The Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction (SIGAR) released its 58th Quarterly Report to Congress examining the $146.68 billion U.S. reconstruction effort in Afghanistan.
Below are the key points from the report:
— Since the Taliban takeover in August 2021, the United States has appropriated or otherwise made available over $8 billion in assistance to Afghan citizens and refugees. This includes more than $2 billion, primarily for humanitarian and development aid in Afghanistan, and over $3.5 billion transferred to a newly created Afghan Fund. In addition, the United States obligated $2.7 billion in FY 2022 for the Department of Defense to transport, house, and feed Afghan evacuees.
(Page 7)
— It is SIGAR’s judgment that the Taliban regime’s institutionalized abuse of women raises the important question for policymakers of whether the United States can continue providing aid to Afghanistan without benefitting or propping up the Taliban. First, the Taliban regime derives revenue from this aid in the form of “licenses,” “taxes,” and “administrative fees” imposed on NGOs and their employees as a condition for operating in Afghanistan. Second, U.S. aid to Afghanistan, whether humanitarian in nature or of some other kind, may inadvertently confer legitimacy onto the Taliban, both internationally and domestically. Third, the Taliban’s erasure of women from public life has substantially hindered or prevented the provision of humanitarian aid. Fourth, a record two-thirds of the country, or some 28.3 million Afghans, are depending on international food assistance this winter, according to the UN.
(Page 1)
— In December, Gallup released findings from a survey of Afghans conducted in July and August 2022, one year after the Taliban seized power. They found, “life is worse for Afghans than it has been at any point during the past decade—or for anyone else on the planet.” When asked to rate their lives on a scale from zero to 10, 26% of respondents said “zero.” Approximately 98% of Afghan women and 97% of Afghan men rate their lives below “four,” the threshold at which Gallup considers them to be “suffering.” This compares to the 94% “suffering” average reported by respondents last year.
(Page 67)
— On December 20, the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA) head Martin Griffiths reported that UN agencies and NGO partners have been conducting authorized transactions with Taliban-controlled entities when needed for the delivery of humanitarian aid and basic services. Such transactions include paying withholding taxes on income provided to Afghan staff, sales taxes, property taxes, fees for visas and work permits, vehicle registration duties, electricity and water bills, and customs payments to import goods. According to Griffiths, these payments are essential to ongoing humanitarian activities. Neither the State Department nor SIGAR have visibility on how much revenue Taliban-controlled ministries may be collecting from fees and other payments from UN agencies or NGOs.
(Page 70)
— On December 24, the Taliban ordered all local and international nongovernmental organizations working in Afghanistan to terminate their female employees. In response, UN agencies and most NGOs have partially or fully suspended operations, saying they cannot reach female recipients without female staff.
(Page 58)
— On December 29, deputy head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), Ramiz Alakbarov, told reporters that an agreement had been reached with the Taliban to allow female NGO staff to continue working in the health sector. The Taliban’s acting health minister made similar statements to reporters, though no official decree to this effect has been issued. According to State Department, many health organizations reported the situation was unclear since the Taliban did not issue any exemptions in writing.
(Page 62)
— Despite Taliban assurances that health care workers are exempt, the Taliban’s ban on female NGO workers has already hurt Afghanistan’s health sector significantly. As of January 10, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that 11 health care NGOs have suspended delivery of health services entirely, and five others have suspended operations partially. Some 280 health facilities have fully suspended operations, while 42 partially halted work. In December, 13.3 million Afghans had no access to health care, according to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF); WHO estimates that two million Afghans now have limited-to-no access to essential life-saving health services.
(Page 62)
— In addition to banning female aid workers, the Taliban escalated its interference into international humanitarian assistance operations this quarter, detaining humanitarian workers and trying to influence or control activities. Aid groups were particularly concerned about Taliban pressure on relief workers to disclose personal biographic details. USAID reported that Taliban officials increased their unannounced visits to implementing partner offices, requests for information (including work plans, budgets, operations, and personnel), requests for signed memorandums-of-understanding (MOUs) and demands to be more involved in project decision making and implementation…The majority of USAID project activities were not hindered by these actions.
(Page 66)
— USAID’s new policy [on MOUs with the Taliban] prohibits its implementing partners from signing MOUs with Taliban authorities unless it is submitted to USAID for prior review and approval. USAID had previously directed its implementing partners not to enter into MOUs with the Taliban because the United States does not recognize the Taliban as the government of Afghanistan and USAID officials would not be able to witness the document signing, as required by USAID grant agreements. This quarter, USAID told SIGAR MOU approvals may be given “on a case-by-case basis and must be based on the justification that an MOU is necessary for implementation of activities or for the safety of partner staff or beneficiaries.” USAID added that MOUs should facilitate necessary communication and coordination by the implementing partner with local authorities to carry out activities, facilitate the safety of staff and beneficiaries, or if it is required for project registration, permits, license plate transfers, and other necessary authorizations, provided that communication and coordination occurs at the lowest level possible and the MOU does not call for interactions with individuals listed on Treasury’s OFAC Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List.
(Page 67)
— Afghanistan continues to face the highest levels of hunger in the world, according to the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP). The United Nations’ preliminary humanitarian response plan for 2023 estimates that two-thirds of the Afghan population, or 28.3 million people, will need life-saving humanitarian and protection assistance this year, up from 24.4 million in 2022 and 18.4 million at the beginning of 2021.
(Page 63)
— The UN projected nearly half of the population—20 million people—will face crisis or emergency levels of food insecurity between November 2022 and March 2023. This is an increase from the 18.9 million previously projected at these levels through November 2022. The WFP also reported in December that four million Afghans were acutely malnourished, including 3.2 million children under the age of five.
(Page 64)
— While the worst-case scenarios for widespread famine projected a year ago were averted due to massive amounts of international humanitarian aid, the severity of food insecurity is now plateauing with six million people at the near-famine/emergency level of food insecurity—one of the highest such figures in the world.
(Page 64)
— The Afghan economy has not fully stabilized after a year of economic contraction, but the pace of deterioration has slowed. The World Bank projects that Afghanistan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) fell by an accumulated 30–35% between 2021 and 2022, and the United Nations estimates that 97% of Afghans now live below the poverty line.
(Page 58)
— In December, the WFP reported facing a net funding shortfall of $958.88 million to sustain operations through June 2023. While the full 2023 Humanitarian Response Plan has not yet been formally published, the UN OCHA reports that it seeks $4.6 billion to assist 23.7 million Afghans with life-saving and protection assistance in 2023. Notably, the $4.44 billion appeal for the 2022 HRP was not fully realized, with $3.02 billion funded as of January 3, 2023.
(Page 71-72)
— The Treasury Department reports that $3.5 billion in Afghanistan central bank assets have been transferred to the Fund for the Afghan People’s (Afghan Fund) account at the Bank for International Settlements in Switzerland. The $3.5 billion is part of $7 billion in assets that Da Afghanistan Bank, Afghanistan’s central bank, had deposited in the United States prior to the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021. Approximately $2 billion in Afghan central bank assets held in Europe and the United Arab Emirates may also end up in the Fund.
(Page 72-73)
— On November 18, USAID announced it would provide $20 million for the “Grain from Ukraine” initiative, which supports UN World Food Programme efforts to purchase and ship Ukrainian grain to provide food assistance to countries currently facing the most severe hunger crises, including Afghanistan.
(Page 85)
— On December 20, 2022, the Taliban announced an immediate ban on women’s higher education, triggering widespread condemnation. Combined with earlier decrees, nearly all Afghan women above grade six are now barred from formal education. These included closing secondary schools that had briefly re-opened to girls in the Paktiya Province; expelling girls who had reached puberty from primary schools; and prohibiting women from pursuing university studies in agriculture, civil engineering, journalism, and other subjects the Taliban deemed “too difficult” for women.
(Page 89-90)
— Afghanistan is the only country in the world where women and girls are not allowed to attend secondary schools and universities. No Muslim country or Islamic organization has expressed support for the Taliban’s ban. Instead, the Taliban’s policy has been met with widespread condemnation throughout the Islamic world. The Saudi foreign ministry expressed “astonishment and regret” at women being denied their right to a university education, saying the Taliban’s decision was “astonishing in all Islamic countries” and should be reversed. The Saudi Council of Islamic Scholars likewise issued a statement underscoring that the Taliban’s policies were not based on Islam.
(Page 91)
— The Taliban have so far not faced any significant consequences from the international community in response to their expanding bans on women’s education, vocational training, and professional participation. State Department reported that they have not amended contributions to UN programming and efforts to support the Afghan people, adding that the Taliban have not indicated that they will moderate their restrictive policies towards girls’ education in exchange for more international aid or other incentives.
(Page 61)
— UNAMA reported that at least 22 anti-Taliban groups claim to operate in Afghanistan, though none have taken control of significant territory. State Department said some former Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) members and former government officials, particularly non-Pashtuns, have joined these groups. However, of the hundreds of thousands of Afghans who served in the ANDSF, it is likely only a small percentage have joined. State informed SIGAR that it is aware of a small number of former ANDSF members who may have gone to fight on both sides of the Russia-Ukraine war.
(Page 100-101)
— According to State Department, the presence of the late al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul in July indicates that at least some in the Taliban continue to maintain a relationship with al-Qaeda. State Department informed SIGAR that they continue to press the Taliban to uphold their counterterrorism commitments under the Doha Agreement, and also continue to monitor al-Qaeda’s presence in the country. In early December, the Taliban Ministry of Interior spokesperson claimed there are no terrorist groups within Afghanistan that can pose a threat to other countries. Conversely, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said the Taliban have shown that they are “either unable or unwilling” to live up to their counterterrorism commitments.
(Page 105)
— The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) reported in November that opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan tripled to $1.4 billion (32% increase) between 2021 to 2022, despite the Taliban’s April 3, 2022, ban. UNODC estimated that the area under poppy cultivation reached 233,000 hectares (the third highest ever recorded) for the 2022 season, primarily concentrated in Afghanistan’s southwest region. UNODC said the Taliban takeover and decree sparked fears about product scarcity and the future of the narcotics market, with the result that the per-kilogram price of opium doubled, increasing income 300% for farmers.
(Page 116-117)
— While many industries in Afghanistan are suffering, data from UNODC’s Drugs Monitoring Platform found that opiates trafficking has not been affected since the Taliban seized power in August 2021. Afghanistan continues to provide 80% of the global supply through various cross-national networks.
(Page 117)
Full Report: https://www.sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyreports/2023-01-30qr.pdf
