Iranian President Ebrahim Raesi’s death in a helicopter crash has sparked global concern. As a hardline advocate for Islamic Sharia law, his presidency was marked by protests and tensions with Israel. His passing creates a power vacuum, with Khamenei’s son potentially succeeding him. The impact on Iran’s foreign, regional, and domestic policy is significant, particularly regarding the nuclear program and economy, which is already under heavy sanctions and high inflation. The appointment of a successor will be crucial in shaping Iran’s future in the Middle East.
The unfortunate and tragic incident of the death of Ebrahim Raesi, Iranian President, along with other top Iranian officials, in an unusual helicopter crash has sent a shock wave across the world. The President was on an official visit to Azerbaijan where both counterparts inaugurated a new joint dam project. On the way back from Azerbaijan the late President’s U.S.-made Bell 212 helicopter crashed in the mountainous terrain and icy weather, officials and state media announced on Monday, after search teams located the wreckage in East Azerbaijan province. In the meantime, the fatal death of Raesi has given rise to the question that to what extent the foreign, regional, and domestic policy of Iran can be impacted?
Raesi,63, emerged from theocracy to an uncompromising president. He took office of Presidency in 2021 and became the eighth president. Being considered one of the hardline advocates of Islamic Sharia law in Iran, Raesi was known for his absolute implementation of “hijab and chastity law”. Soon after he took charge, his presidency was followed by nationwide protests of women and girls, calling for the abolishment of Islamic laws of the state. The government dealt with those protestors with force and a country-wide crackdown was carried out against them. Along with this, another factor that shaped his tenure was the 7 October 2023, Hamas attack on Israeli settlements. Iran has been constantly accused of supporting Hamas against Israel. Furthermore, President Raesi did not introduce any new policy doctrine but carried the already inherited policy plans.
The objective and end point of those policies were expanding and strengthening regional influence. The horrific incident occurred at a time when the supreme leader of Iran, Khamenei was frail. Due to favouritism from hardline factions inside the Assembly of Experts, Raesi was seen as the supreme leader’s successor.
Khamenei has expressed his condolences over Raesi’s death and committed to no state affairs’ disruption. For the smooth and timely running of state affairs, First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber has been notified as interim president and will serve the country for 50 days. The member council which also includes Mokhbar will organize presidential elections within the specified timeframe.
This is a crucial and delicate moment for Iran in many spheres. Firstly, Iran’s nuclear program is under greater ambiguity after the statement of the late Raesi where he projected the expected change of nuclear doctrine in case of any perceived threat. However, it is evident from history that the demise of any Iranian official had never impacted Iran’s nuclear policies to a greater extent. This is because the decision powers of Iranian doctrines are never vested in the hands of a single person. So, it is expected that the nuclear program of Iran will follow the already planned course which is to gain the maximum uranium enrichment capacity. According to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran is just weeks away from acquiring weapon-grade uranium.
Currently, Iran has enriched uranium up to 60% whereas it requires 90% enrichment to transform it into weapon-grade uranium. Putting the nuclear program at a faster pace highlights the growing intention of the Iranian leadership to deter the growing hostilities with all-time rival Israel. The unilateral withdrawal of the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has left an excuse for the Iranian authorities to secure the greater pace of its nuclear objectives. In case of successful enrichment, the era of Nuclear Nonproliferation will meet its end and proliferation will go beyond the borders. Moreover, Iran and Saudi Arabia have been in a peace accord and restarted their long-halted diplomatic connection. Even Saudi Arabia will not hesitate to start its nuclear program in response to the growing power imbalance in the nuclear race.
Furthermore, Raesi was considered a hard-liner who played a huge role in confronting Israel and the West, especially the US. The crash happened at a time when the Middle East was surrounded by an uncontrolled chain of escalations. For the last few months, Israel has been engaged in the Gaza conflict in response to the Hamas attack on Israeli settlements. Iran has publicly never supported Hamas but has been accused of backing them and Hezbollah.
Under the presidency of Raesi, Iran launched the first-ever offense against Israel where Iran responded by launching missiles and drones at mainland Israel in retaliation for bombing the Iranian embassy in Syria. Last month Raesi stated that Israel should be brought to justice for the crimes committed in occupied territory. Though the attack was intercepted by the Israeli defence system but alarmed the bells in Israel about the potential Iranian attack capabilities. The crash however has given rise to another concern. The high officials of Middle Eastern countries will be the easiest targets of proxies. There is a chance of an increase in the intensity of proxy attacks by both rivals. The Houthis in Yemen are already attacking and seizing the ships and it is believed that Houthis are sponsored both economically and militarily by the Iranian regime which Iran denies every time.
Raesi was viewed as the leading candidate to succeed the 85-year-old Khamenei, the supreme Leader. His death has created a power vacuum within Iran. There is a sense of chaos in the country and the supreme leader himself took social media to project stability. It is now the test of time for the supreme leader to choose the one who is loyal to the greater Iranian cause. There are rumours that Khamenei’s son is expected to get his father’s position but it is still unclear. The majority of Iranians are of the view that how would the son be given the seat as Iranians overthrew the monarchy back in 1979. The Iranian economy is under heavy sanctions and the inflation rate is likely to cross 40%. Along with all this, the new regime has to face public outrage due to its distinct domestic policies.
To sum up, the tragic death of Ibrahim Raesi and other top officials in a helicopter crash has added more uncertainty to the already volatile situation of the Middle East as well as Iran itself. Being the ultimate authority, Khamenei has the ball in hand. He can change the course of history by taking a pragmatic approach and making the best decision that suits the Iranian people and its fading economy. The appointment of a successor will be the turning point of Iran’s fate in the Middle East.
