Laraib Nisar
Since the US and its allies have announced to complete the troops’ withdrawal process by September 2021, several debates have sprung up regarding whether Afghan forces will be able to sustain peace or not? Will the transition be smooth or rough? What is the future of US allies post-withdrawal? What will the post-transition Afghanistan look like? The answers to these questions aren’t clear yet, but according to the picture painted by analysts and people who have been directly associated with the Afghan fiasco, Afghanistan will be able to sustain, because the US has invested in the financial, technical, and vocational training of the Afghans National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) significantly, and plans to do so in the coming days as well.
Zalmay Khalilzad, US Special Representative to Afghanistan, clearly testified in front of the Senate that US will continue its diplomatic support for the peace process and urge all parties including the Afghans, and international stake holders to remain focused on securing a political settlement and a cease fire. Moreover, on the security front, US plans to assist in the support, sustainment, and functionality of some 300,000 Afghan military and police personnel who are a vital asset for their country and deserve all the support, this will be done not just by paying the salaries of ANDSF members, but also by maintaining a close contact with ANDSF and a constant surveillance on their activities and operations.
Moreover, US is determined to continue its counter terrorism (CT) efforts, in coordination with the local partners. Mr. David Helvey, Assistant Defense Secretary for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs stated in a Senate hearing that US is planning and discussing to utilize the CT opportunities available in the Persian Gulf region and the Middle East, because this will create time and distance between the operations that US may need to undertake, and the close proximity of these areas to Afghanistan will benefit US immensely.
It is important to note that despite moving forward, US understands the moral obligation that falls on it regarding the help of its allies and those who have helped it immensely during its 20 years in Afghanistan. Brigadier General Trollinger, Joint Staff Deputy Director for Middle East Affairs, testified before the US senate that US will continue to coordinate very closely with its coalition partners to ensure that they jointly support the ANDSF and the government of Afghanistan. Moreover US is working on the special immigrant visa program, and is looking for other tools and mechanisms to help those who can’t avail the special immigrant visa due to the limitations of the program.
However, it is worth mentioning that only around 3500 US troops are currently present in Afghanistan, such a small force can’t be the determinant for success and failure in Afghanistan. The ingredient that will determine success or failure in Afghanistan going forward is the afghan people themselves. The Afghans, having witnessed a significant increase in life expectancy, improved education of their youth especially women, a dramatic progress in public health infrastructure, and other elements of civil government after the involvement of US in their affairs, are the right group to decide that is the US withdrawal beneficial for them or not?
The outcomes in Afghanistan can never be worth more to US or the international community than to the Afghan people, and success in Afghanistan cannot mean more to the US and its allies than it means to the Afghans. Some analysts do hint on the possibility that, the afghans having seen the improved quality of life for more than 20 years, will decide that they want to keep that rather than going backwards and experiencing what they were during the time when the Taliban and others were engaged in a civil war in the country. But this would mean a continuation of the ongoing ignominy. Now is the time for Afghanistan to realize that in order to rise back, it has to learn the art of self-dependence. Though it is easier said than done, but with consistent efforts and continued economic, political, security, and diplomatic support from US, its allies and the regional countries, Afghanistan will stand back up on its feet.
The author Laraib Nisar is a Defense and Strategic Studies’ graduate, working as a Research Associate at the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) Islamabad.
