Jehangir Khattak
President Donald Trump’s sweet, 47-minute press talk along with Prime Minister lmran Khan broke all records. It was the longest bilateral press state-stake-out and the best ever White House narrative on Pakistan and a loud endorsement of Khan’s government.
Download Matrix Mag July Issue here
The unprecedented, over 20,000 community gathering of highly charged Pakistani Americans at Washington’s Capital One Arena -called by administration officials a “rock-star performance”- and his very confident interaction with the American media and handling of tough questioning at the United States Institute of Peace seemed to had turned Khan into a victor at DC.
What followed the visit? On July 26, the Trump administration announced reversal of its 2018 suspension of military aid and cooperation by approving $125 million for technical support to Pakistan’s aging fleet of about 85 F-16s.
Pakistanis had only hoped to repair the bilateral relations that suffered immensely during the early months of the Trump administration, but Trump took a 180 Li-turn on Pakistan,” Arif Rafiq, president of Vizier Consulting, LLC, a security risk assessment company, New York told Matrix Mag.
Many in the US, including Rafiq, believe that Trump’s inclination towards a reset in relations came about “when he stopped listening” to his senior advisors, such as Alice Wells, Lisa Curtis and John Bolton. Reports of behind-the-scene efforts by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, former Chief of Army Staff General (Retired) Raheel Sharif, Ross Perot Jr. and General David Petraeus in facilitating the trip have also been making the rounds inside the Beltway and in Pakistan.
Download Matrix Mag July Issue here
As expected, Afghanistan and India were the elephants in the room but the talks were not limited to the two countries. Both leaders assured each other of a much more mutually beneficial partnership, in the future.
What took many by surprise was the “unscripted, candid, honest and persuasive” Khan convincing Trump and lawmakers to do his best to persuade the Afghan Taliban directly negotiate with the Ashraf Ghani government.
Some quarters in DC speculated that under the agreed strategy, premier Khan will try to cajole the Taliban into a ceasefire and direct hold talks with the Afghan government.
New challenges for Pakistan
Pakistan’s civilian leaders and the military establishment are now on trial to deliver on what they promised to the Americans. President Ghani’s desire to run for a second term is a major stumbling block too.
“The risk is that, since the Taliban have not yet formally agreed to talk to the government, and since they will not do so until they agree with the U.S. on troop withdrawal, they may feel compelled to deny that they have agreed to negotiate with the government,” Barnett Rubin, a former state department official who was part of the Obama administration’s negotiation efforts, told New York Times.
Download Matrix Mag July Issue here
“That would be a setback for the process.”
Is it a reset in relations?
There is some debate in the US on the question of a reset in the bilateral relations? While Pakistan’s Foreign Office may have enough reasons to believe the relations have been reset, there are still many skeptics in Washington. To them the two sides may be on a course to a reset.
“In essence, from the Trump administration’s perspective, the U.S.-Pakistan relationship may have improved, but that doesn’t mean a reset is in order-or that Trump even wants one,” said Michael Kugelman, Deputy Director of the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C.
“The bottom line is that while Khan’s trip to Washington may have been full of smiles and good vibes, and it may have even solidified U.S.-Pakistan cooperation in Afghanistan, it shouldn’t be mistaken for a reset in troubled ties. This newfound comity can’t mask the reality that U.S.-Pakistan relations are still in need of major repair,” he wrote in an article in World Politics Review.
Download Matrix Mag July Issue here
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, nevertheless, has been optimistic. He was one of those optimists who tweeted after meeting Prime Minister Khan: We are moving in the right direction and I hope to see continued progress in the days and months ahead, on peace in Afghanistan, counterterrorism, regional security, and trade,” Pompeo said in a tweet.
Trust deficit
Trust remains a challenge for both sides to overcome despite the new warmth in the relations. Mutual suspicions are blamed for the many complications in the bilateral relations. Also unpopular inside the Beltway is the billions of dollars Islamabad has received in aid.
Many in DC expected Khan to seek restoration of civilian and military aid to Pakistan. But he had a different message.
“I did not come here for restoration of aid. I came here for restoration of trust,” he told a questioner at a talk at the US Institute for Peace.
Army top brass presence
The presence in DC of Chief of the Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa and ISi chief General Faiz Hameed was probably the icing on the cake for many Washington watchers who have always peddled a civil-military divide theory; Pakistani civilian leaders might promise big in DC but may fall short on delivery because of lack of support by the security establishment.
The high profile accorded to General Qamar Javed Bajwa by the US military reflected a mutual desire to enhance cooperation.
Download Matrix Mag July Issue here
The US military’s new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley had already advocated for maintaining strong military-to-military relations in his testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on July 11.
What next?
While Trump administration seems to have changed its view of Pakistan – considering it part of the Afghan solution rather than a problem -yet, a long fight lies ahead.
Analyst Arif Rafiq believes few in Washington’s policy establishment are very warm to building truly long-term relations with Pakistan. Reason; India is their bulldog for the Asia Pacific and South Asian region. But he hoped that Khan’s successful visit will have its “trickledown effect” on the American bureaucracy. But such change may have shortÂterm effects – limited to transactional rewards for progress on Afghanistan and counter-terrorism.
A strategic realignment will be a huge challenge for the two sides in the long-term. India and Afghanistan – the two countries in the region which Pakistan considers biggest threats to its national security are America’s closest allies. Conversely, China, which the US considers the biggest threat to its national security, remains Pakistan’s closest friend and partner. An alignment will only be possible if the US helps a normalization of relations between the two countries and accepts and promotes greater regional connectivity for trade and commerce. President Trump’s body language and statements, including his offer of mediation on Kashmir, hold a lot of promise and genuine reasons of hope for Pakistan.
The writer is a New York-based senior journalist and commentator. He tweets at @JehangirKhattak
