By Jehangir Khattak
The United States is caught between a resurgent deadly virus and the divisive run-up to a difficult election in an increasingly toxic political arena. Americans are witnessing tumultuous times. The daily count of COVID-19 cases is touching historic highs, a popular uprising against racism has reached the countryside and a struggling economy is on the verge of what experts warn a prolonged recession.
These are challenging times for American democracy, economy and way of life. As it hastens to reopen, Coronavirus returns with a deadlier force. For the first time daily positive cases count crossed 50,000 mark for two consecutive days at the beginning of July. Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Donald Trump’s point man in the war against pandemic, has warned that the daily count of positive cases could touch 100,000 if the US continues to lower its against the pandemic. At least 20 states have reported a spike in cases, with almost three million infections having already been confirmed across the country. But these numbers may not be real. The Center for Disease Control has speculated that the actual number of infected people could be six to 24 times higher than the current levels.
Electioneering in the middle of such frightening reports is ominous. But President Trump remains undeterred, and continues to hold election rallies disregarding the warnings and advice from experts. Dr. Fauci, who enjoys tremendous respect across the political divide, has been challenging Trump on his campaign outings, by urging Americans to stay away from large gatherings. At least eight Trump campaign staffers caught the virus after his June 20 rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
The virus toll has already surpassed 130,000 since its outbreak earlier this year. The surge in new cases could overwhelm hospitals in states like Florida, Texas, Arizona, California etc. The CDC projects there will likely be between 140,000 and 160,000 total reported COVID-19 deaths by July 25th. It is these projections that are making many economists less enthusiastic to the positive numbers about new job creation coming out of US Labor Department.
The Labor Department in its latest report says U.S. payrolls grew by 4.8 million in June, surpassing economists’ forecasts. It was the second month of strong gains after April’s huge losses, when businesses laid off or furloughed tens of millions of workers as the pandemic shut down much of the economic activity. The unemployment rate has also fallen from April’s 14.7 to 11.1 percent in June. But it is still higher than in any previous period since World War II.
Economists fear that the current spike in infection rate could accelerate layoffs now that many states have begun ordering some businesses to close again. Another looming challenge is the expiration of government assistance, in particular the enhanced unemployment benefits providing an extra $600 per week to laid-off workers. Those benefits will cease at the end of July, potentially eliminating a key source of support not just for the workers but for the broader economy as well. It will especially impact the black and minority communities which have already been disproportionately affected by the disease and job losses.
It is in this backdrop that the November elections are emerging as a campaign challenge and logistical nightmare for all the candidates. President Trump seems to be the biggest loser in the current environment. His poll numbers are tumbling and approval rating down to 40% or below — that is George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter territory. Both Bush Senior and Carter were denied a second term at the ballot. But this is a familiar turf for Trump who faced similar situation in 2017 as well after he failed to repeal ObamaCare. He however regained support with tax reform and a buoyant economy that was lifting all incomes.
His sagging approval ratings are coming just four months before the elections. But Trump still has some performance to sell to American voters. His record fighting the Coronavirus is certainly better than his critics claim, even though after a bad start in late February and March. Trump mobilized federal resources to help hard-hit states. But critics say he wasted his chance to show leadership by turning his daily pandemic briefings into brawls with the press and any politician who didn’t praise his handling of the crisis.
President Trump also failed to give a healing touch and unite the Americans after the death of George Floyd at the hands of white officers in Minneapolis. Americans hate racial enmity and expect of their President to reduce it. Trump seems to have disappointed many by adopting a combative attitude.
He has little time to recover as his rival is enjoying a double-digit lead over him in pretty much all the national polls. Interestingly enough, Biden did not have to campaign to take such a hefty lead. The former vice president rarely leaves his Delaware home basement, dodges most issues, and his only real message seems to be that he’s not Donald Trump. He distinguishes himself from Trump as being a uniter, and not a divider.
Some Democrats are reportedly advising Biden to barely campaign at all. “Eliminate the risk of a mental stumble that will raise doubts about his declining capacity that was obvious in the primaries,” wrote Wall Street Journal in one commentary. “Let Mr. Trump remind voters each day why they don’t want four more years of tumult and narcissism.”
Biden is promising more diversity in his administration, and major reforms to America’s criminal justice system, police, immigration and health delivery systems. But unlike Biden, Trump seems to have no second-term agenda, or even a message beyond four more years of himself. He is not capitalizing his performance on economy, where he has an edge over Biden. In fact, an agenda to revive the economy after the pandemic, and restore the gains for American workers of his first three years, would appeal to millions of voters. But If Trump continues to be driven more by his combative temperament and less by a clearly defined second term agenda, many political pundits believe he may end up losing to “Sleepy Joe”!
The writer is a New York-based senior journalist and commentator. He tweets at @JehangirKhattak
