The US now has more control over its existing allies, while Europe has once again become heavily dependent on the US due to real concerns and hysterical fear caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It has also resulted in a new power structure for NATO members in East Europe, and those closely allied with the US. As a result, the US now has a firm grip on Europe.
These remarks were made by Dr. Anatol Lieven, Director, Eurasia Program, Quincy Institute during a webinar on Russo-Ukraine Conflict: Costs and Consequences for Europe and Asia organized by Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), Islamabad.
He noted that Europe will never go far as US against China, partly for economic reasons because the cooperation and conflict in international relations are largely driven by interests. States and other international actors engage in cooperative or conflictual behavior based on their perceived economic, strategic, ideological or even cutural interests.
It has also been noticed in Germany and elsewhere that a break in Russian supplies has been colossally profitable to the US, which in part is supplying Europe its own gas at vastly increased prices. There is unhappiness with this among German trade unions and industries.
If to that there was real US pressure seriously to break off economic relations with China, which is the second greatest market for German markets, it would cause great anxiety and anger in Germany.
China, of course is growing but less than a fifth and Russia too has held up much better under Western sanctions than what was expected but while the economy is not declining, it’s also not growing. So, all of this from an economic point of view, works out well for US andconsolidates what US people think of a free world under American leadership and protection against China and Russia.
When it comes to Ukraine War, for US, there is undoubtedly in Washington, an element of pure cynicism, desire to create a military ally in Europe which will cripple Russia reserve. But if you look at American liberals and the left, you do see partly an exaggerated portrayal of Russia as an aggressive force.
If you look at the composition of western governments, its multicolored but the assumption of civilization superiority remains absolute. Now West is talking in terms of democracy and human rights and so forth but in the end, it implies we are a superior civilization. Historically any civilization worth a name that is Chinese, Roman, never thinks it’s a civilization but a civilization per se.
China is projected to be the largest economy next year and has positioned itself by brokering a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran and has offered assistance to Israel and Palestine. Fear of China becoming the greatest economy in the world has led to a degree of hysteria with American elites because it has not faced something like this since the 1880s. It became the largest economy in 1884 and remained so ever since. America faced Japan and Germany in second WW and Soviet in Cold war but none were competitors in economic terms. Secondly, Western liberal tolerance stemmed from a tremendous sense of security. In recent years, since 2008, in domestic political terms, Western liberals have become more and more insecure and rise of populist right both in US and Europe, the crumbling of Western economic model, has led to a real atmosphere of hysteria. This fear is now linked to this belief of alliance of authoritarianism on world stage. However, US does feel it can maintain its own global supremacy while containing China but China continues to grow faster than US currently.
Speaking about Pakistan, he added that it needs to forge the closest possible links with countries like Brazil, South Africa and other countries in Africa, while avoiding any clash with India. And, also strengthening itself economically because Americas tactic will be to pick off countries one by one being the weakest. America cannot afford to build sanctions on Brazil, Indonesia and allies in the Middle East, as that would drive these countries in the arms of China.
Afghanistan like Iraq, Libya has been swept under the carpet in the West and the Russian invasion of Ukraine has helped that. If China sees a real need of exploring Afghan minerals and energy which could be a consequence of growing US economic pressure on China but just at the moment, there is no economic imperative for China to get involved in Afghanistan and great risks for China on ground and diplomatically.
