tehran, a city of nearly 15 million people, once confident in its power and geopolitical standing, is today facing a water catastrophe so severe that Iranian officials are openly discussing the unthinkable: relocating the capital itself. This is not speculation—it is the reality documented by global institutions, water experts, and Iran’s own government. Decades of unregulated construction, deforestation of mountain catchments, reckless groundwater pumping, and destruction of watersheds have pushed Tehran to a point where even its long-standing alliances with the United States or threats from Israel could not inflict the kind of damage that water scarcity is inflicting now. Tehran’s greatest enemy was not politics, sanctions, or war—it was the quiet, relentless death of its watersheds.
And today, respected Generals, we stand on that same precipice.
If Rawal, Simly, and Khanpur Dams watershed are allowed to collapse, if the forests from Murree to Patriata continue to be cut, if sewage keeps flowing into the Korang River, the twin cities will face a crisis even the most powerful nations would struggle to survive. Once water scarcity takes hold, there is no force on earth that can negotiate with an empty reservoir. The warning from Tehran is not a foreign tragedy; it is our own future written in advance.
We say this with grief: the future of the water of Rawalpindi and Islamabad is now in your hands. As citizens, experts, and patriots, we have done our part. We have brought you the science, the history, the global cases, the documents from the British Library (https://www.bl.uk), and the centuries-old lessons that once protected the Northern Command. We have shown you what cholera did to Rawalpindi in 1872, how Murree was saved because its springs and forests were guarded, and how Rawalpindi suffered because its water was fouled.
Now, the responsibility to act rests with you.
Everything the British preserved—the forested slopes of Patriata, the protected springs of Murree, the careful sourcing of water from Korang and Soan—was done with an understanding that an army cannot survive on contaminated water. Their conviction was rooted in science, experience, and tragedy. Those forests were protected as military infrastructure. And today, when those very watersheds are being destroyed by unregulated construction, illegal hotels, tourist sprawl, sewage discharge, and reckless development projects, the institutions that once protected them remain silent.
Across the border, India learned the same lesson and chose a different path. New Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai—they all were on the verge of water collapse. But India moved swiftly to protect the forested watersheds feeding their reservoirs. Mumbai safeguarded the Tansa and Vaitarna watershed forests by declaring them Eco-Sensitive Zones. New Delhi protected the Asola-Bhatti forest area around its aquifers. Across the Western Ghats, entire catchments received legal protection to guarantee water for millions. Where Pakistan has allowed deforestation above Rawal, India has enforced strict protection above its reservoirs. Where Pakistan’s catchments are being carved into real estate, India fenced off its watershed forests and stationed forest guards. And where Pakistan has allowed untreated sewage to poison Rawal Dam, Mumbai invested in keeping its forest catchments pristine.
India treated water as national security. We, heartbreakingly, have not.
And yet, respected Generals, the cure for our crisis is right before us. I, Engineer Arshad H. Abbasi, have spent decades unearthing British-era documents preserved at the British Library — maps, reports, forest reservation acts — proving that Rawalpindi’s water security was once managed with unmatched discipline. Those reports, including Sir John Simon’s Report on the Epidemic Cholera in 1872 (https://wellcomecollection.org) and FAO’s Running Pure (https://www.fao.org/3/Y5558E/Y5558E00.htm), remain some of the most authoritative evidence on watershed protection ever written.
I discovered truths that institutions forgot to remember. But he cannot enforce them. We cannot enforce them. Only you can.
We beg you—please do not let Rawalpindi and Islamabad become the next Tehran. Please do not allow these cities, home to your own soldiers and families, to slide into a tragedy so vast that relocation becomes a future discussion for Pakistan as it has now become for Iran. If Rawal, Simly, and Khanpur collapse, the consequences will be far greater than any geopolitical challenge Pakistan has ever faced.
Generals, we ask you with painful sincerity to take personal interest, because history is offering you a rare chance: to save the lives of two cities with a single decision.
Please declare the entire watershed—from Rawal Dam up to Murree, and the complete catchments of Simly and Khanpur—as a National Protected Park, with the support and cooperation of the UN, UNESCO, World Bank, EU, and the High Commission of the United Kingdom, who can supply additional historical records on watershed protections implemented during the British Raj.
Why the Alternate (Lift from Tarbela) Is Not a Realistic Option — The Cost Is Prohibitive
Many may argue that if Rawal/Simly/Khanpur fail, we could instead supply water from the Tarbela Dam. But such a plan would demand pumping water up more than 800 feet (from Tarbela’s storage level to the elevation needed for Rawalpindi/Islamabad). The technical and financial burden of such an operation is staggering.
- Pumping large volumes of water over 800 feet means continuous heavy energy usage, complex pumping infrastructure, maintenance, and high risk of failure — especially in dry years when Tarbela’s water levels themselves may be low.
- Historically, even water from Tarbela has been expensive: documents on its design show that delivering water via irrigation or watercourses from the Tarbela reservoir costs significantly more compared to simpler local sources. (World Bank)
- Reconfiguring Tarbela as a backup drinking water supply to twin cities would require not just pipelines, but high-powered pumps and energy. The cost of such a massive uplift and conveyance system — including civil works, pumping stations, high-capacity pipelines, energy costs, and year-round operation — would run billions of US dollars.
- Given the vast scale, it is quite probable that the total cost would exceed US$3 billion, especially when factoring in inflation, energy, long-distance piping, and redundancy systems. For a country struggling with fiscal constraints, debt, and multiple development needs, this is not just expensive; it is perhaps beyond Pakistan’s realistic financial capacity unless administered with massive foreign financing or international grants.
- Even the original construction cost of Tarbela — though justified for hydropower and irrigation — did not aim to service remote urban water supply at high elevation for twin cities. Converting Tarbela for that purpose would amount to building a new water supply system from scratch.
Therefore, reliance on Tarbela as an alternative is neither practical, sustainable, nor economically feasible. Trying to pump water uphill by 800 feet would essentially mean building a new system at the cost of a major infrastructure project—something far more expensive and less reliable than simply protecting and restoring the original local watershed, which nature provided for free, for generations.
A Direct Appeal to the Government of Punjab & the Authorities of Murree
We also solemnly urge the Government of Punjab and Murree-region planners: please refrain from developing Murree into a mega tourist city, from enforcing a train project, from green-lighting uncontrolled hotels, housing colonies, and heavy construction on forested slopes.
Tourism, real estate, and short-term profit may bring revenue — but they will destroy the natural sponge that feeds Simly, Rawal, and Khanpur. Once those forests are gone, once the springs dry up or get polluted, the cost to replace that water will dwarf any income generated by tourism.
We plead with the Government: prioritize water security over tourism profit. Inform the people. Educate them. Show them that building a tourist empire on a dying watershed is nothing short of suicide for the twin cities.
We ask this not for ourselves, but for the millions who drink these waters every morning without knowing how fragile their future has become.
May Allah place mercy in your hearts. May He make this letter touch you deeply enough that you cannot ignore it. And may He grant Pakistan the wisdom to save its lifeline before it is too late.
With profound respect, in grief and hope,
Engineer Arshad H Abbasi — Co-authored with Imtiaz Gul
