The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit will be held in September among growing global concerns regarding the Ukraine war, the global commodity prices, the situation in the middle east, and a growing new alliance against the U.S. which calls for different rules of the business. The United States, being a hegemonic power, has been dictating terms of the world on trade, geopolitics and forming alliances to support/sustain that hegemony, and so on. But growing powers like China are now calling for a different mechanism for the functioning of the global order by launching their development programs and by forming alliances based on the idea of cooperation, democracy, and justice in the world, rather than that of a single country. SCO and BRICs and alternative platforms presented through which the status quo is challenged, and thus the SCO conference in September is much anticipated.
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited China at the beginning of February 2022 on a one-day visit to discuss global security and international relations. The joint statement was worth reading for it laid bare the case for new world order, as the statement read: “The sides [China and Russia] call on all States to …… respect the rights of peoples to independently determine the development paths of their countries and the sovereignty and the security and development interests of States, to protect the United Nations-driven international architecture and the international law-based world order”. And perhaps the most interesting part was: “Certain States’ attempts to impose their own “democratic standards” on other countries, to monopolize the right to assess the level of compliance with democratic criteria, to draw dividing lines based on the grounds of ideology, including by establishing exclusive blocs and alliances of convenience, prove to be nothing but flouting of democracy and go against the spirit and true values of democracy. Such attempts at hegemony pose serious threats to global and regional peace and stability and undermine the stability of the world order.” (The whole joint-statement was a wonderful lesson in international relations)
This joint statement by Russia and China, two of the fiercest rivals of the United States, challenged its hegemony over the global economy and global politics by vouching for the redistribution of power and for the recognition of development programs not as a threat to the supremacy/interests of a certain country/bloc but rather as a product of the leadership trying to transform regions through economic development resulting from the interdependence and interrelation of countries/regions. But the United States is well aware that it will change the strategic and security dynamics of the region along with the evident economic agenda.
There are two important developments in the regions since then: the Ukraine war which gave rise to a new old war that is hybrid and the formation of new alliances such as that of Russia, Iran, and Turkey.
The Ukraine war and the resulting hybrid policy of nations in the middle east is a particularly interesting one. While the Soviet era cold war was bipolar and the stark division was there for decades, this new cold war is hybrid, where the middle eastern powers are not taking any sides but are rather looking after themselves. For instance, Biden’s recent visit to the middle east was without any results; he met 9 Arab leaders from countries including KSA, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, Oman, and others, but failed to convince any to side with the U.S. in the new cold war against China and Russia despite reassurances that the United States will play an active and engaged role in the affairs of the Middle East. Biden could not even persuade them to increase oil production in a bid to ease the pressure on global oil prices and its impact on the west, and instead, they will carry out their energy and trade deals with Moscow as usual keeping their interest as a top priority. These middle eastern countries have witnessed and faced the consequences of the Soviet era cold-war and thus are more pragmatic in their approach. Also, these states are aware of the declining power of the U.S. in the affairs of the middle east and the recent withdrawal from Afghanistan (its how and why) is glaring proof. This hybrid policy is even embraced by its closest ally in the middle east: Israel. As an analyst rightly pointed out: “important Middle Eastern players want American arms and American aid but not America’s advice”.
Another important development was Putin’s visit to Iran alongside Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, called by commentators a landmark moment in the current geopolitical situation. Though the summit, which happened shortly after Biden’s summit, centered around a holistic agenda of geostrategic issues such as the Ukraine war, Syrian war, and the likes, a key MoU was also struck between the Iranian national energy company National Iranian Oil Company and Russian national energy company Gazprom worth $40 billion. This is another major development and termed by some as another step in the construction of a new world order, where two countries that are under strict sanctions from the west-and particularly the United States-are irking for a deal that would make ease their tensions; Iran would receive the critical technological infrastructure while Russia would access to the ports to transfer its energy products. The two countries also agreed to switch to settlements in their local currencies and the distribution and operation of such a financial system in place. The 14th BRICS summit stressed on similar sort of cooperation to formulate and give rise to new geopolitical realities. This whole mechanism and approach of these nations (China, Russia, Turkey, and so on and on) and how they are shaping new political, social, and economic realities based on cooperation and benefit is a fundamentally different approach by the United State of a zero-sum game, proved by Biden’s recent visit where he wanted nations to act to support/strengthen U.S. hegemony in the international order.
On the other hand, the CIA director, Willian Burns, played down the summit held in Iran terming the optics opposed to the realities between the two nations (Russia and Iran) based on their history and as energy rivals. He further added that this cooperation is a marriage of necessity as they need each other, as both the countries are under strict sanctions and want to “break out of political isolation”, and that there are limits to it. The strategy seems to be underplaying the new troika hoping that their historical tensions would create a rift between such alliances and make them ineffective.
However, the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, to be held in September 2022 in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, is another step in the strengthening of this regional reorientation with Iran set to be admitted to the organization and with Belarus also interested. The agenda, among other items, includes an increased focus on similar arrangements for increasing the share of national currencies in international trade. SCO, with its second extension and as an alternative platform for international cooperation, is changing the political, economic, strategic, and geopolitical dynamics of the region and presents an alternative model and shapes a new world order through new development arrangements like OBOR and different power dynamics where countries can decide for themselves instead of being dictated.
It will be interesting to observe how this new hybrid and pragmatic approach of nations to this new cold war plays out in the region, how sustainable the reorientation of power is, and how the new alliances led by China and Russia shape a new world order (if they will).
