The latest fierce border clashes and the ensuing toxicity – publicly injected by Afghan and Pakistani ministers hardly bode well for the future of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations. The circumstances demand introspection and recalibration. Amir Khan Muttaqqi’s statement in New Delhi, Zabihullah Mujahid’s aggressive posturing in Kabul (Oct 12), and similar provocative Pakistani public posturing, particularly by Defense Minister Khawaja Asif, as well as sections of the military establishment, only fueled and exacerbated already existing tensions.
Afghan officials can also not absolve themselves of the responsibility by merely denying the presence of anti-Pakistan TTP and other terrorist groups in Afghanistan. After all, delegations from Pakistan at various levels have been meeting with TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud and his associates in Kabul, with Afghan Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani acting as the mediator. It is also a fact that the UAE helped the Kabul regime in resettling TTP fighters and their families in Ghazni. Pakistan had diplomatically rejected this request, but Noor Wali and others continue to live in Afghanistan.
A point to ponder for the Taliban; accepted they are being honest and well-meaning vis a vis Pakistan but would they consider the possibility that some elements within Afghanistan’s power structures – particularly the General Directorate of Intelligence ( GDI), the successor to the Karzai-Ghani era National Directorate of Services (NDS), are acting, or being used as proxies to fan trouble with Pakistan as and when an opportunity arises?
How do the Emirate officials determine whether or not the TTP is not a proxy for any external power? Kabul and Kandahar may look at them as ideological comrades in arms, but isn’t the dramatic rise in violence in Pakistan, at least sixty officers and soldiers, lost to terror attacks and cross-border incursions, in the last week?
Tied to this is the element of social media influencers; those familiar with the narratives on both sides – particularly the one peddled via social media – believe that apparent pro-Taliban social media influencers pounced on the recent border skirmishes as an occasion to inject more venom into relations.
The Islamic Emirate can control the mainstream media, but why can it not restrain aligned social media influencers, particularly those who continue to parrot the Durand Line mantra, whereas the border is clearly demarcated with a robust 10-foot-high fence? Living in the past helps no one. The Afghans shall have to shun the habit of weaponizing the border as and when it suits them. Why not focus on developing what they already have?
As far as Pakistan, artillery attacks, deployment of drones and jets, it demonstrated its technological superiority – something that the US-led 38-nation coalition against terrorism in Afghanistan also possessed, but their combined might failed to disrupt or break the Taliban insurgency.
For Pakistan, the way forward lies in a long-term people-centric strategy and not in a tactical approach to deal with a poorly equipped Afghan army.
It may not be a match to Pakistan’s military capacity, yet it is battle-hardened enough to inflict enduring and continued damage through hit-and-run tactics, as it did against the US-NATO forces.
Pakistani leaders in particular would be well-advised to stop publicly ridiculing or making light of Afghanistan and its people. Afghans – especially Pashtuns – don’t take this lying low. You may overawe them with military superiority, but you cannot force them into submission.
Wars in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan offer enduring lessons for us all; despite being ill-resourced, the insurgents gave sustained resistance, leading to continuous attrition of the bigger and technologically superior enemy
Knee-jerk aggressive reactions to provocations on the border by soldiers or petty officials who may be on the external payroll only exacerbate an already precarious security situation for Pakistan.
Suspension/closure of the border for all sorts of traffic causes more bad blood than repairing relations. Every such action creates more negative stories and hardens people’s perceptions of the “enemy.”
As a larger country, Pakistan must maintain a high moral ground while continuing to pursue its policy preferences.
Both sides shall have to step back and avoid being incited into unnecessary escalation of conflicts, which eventually end up piling misery on the people of both countries – people at large, returning refugees, farmers, and traders.
Bottom line: Let the trade and people’s traffic flow while continuing to press for policy preferences.
