Shakeel Ahmed Ramay
PTI government came into power with the slogan of change and the promise socio-economic turnaround. The party promised livelihoods for millions of people, growth, and improved business environment through better facilitation and ease of doing business. Pakistan’s Ease of Doing Business also jumped 26 places. However, the burgeoning external debt, a nearly $ 20 billion negative balance of payments in 2018-2019, jacking up of interest rates on the heels of the $ 6 IMF loan worked as some of the major impediments to reform and investment.
In these testing times, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) came out as a real bail-out opportunity. Following Prime Minister Imran Khan’s November 2018 visit to China not only cleared some of the mist created by partially reckless statements by some PTI ministers but also led to the agreement on the need to speed up the implementation process as well as expand the scope of cooperation to the social sector as well agriculture and science technology. In fact, in March 2020, during President Arif Alvi’s visit to China ( meant to express solidarity with China in COVID-19 context) ,both countries signed also two critical and important MoUs, 1) agriculture and 2) science and technology. These MoUs underlined that even the ravaging pandemic did not deter the will of both countries to expand the cooperation under CPEC.
The MoU for agriculture has been designed to cater to the present challenges and needs of the agriculture sector. The agriculture sector is facing multiple and multi-dimensional problems. The productivity of major crops and livestock sectors is very low due to a lack of investment in research and development. Scientific knowledge is not being applied to improve productivity due to a lack of resources. There is also a need to invest in the livestock sector to improve the breeds of animals. Climate change is another problem that is the haunting the agriculture sector. It is good to note that MoU includes the cooperation on research, scientific knowledge, climate-smart agriculture, food processing industry, and supply chain. Hence, it is expected that cooperation will help Pakistan to combat these challenges. Besides, China is also helping Pakistan to control the locust.
The MoU on science, technology, and modern applications would prove a game changer Pakistan still lacks adequate modern skills, scientific knowledge, and expertise to develop technologies. Hence, it is expected that cooperation with China under the MoU on Science and technology will help Pakistan develop the requisite expertise and knowledge.
Social sector development cooperation will focus on skill development, support for safety nets, agriculture, and housing sectors. The investment in skill development would have multi-dimensional impacts. It will assist Pakistan to create a pool of skilled labor, which would be required for SEZs and other initiatives.
The establishment of CPEC Authority is another big initiative by PTI government. It seems to be changing the dynamics of CPEC planning and execution processes as an entity with a singular focus on CPEC. The Authority proved its worth by accelerating the planning and execution. The major achievements of CPEC Authority are consolidation/ coordination of work on various, ML-1 approval, SEZs inauguration, groundbreaking of two dams, and internship program for youth.
Although all initiatives important but the construction of the dams, run-of-river hydropower projects, and thousands of youth internship programs and scholarships for IT and engineering students are excellent initiatives that have long-term positive effects for Pakistan.
Diamer-Bhasha Dam will generate 16000 jobs, which means 16000 families will be benefited. It will also help to generate jobs in cement, steel, and other industries. The storage capacity of the dam is 6.4 MAF, which will be used to irrigate 1.2 million acres of agricultural land. It is direly needed in Pakistan, as the non-availability of water severely hampers the agriculture and livestock sectors. Diamer-Bhasha Dam will also produce 4500 MW electricity, which will help to combat the challenge of load shedding. It will also be a source of cheap energy, which will help our industry to reduce the cost of production. CPEC Authority also started work on the Azad Pattan Hydropower project. The project will be completed in 2026 and it will add 700 MW of electricity.
Completion of some of CPEC projects including ML-1, dams, and the launch of internship programs will count towards the PTI government performance but let us make no mistake; Sino-Pak relations enjoy a bipartisan consensus in Pakistan. Also, this is about relations between the two states, and not just China and Party A or B of Pakistan.
The PTI government will need to focus on non-CPEC areas such as the dated governance structures, obsolete procurement systems based on redundant tendering mechanisms, and simplifying tax collection.
If the CPEC Authority also remains hostage to the traditional governance/planning regime – dependent on the myriad of bureaucratic rigmarole, the dividends will be hard to harvest. Secondly, for future cooperation with China under CPEC, the government will have to develop a pool of China experts. Pakistan needs people who can understand the economic, governance and diplomacy models of China. Third, the government should turn CPEC into a state project and try to end the credit game by different parties and stakeholders by building consensus.
Lastly, CPEC Authority should develop tools to share the latest developments and data of projects. Information warfare is not just about tweeting on developments. It is about created a detailed live information dashboard, which can be helpful for anyone curious to know the status of details of CPEC implementation.
Author is the Director, Asia Study Center, SDPI.
