Pakistan is going through an internal political crisis which is translating into and deepening our economic crisis, to the point that further chaos could push the country into default. At the same time, the geo-strategic reorientation in the region and Pakistan’s relations with its neighbors is another challenge to stand up to.
Pakistan is undoubtedly going through one of the worst crises in its recent times: the economy is in shambles with fears of default looming around, and the political circus keeps giving every single day as the dominant political parties are in a bid either to capture power or to stay in power, the judiciary is being sought to interfere at every point and their decisions are further increasing the polarization within society. And while the musical chair of power within Punjab is the center of gravity, and the contradictions of the system are on the display, there is no popular alternative discourse to make inroads and shape a different political, social, and economic reality. The result: While the elite is playing power politics, Pakistan is suffering, and common people are bearing the brunt of the instability fuelled by all the pillars of the state.
Amidst all this, there is a geo-strategic challenge of improving relations with its neighbors in an unstable regional environment, a problem Pakistan has had for much of its history. Take the example of Afghanistan which has been the breeding ground for imperial wars for decades now, with Pakistan being a part of that. We have had an adversary in Afghanistan for their claim of the Pashtun region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa but averted that picture by becoming part of the anti-communism war in Afghanistan. We then used our relations with the Afghan Taliban for “strategic depth”. The policy has been in effect since the 90s and thus but there was a general hope that Pakistan will have considerable influence on the new Afghan government following the U.S. withdrawal in August 2021, for the Pakistani establishment is thought to have a good relationship with factions of the new Taliban led government in Kabul. The takeover of Kabul was widely celebrated in the urban centers of Pakistan and on social media as a victory of Islam and a new alliance between two neighboring Islamic states. But this hope hasn’t fared well since then; One of the key demands of peace across borders which included an understanding and accord with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has not been met despite many efforts including a one-month truce. The great Eqbal Ahmad had warned then (in the 90s) that: “Policy-makers in Islamabad assume that a Taliban dominated government in Kabul will be permanently friendly towards Pakistan. The notion of ‘strategic depth’ is founded on this presumption. This too is an illusion.” The relations between the two neighboring countries are tense for the Taliban are urging the international community for recognition, legitimacy, and trade to keep afloat their economy and strengthen then hold on to power. In addition to fighting an enemy and a U.S.-installed government, they were also fighting for power.
A key element to understand is that the Taliban government is formed by different groups and is not a single entity, which makes it harder for them to decide on different matters, including bringing TTP to the negotiations table with Pakistan as they consider TTP one of their own. Taliban are working on consolidating power by keeping intact the support of all groups including TTP and as Eqbal Ahmad rightly said: “Old loyalties rarely stand in the way of new temptations.” Pakistan has tried brokering a peace deal through ‘power non-elected state representatives and has recently sent a delegation under Mufti Taqi Usmani to hold a round of talks, someone who celebrates and romanticizes the Taliban-led government. One can but wonder why aren’t our elected representatives made part of such talks/negotiations. After all, they are the ones elected to decide on the matter of the state! There is a lesson in history that we should vouch for a pluralistic Afghan government because that’s what Afghanistan is!
We have another important neighbor in Iran, with which we enjoyed friendly relations except for the disagreements on the Taliban government in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s alleged support of the group. Iran, alongside an important regional stakeholder, is one of the major producers of oil with a daily production of around 2.5 million barrels of oil per day. However, they can export only around 1 million barrels daily because of the sanctions placed on them by the United States and the western countries to contain their nuclear capabilities of Iran.
Since the day PTI led government was ousted through a vote of no-confidence, there has been a debate around the purchase of oil from Moscow as they are offering it at a discount in the face of sanctions placed upon them by the West due to the Ukraine War. Only could not help but ask only a simple question: why Pakistan is not buying oil from Iran with which it shares a border and is also offering it a discount for a long time? Now, this is interesting since the very party explicitly stated in the past that they can’t import oil from Iran due to sanctions is building a narrative that they were about to import it from Russia. Put into that the realities of Pakistan begging IMF for loan and with all the tools like FATF that the west can use to hamper Pakistan in case of any such deal. This also brings into question the hegemonic role of the United States by using the international bodies/forums/institutions for its supremacy rather than letting the governments take sovereign decisions for their benefit. This whole scenario makes puts our relations with Iran much more difficult as they are limited by sanctions.
India, our traditional rival, is reduced to the source of our ‘Patriotism’ as any attempt to mend relations with India is termed mutiny (the same is the case on the other side of the border). In 2019, Pakistan severed its trade ties with India to the level of Israel, a country Pakistan does not recognize to this day. India’s revocation of the special status of Jammu Kashmir further worsened the bilateral relations and the whole process seems a dead end for now with a hyper-national government in India.
China is considered an ‘evergreen’ friend and the most important neighboring country in the context of how the world is shaping with China playing the anchor role. Besides being a friendly country, which extends its warm support on every global forum, it is one of the main financiers of the country and has also invested heavily in the infrastructure of Pakistan through the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which is part of China’s ambitious plan of OBOR (One Belt One Road Initiative). But even that historical ally is not pleased with the progress on that flagship project which represents more than $60 billion in investment, which they expressed by not inviting Pakistan to a high-level dialogue on global development while inviting 17 other countries, including India. This is a clear indicator that we need to rethink our foreign policy, which has taken a clear setback in the past few years.
To conclude, Pakistan needs internal political, social, and economic stability to improve its relations with neighboring countries, but at the same time, healthy relations will improve our internal conditions, especially our economy. More trade with its neighboring countries and an environment of constructive collectivism based on shared interest is the only way forward.
Courtesy: CRSS
