On July 13th, Imran Khan, Former prime minister and chairman of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), stated that Pakistan’s future would largely depend on the outcome of the by-elections on July 17.
The elections were to determine the future of both the federal administration led by Shahbaz Sharif and the precariously positioned provincial government led by his son HamzaShahbaz. More importantly, the outcome of the election was also to decide the political fate of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).
However, the results of the elections on July 17 demonstrated that PTI defeated PML-N with a resounding victory. Starting with Punjab, the most populous province in Pakistan, PTI declared an emphatic victory.
Twenty seats in the Punjab Assembly were at risk. These seats had fallen vacant, following the disqualification of 20 PTI MPAs for switching their votes in favour of Hamza Shehbaz, the son of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, for the Chief Minister’s Office.
Despite being elected in controversial circumstances, Hamza Shahbaz continues to hold the office as the chief minister. However, the Lahore High Court has ordered to hold fresh elections for the Chief Minister’s Office following the Sunday by-elections.
On the other hand, the PTI won 15 provincial assembly seats, while the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) of three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif managed to secure only four seats.
What does the stunning victory mean for Khan’s PTI – which had fallen out of favour with the military establishment for its nationalistic and pro-China inclination?
On 9th April, a no-confidence vote resulted in the overthrow of Khan’s government. Since then, Khan has been waging an aggressive campaign anchored in the claim that he fell victim to a regime-change operation through the collusion of internal and external factors. He primarily held the military establishment and the US government for his downfall through the alleged conspiracy. Imran Khan has also been extremely critical of traditional big political parties such as PML and PPP. He claims that the anti-poor status quo,based on the 19th century governance model, has been perpetuated by these parties and the military establishment.
The victory literally means revival of hope for fresh general elections in the next few months. The results have literally boosted Khan’s demand for new elections, that he has been making since the ignominious vote of no confidence against his government in April. Prime Minister, Shabaz Sharif, had been hoping to run the government until August next year.
Secondly, Electoral victory in Punjab also means the electorate has stamped Khan as the populist leader who managed to galvanize people across Pakistan around his narrative of conspiracy and the resolve not to let outsiders dictate what Pakistan should do. Live with integrity and self respect , has been his message.
Thirdly, Khan electrified the people at large and his followers against those conventional politicians who have been changing loyalties ahead of or after elections at will. This election is being seen as a strong rejection of such politicians, which came on the back of an apex court ruling that MPs elected on the ticket of one party cannot become instruments for removing their own party’s government.
Fourth, the by-polls have certainly helped in reinforcing Pakistan’s democratic evolution and the role of key state institutions such as the Election Commission of Pakistan.
Lastly, the country’s mighty military establishment might also sigh relief as Imran Khan had launched a vicious campaign blaming it for what he called the missteps that led to political and economic instability of the country. Anxiety around the future role of the current army chief General Qamar Bajwa also hangs in the air. His term expires in November and there is still no indication as to whether he will bow out in late November.
Lot more suspense and excitement is certainly in store for all those Pakistanis who are curious as to when and how soon the next elections might be announced.
