Troika Plus may not achieve much until the US rises above Afghanistan recognition issues, and internal politics, writes Imtiaz Gul.
The day long Troika Plus meeting—comprising Pakistan, China, Russia and the United States on November 11 (Thursday) to review the situation in Afghanistan—was attended by all four Special Representatives (SR), including the US envoy Thomas West. Afghan interim foreign minister Amir Muttaqi also led his delegation to Islamabad on Wednesday, a day before the meeting took place.
Was the Troika Plus meeting anything different from what we have been hearing since August 15, when the Taliban stormed into Kabul as the victors? Not really.
Troika Plus Meeting And Some Intriguing Contradictions
A cursory view of the statement betrays some interesting though intriguing as well as contradictory points; the meeting, for instance, recalled relevant Afghan-related UNSC resolutions, including respect for the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Afghanistan that is free of terrorism and drug-related crimes, and that contributes to regional stability and connectivity. Troika Plus representatives also called on Taliban to protect the rights of all Afghans and provide equal opportunities to women and girls to participate in all aspects of Afghan society, including access to education for women and girls.
The Troika Plus participants expressed deep concern over the severe humanitarian and economic situation in Afghanistan and reiterated unwavering support for the people of Afghanistan. At the same time, the participants called on the Taliban to ensure unhindered humanitarian access, including by women aid workers, for the delivery of humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan to respond to the developing crisis.
But let us consider what is triggering the humanitarian crisis.
Firstly, all these Troika Plus demands and expectations are not illegitimate at all but they do amount to a tall order for a regime that is hamstrung by a number of factors, mostly tied to the issue of recognition.
Troika Plus Meeting: The Consequences Of A Deadly Freeze Over Recognition & Funds
The US is not likely to recognize the Taliban regime at least for another year, primarily because a) the Biden administration is weak, and b) mid-term elections next November make it even harder for the President to take bold decisions such as according recognition to the Taliban regime.
Secondly, the US freeze on Afghanistan’s funds in ( up to $ 9 billion), have literally paralyzed entire financial system inside Afghanistan. Banks are beset with a liquidity crunch, both Afghanis and Dollars. They have several million dollars but that all belongs to native, genuine private traders and businessmen.
Access even to these funds are extremely limited; one businessmen told me all he can withdraw in a month is $ 25,000 for business.
But the current banking channels inside Afghanistan literally mean little for international business transactions – trade and borrowing – if they cannot issue a letter of credit or extend loans. Nor can the banks draw their own funds via New York—a bitter fact the Troika Plus knows is hampering business activities in Afghanistan.
Even if there are no sanctions per say, the freeze on funds has by implication practically closed all international banking possibilities on Afghanistan and choked its internal banking.
Iran had oil readily available and hence could gradually circumvent US/UN sanctions but what does Afghanistan offer for barter trade other than fruits, vegetables, carpets and leather products?
The Divisions Within The Taliban Ranks
Thirdly, disunity within Taliban ranks on the issue of girls’ education and work opportunities for females, is another precipitous factor. The divisions between the Haqqanis and the Kandahari Taliban are gradually becoming pronounced than ever before. The Kandahari leadership led by the acting prime minister Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund
Fourth, appeals for and provision of humanitarian assistance by the US are hollow formalities because it will not help in providing the over 350,000 teachers and health workers whose monthly expense ( salaries alone) are over $ 40 million. How can humanitarian assistance off-set this urgent requirement?
Fifth, the US position on recognition and the withheld funds are practically also preventing the European Union countries to walk the pledge of over a billion Euro humanitarian assistance package. How should they transfer funds to Afghanistan?
No legal way in the absence of banking channels.
This has exposed immediate neighbour Pakistan to additional financial strains, as the INGOs such as UN and ICRS appear to be relying on smuggling of dollars out of Pakistan.
Doesn’t the US position on Afghanistan amount to punishing the hostages instead of hostage-takers, as one American observer put it? Instead of calling Ashraf Ghani and others to account, Washington – hamstrung by domestic political compulsions including the mid-term elections in one – is holding back on recognition and the funding issue.
Are Taliban Being Set Up For Failure?
Is this setting up the Taliban regime to fail? What will it take the Taliban to be acceptable to the US and its allies? This is a question Amir Muttaqi, the acting foreign minister, asked during his interaction with the civil society in Islamabad, a day after the Troika meeting.
Can the US tell us what system would they like us to adopt so our government becomes acceptable to them, Muttaqi asked. Everybody will anxiously wait for an answer out of Washington.
He claimed that most of women are back to work. So are over 75 percent of girls, he said, back to learning in most provinces.
But unless there is verifiable evidence for this claim, foreigners may not lend credence to them at all.
The Taliban shall also have to be much more restrained as far as dealing with former government officials, particularly the NDS, Police and Military intelligence officials. Fear and risk of persecution and harassment of these officials represents a big challenge for the Taliban regime. They shall have to walk the talk and create as much facilitation for people at large as possible. They should do what they can to appear as a normal state that cares for global concerns about fundamental human rights in Afghanistan and then lead the rest for outsiders to decide.
