Germany is hosting the 59th Munich Security Conference from February 17-19. Europe and the rest of the globe are looking for a better solution to terminate or at least lessen the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has caused casualties, division, and recession, as the one anniversary of the commencement of the military conflict approaches. Many key decisions are expected and talks are being held among the representatives from all over the world. Eyes are also set on China-US meeting on the sidelines, following the controversial ‘spy balloon episode’. Iran is also discussed.
The West’s ability (and resources) to continue supporting Ukraine in what could turn into a protracted war of attrition are major concerns for the foreign dignitaries and defence officials attending the Munich Security Conference (MSC) this year. This is in addition to dealing with a more significant long-term challenge in the east as China shifts into the role of the West’s next great superpower rival. Almost 40 heads of state and government as well as hundreds of decision-makers and security specialists from about 100 different countries are all present at the MSC. According to news sources, the organisers did not invite Iran or Russia.
The two risks aren’t distinct for some top officials.
“The war in Ukraine matters also for [Asia] because if Russian President [Vladimir] Putin wins, that will send the clear message to all the leaders in Asia and Beijing that when they use military force, they succeed,” said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in an interview with SitRep prior to the conference. China, he said, “is keenly watching what occurs in Ukraine, and the conclusion of that… will effect their decisions, their calculations on what to do in their vicinity.”
Leaders Side with Ukraine
As expected, the conflict in Ukraine has taken centre stage.
President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the gathering via videolink, pleading for a quickening of the supply of weaponry and cautioning that only triumph over Russia was an option.
The friends of Ukraine were urged to “intensify” their support by the French President Emmanuel Macron and to get ready for a protracted conflict by the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Macron added that given Russia’s ongoing aggressiveness, this was not the time to start a dialogue with it. Though German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President both expressed their “continued backing” for Ukraine during Friday’s inaugural ceremony, analysts, however, felt that the military conflict’s growing effects had given Europe a sense of urgency to end the problem, as Macron also stated that it was vitally essential to start drafting the conditions of a settlement for Ukraine.
The European Union wants to work with the defence sector of the bloc to increase production of ammunition that is desperately required on the front lines in Ukraine and to restock military supplies at home. AT MSC, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen suggested the bloc should do what it did during the pandemic to prepare for the large-scale production of a COVID vaccine. We may consider, for instance, advanced purchase agreements that provide the defence industry the chance to invest in production lines right away to make them faster and able to produce more, she said. She further emphasised that the bloc could not hold off on restocking its own military supplies or sending supplies to Ukraine.
Following a meeting with President Maia Sandu of Moldova on the sidelines, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said “Washington was concerned about some of the machinations that we’ve seen coming from Russia to attempt to destabilise the government in Moldova” .The US would maintain its “strong support for Moldova in support of its security, independence, and territorial integrity,” Blinken continued.
In recent weeks, officials from Moldova and Ukraine have asserted that a Russian scheme was intended to harm the country in eastern Europe that borders Ukraine. Blinken is the most notable Western official to publicly level the same charge.
China presents its pro-peace stance
Wang Yi, the top diplomat of China, is also attending the 59th MSC. He is anticipated to speak during the China session to highlight China’s unwavering commitment to peaceful development and outline its security strategy.
The highest-ranking Chinese official to go to Europe since the 20th CPC National Congress is Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and the director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee. He is also the first senior Chinese official to attend the MSC in the three years since the COVID-19 outbreak began, which observers feel demonstrates the importance China has on the gathering.
At his meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday, Wang Yi stated that China has adopted an objective and impartial position and was always committed to promoting peace discussions with regard to the Russia-Ukraine dispute, which is the focus of the MSC.
China reaffirmed its readiness to revitalise its ties with Germany and Europe and to broaden cooperation in a variety of areas. At a discussion with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, Wang Yi said that MSC is a crucial international forum, and he expects it to speak out for peace, forge a consensus on cooperation, mutually promote multilateralism, uphold the UN Charter, and protect the hard-won post-World War II peace. According to Li, the MSC offers a forum for nations to discuss issues and, to a certain extent, come to agreements.
On the sidelines, he asserted that the U.S. handling of the balloon incident had been “unimaginable” and “hysterical”, and an “absurd” act that violated international norms.
“There are so many balloons all over the world, so is the United States going to shoot all of them down?”, he said. “Washington wants to use Kiev to defeat Moscow. But defeating a nuclear power puts the world at enormous risk. The US is engaging in adventurism, but Europe will pay the price,” he noted.
Analysts do not completely rule out the potential that the US will use the meeting to exert pressure on China by bringing Russia and China together, connecting the Ukraine issue with the situation on the other side of the Taiwan Straits.
According to Cui Hongjian, the MSC presents China with a chance to counter and rectify the US narrative. The prosperity of Europe is dependent on peace, but Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations at the China Foreign Affairs University, told the Global Times on Friday that Europe is experiencing a “unspeakable embarrassment” in dealing with the problem. Europe, the main sufferer of the crisis between Ukraine and Russia, has grown increasingly angry that the US pulled it into the situation for Washington’s own gain, but they are unable to publicly voice their displeasure. The fundamental challenge to European security, according to Li, is how to stop the US from holding Europe hostage.
The MSC’s future is rather bleak because of transatlantic saboteur, but without discussions, things would be far worse. This is the reason that China and other nations that value peace are prepared to take part in an initiative to find a workable solution to the situation, Li continued.
Amplified Voices for a New System in Iran
According to the former crown prince of Iran, the country has a chance to play a constructive role in the world and its neighbourhood, but only if its opposition forces quickly receive assistance from friendly nations to change the way the country is governed.
At the conference, Reza Pahlavi stated that Iran was experiencing a turning moment, driven in part by the requirement to promote women’s equality. The event’s organisers launched the main Saturday sessions with a panel discussion including the activist Masih Alinejad and US senator Robert Menendez after declining to invite Iranian authorities to the gathering.
“What Iran needs is solidarity in the principles that we are fighting for and we hope to have the support of any country. We are speaking to representatives to help them understand that our ask is for countries to be unified with us in the same way you expect us to be unified on our side.” Iran expects the same unity on Iranian cause from the western nations as they demonstrate for Ukraine.
The assertion that the Iranian people were the victims of sanctions and the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2015 was rejected by Ms. Alinejad. Many, according to her, were angry over how Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the IRGC leadership misappropriated all the funds.
“We don’t want the West to impose sanctions on the Iranian people, but we Iranians are the ones who are most aware that during the time we were subject to sanctions, money was given to 51 entities, one of which is the morality police, who harass women and tell them to cover themselves in public. The money went to the IRGC and to Ayatollah Khamenei’s son. The money supplied to them under the arrangement by the US administration and the Europeans goes to these Iranian dictators. Because of this, I don’t think sanctions themselves harm people. They should fight corruption, and I firmly believe that strategic sanctions can be beneficial. I want Western nations to treat Iran with the same unity in this case as they have shown for the Russia-Ukraine conflict (their support being on Ukraine’s side)”, she said.
MSC will bring more insightful discussions and underpin some crucial measures to be taken by the international actors amidst the crisis countries are facing today. This write-up shall be updated as more updates become available.
