Aisha Saeed
The recently held 41st Gulf Cooperation Council Summit in the historic city of Al-Ula brought an end to the Saudi-led blockade of Qatar and symbolized normalization between the Gulf countries. The US- Kuwait backed efforts to mend the Saudi- Qatar row was officially announced at the summit, where the Gulf leaders signed a “solidarity and stability” agreement meant to reaffirm unity among the GCC nations. The move was also important to contain Tehran’s influence in the region.
The agreement was welcomed by the international community, including Pakistan. While the GCC countries renew the ties within the region, the stability of the bloc easies the pressure on the countries linked to them diplomatically. Amongst them, Pakistan’s relationship with Saudi Arabia- a leading GCC state, is the most pronounced. Despite having strong relations in the region, challenges in the relationship exacerbated owing to the incongruity of expectations from Pakistan by some of the GCC countries. The strain in the relationship did not last long as it is visible from the recent high-level official exchanges between GCC countries and Pakistan.
The situation in the Gulf impacts Pakistan’s policies which primarily involve security (military) relations, energy, and the economy. The economic aspect of the Pakistan-Gulf relation entails the Pakistani community residing in the region. To meet the energy demands (of mainly oil and gas), Pakistan largely leans towards the gulf for an uninterrupted flow. Pakistan also silently aided Qatar during the blockade by providing perishable items from the port of Karachi to the Hamad Port in Doha.
However, Pakistan’s military and security ties with the Gulf remain an interesting exchange. The training of troops, assistance in counter-terrorism, and joint military exercises under defense agreements continue to be an important aspect of the Pakistan- Gulf relations. What worries Pakistan in terms of security is the bloc’s repugnance towards Iran and the sectarian divide that affects Pakistan’s internal security. To avoid the political and sectarian backlash at home, Pakistan decided to stay neutral in the case of Yemen and Qatar.
Pakistan from the beginning of the Yemen conflict kept its distance and refused to participate or send troops to aid the Saudi forces. The stance was frowned upon by the Saudi Government but Pakistan’s decision was wise. The attacks from Yemen on the oil facilities in Saudi Arabia caused uproar against Iran which denied the allegations. Since Pakistan to date depends on the Gulf for much of its energy supplies, further attacks on the oil facilities would have disrupted Pakistan’s energy sector. The US and the Saudi Government were adamant to make Iran face the consequences of the attacks. This rang an alarm bell for Pakistan. A new conflict at the western border meant Pakistan would be caught in the line of fire. Stability in Iran and the Gulf is vital for the immediate and long term strategic interests of Pakistan.
For Pakistan, the Gulf rapprochement can mean a few things. The countries’ collective attitude towards Iran will remain a cause of concern and a tight rope for Pakistan to walk. Qatar’s role in the Afghan Peace Process has great stakes for Pakistan as the matter remains delicate with the new US government in the picture. Unlike Pakistan which to a certain extent entertains its bilateral relations on its terms, the unified Gulf bloc follows mostly in the footsteps of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia when it comes to its external relations. The US-backed Saudi-Qatar deal is an exception in the matters of the gulf. Both KSA and Qatar hold strategic importance for the US and the with the deal, the US safeguarded its interests in the region. With the new US administration, which is yet to announce its the Middle East and Afghanistan policy, the strategic implications for Pakistan could also forgo an abrupt change. If the new US administration decides to keep its military presence in Afghanistan, Pakistan could require the Gulf’s (mainly Qatar) assistance in limiting the offset of the Afghan Peace Process. The timely appointment of Pakistan’s new ambassador to Saudia Arabia is not only because of the bolstering military relationship but also due to Pakistan’s need to keep an eye on the security situation that could harm Pakistan’s interest.
Pakistan must also understand the importance of the Gulf as it forms one of the most important international waterways. The potential that Pakistan‘s Gwadar port holds could become instrumental in the maritime trade, making the security of the waterway around the Gulf more significant for Pakistan. Pakistan still provides the shortest trade route between China and Gulf even if the Gulf nations do not participate in CPEC.
Any diplomatic or strategic void left by Pakistan in dealing with the Gulf nations gives leverage to India as the GCC is home to many Indian migrants with strong setups in the community. Pakistan must address the problems faced time and again over visas and the treatment of its nationals by proposing a solution that applies to all the Gulf nations.
The significance of the Al-Ula declaration must be understood by Pakistan as the details of the agreement are revealed in the coming days. The rapprochement provides Pakistan with an opportunity to assess and amend its policies which remain confined to the three factors. Only then can Pakistan peruse greater strategic interests in the region and beyond.
Aisha Saeed is an independent analyst on the media and foreign policy of Pakistan. She tweets @MsAishaK.
