Putin and Xi Jinping are expected to meet in Uzbekistan on September 15 and 16, where the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting will be taking place as Beijing and Moscow step up their economic cooperation in response to Western-led criticism and sanctions. The meeting between Xi and Putin will continue to seek a “normal relationship” and share a “new vision” of the international system. Amid the conflict, China has sought to strengthen its strategic ties with Russia by presenting its wolf warrior diplomacy in a blunt response to western concerns. The Sino-Russian alliance poses great jeopardy to western interests.
Russia is improving relations with the People’s Republic of China in response to the economic sanctions imposed by the Western nations. Because it will free up resources for China and provide income for Russia, the Northern Sea Route from the Bering Strait to the Barents Sea may be a win-win situation. In addition, given the conflicts between the US and Russia, and China, it can potentially be used strategically.
The nature and focus of Sino-Russian collaboration have changed recently. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have had more than 30 meetings since 2013. Xi referred to Putin as his “best and bosom friend.” Despite criticism from the West following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China was convinced that the two countries’ relations would continue unabated. Amid the conflict, China sought to strengthen its strategic ties with Russia by presenting its wolf warrior diplomacy in a blunt response to western concerns. The Sino-Russian alliance would be extremely harmful to Western interests, but the breadth and depth of cooperation are also quite important.
Putin and Xi Jinping are expected to meet in Uzbekistan, where the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting will be taking place on September 15 and 16 as Beijing and Moscow step up their economic cooperation in response to Western-led criticism and sanctions. Andrey Denisov, the Russian ambassador to China, announced to reporters last week.
The meeting is the most recent indication of improving relations between China and Russia, which have vowed to be friends “no matter what” in the face of escalating economic difficulties at home and deteriorating relationships with the United States and its allies abroad.
Against a world order that is dominated by the United States
Russia’s state-run energy giant Gazprom has recently announced that it had signed an agreement with China to settle payments for gas in yuan and roubles rather than US dollars to lessen its reliance on the US financial system after being subjected to repeated rounds of sanctions over its involvement in the conflict in Ukraine.
The Xi-Putin talks would be the first time the two leaders have spoken face to face since Moscow invaded Ukraine, and would take place as the Chinese president prepares to go abroad for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak by paying a visit to Kazakhstan the next week.
The crucial ruling Communist Party convention, scheduled for mid-October, is when Xi is anticipated to win a historic third term in office. The meeting takes place just weeks before that congress.
Auspicious Prospects in Economy
Natixis’ chief Asia-Pacific economist, Alicia Garcia Herrero, stated that she anticipated Xi and Putin to announce collaborative economic initiatives in Central Asia, possibly involving new energy pipelines. Garcia Herrero said to Al Jazeera, “I think Xi Jinping is going to get something major security and economically in Central Asia,” calling the timing of their meeting two months before the G20 summit, “daring.” “Because Xi Jinping is visiting him or at the very least meeting him before Biden, Putin will still portray it as a triumph. Putin will thus, in my opinion, pay a price.
According to Garcia Herrero, the meetings might also lead to an announcement of Chinese investment in or support for particular facets of the struggling Russian economy.
Wide-ranging sanctions have severely harmed Russia’s economy, causing the GDP to decline by 4% in the second quarter. A tight “zero COVID” policy that continues to need lockdowns and border restrictions as the pandemic approaches its third-year harms China’s economy as well.
Beijing refrained from denouncing Moscow’s invasion and opposed penalties aimed at a significant portion of the Russian economy.
Chinese state-owned financial institutions have retreated from Russia because of concern that they will break sanctions, but China has also increased economic cooperation with its partner, increasing imports of Russian oil and removing import limits on wheat.
According to a translation by Russian state media, Xi stated via video at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June that he anticipated China-Russia trade would break “new records” in the ensuing months as a result of “the strong collaboration between our two nations.”
China and Russia have reached an agreement on the cost of gas deliveries via a pipeline from Western Siberia to China. China and India are two of the 15 nations participating in the Russia-led Vostok-2022 military exercises in the Far East. They agreed on the use of yuan and roubles to replace dollars in payments for gas supplies,” Xu told Al Jazeera. “Their relations are expected to further expand and deepen in a variety of areas with the upcoming summit between the two leaders, mostly due to solid political trust and economic complementarity, and partially because of the US offensives on both Beijing and Moscow.”
Divisive Factors
The likelihood of disengagement between China and Russia also exists. Russia strenuously objected to China’s membership in the Arctic Council in 2007. It is still concerned about China’s increasingly independent stance on Arctic-related matters. Given that China and Russia’s relations have just recently been mended, China’s free navigation in the Arctic may someday present risks for Russia. Kamila T.N. Sorenson and Ekaterina Klimenko note that Russia has been unwilling to allow Chinese control to grow in the Arctic and that an explicit security pact between the two states is unlikely.
Additionally, the Russian infrastructure is viewed as antiquated and inefficient by Chinese experts. They believe that despite the Arctic’s geopolitical importance, Russia has not made sufficient investments there. China also takes issue with Russia’s lower investment in Arctic-related initiatives. China is aware of the shaky nature of relations with Russia, which until very recently consistently opposed the BRI and even Chinese research centers in the Arctic. China shares the Russian Federation’s skepticism about its failure to maintain transit traffic in the Arctic. Due to its economic situation, Russia is unable to undertake significant investments.
Cooperation is the only way forward
However, cooperation between China and Russia is more likely than conflict. Peace between China and Russia is essential because neither country can afford to fight on a new front due to the rivalry between China and the US and the strained relations between NATO and Russia. The meeting between Xi and Putin, according to Qingdao Xu, a senior scholar at the Pangoal Institution in Beijing, suggested that the two nations will continue to seek a “normal relationship” and share a “new vision” of the international system.
