Imtiaz Gul
It is not “Do More” any more. Nor is it “No more” altogether. As the turmoil around Afghanistan continues and the retrograde is underway, the US-Pakistan conversation is also moving on.
The sense that we derive from officials dealing with the complex Afghan-Pakistan-US relations is one of a desire for a clearly defined roadmap for future engagement. The “Do More” mantra is off the table for good, it is hoped . So is the acrimonious past wrapped in mutual suspicions and allegations.
The engagement is now centred only one goal: “What can we do for a comprehensive bilateral engagement independent of , but not necessarily excluding Afghanistan,” say officials both in Islamabad and Rawalpindi.
This implies Islamabad is not willing to tie its relations with Washington in the Afghanistan context alone for the apprehension that bilateral relations can slip off the rails once the US combat mission exits Afghanistan.
That is why both sides seem to be intensely weighing options for a mutually agreeable way out of the hitherto acrimonious relationship – tainted mostly be allegations and suspicions. Following the recent relatively quiet meeting between the two National Security Advisors (NSA) in Geneva, both sides are mulling the contours of future engagement.
Pakistan – bitten by past experiences – is averse to an engagement rooted in the past and is now asking for investment and trade partnerships. Neither lollypops nor short-term quid pro at any cost. Nor will we accept financial assistance with strings.
Herein officials see the toughest test ever for Pakistan’s diplomacy i.e. management of relations with both Washington and Beijing.
The US-Allies’ unease with Beijing is all too visible. So is their desire to wean countries away from China and its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
But for Islamabad, turning back on or moving away from China is out of question, particularly to the context of the generous financial support through cheap loans and investments in infrastructure and energy projects worth $ 30 billion since 2015.
“We cannot please the US at the cost of our unparalleled partnership with China, that is our future. But we certainly don’t want to antagonize the US or other major powers provided the country is accorded respect.”
That is the categorical message from PM Imran Khan and his aides, who are focused on stitching long-term investment and business partnerships based on equitable mutually respected partnership.
It represents both a challenge as well as a worry at the same time.
Challenge because the top leadership is keen to maintain mutually beneficial relations with all nations. But it entails a big worry as well; what toll it might take on Pakistan in case the US-led Quad ( US, Japan, Australia, and India) policies on China place certain restrictions or requirements which Islamabad may find difficult to comply with? It is in no mood to annoy Beijing. It is a clearly Catch 22 situation.
But can the US and its allies match what China has done in a short span of time? Nearly $ 30 billion in financial relief and investment in about five years.
Can they help us substantial relief in our external debt?
Is this why Prime Minister Imran Khan is avoiding any contact whatsoever with President Joe Biden or his vice president, particularly because the Biden literally snubbed Khan by not inviting him to the Global Climate Summit which was attended by Indian and Bangladeshi leaders, while they have little to match as far as Khan’s passion and action for green initiatives is concerned.
So, Pakistan is holding its horses and waiting to see if the US comes back with a set of options on which to build the future relations. As of now, officials say, meeting for the sake of meeting makes no sense. They don’t expect any movement out of Islamabad until Washington can take lead for a clearly-defined roadmap for future substantially walk-able options.
