Political Economy of Arab World and China

Shakeel Ramay

Political economy of Arab world is complicated and complex. It is complicated as it involves multiple cultures and regions. It is complex because processes are run by diverse actors and influenced by byzantine factors. Arab League is representative organization of Arab world. It is spread over two continents Asia and Africa, which have their own unique culture and societies. It is union of diverse countries in terms of economic size, population, development and geography. Nonetheless, the economic diversity is very low at domestic level, especially among the rich countries, which are dependent on the fossil fuels and somehow on tourism. Although, the region is blessed with humongous natural resources, but the resources are proving to be resource curse due to great powers interference. The great powers have forge alliances for pursuing their agenda, which have turned many countries into battlefield.  The Arab countries are now home to the most violent conflicts.

The conflicts have inflicted massive human losses and many countries have been engulfed by the trap of poverty and miseries.  Once the rich and decent countries like Libya, Iraq and Syria are today presenting a dismal picture. Although, the conflicts are not new to region, but the conflicts started from 1980s introduced new means of destruction and tension in addition to existing freedom struggle of Palestine. The new wave of conflicts started with Iraq-Iran war and is still going on in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya. The region also witnesses the rise of the deadly terrorist organization the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. It engulfed the whole region in terror. It spread like wildfire. Hundreds of people were killed, and it started to spread in other regions of the world. It also conducted terrorist activities in safe and stable countries. It was controlled with great efforts but still it shows its presence through different channels.

It is disturbing to note that great powers in alliance with regional countries are using these conflicts to fulfil their own agenda. They are violating the basic human norms and ethics in determining their stances and alliances. The only permanent factor which dictate the decision is self-interest. It is evident from the changing position of the great power’s alliances according to their respective economic, military and diplomatic goals. For example, the supporters of State in Syria are supporting rebels in Yemen and vice versa.  No matter, who is supporting whom, but humanity is losing, and human beings are being killed and suffering. The sufferings have many faces including poverty, loss of dignity and displacement. The conflicts have triggered massive migration and a huge number of migrants are roaming in the streets of Europe and other countries. These people are in search of lost dignity and decent living.

In such circumstances, how region can come out of deadly conflicts and move on path of development. The simple answer is that the region needs a player or partner, which do not have interest in exporting weapon but in building economic relationship. The cooperation must be based on the principle of win-win model. It should be not extracted in nature and do not violate the human development principles. China has emerged as such player or partner, especially during the last two decades. China is keen to establish economic linkages without indulging in conflicts. The argument is also supported by historical facts and engagements, as China never engaged or picked sides in conflicts of the Arab world. It always tried to be development partner and avoid indulgence in conflicts.           

Thus, China does not have any baggage, which assign China unique status and make it acceptable to everyone. China is cognizant of this fact. Besides, China also recognize the potential and development needs of the members of the Arab League. Hence, in 2006 China in partnership with Arab world established China-Arab Cooperation Forum. Since then, China and Arab countries are working together. The forum has been dedicated to find ways for mutual development and prosperity. It is a successful venture and it is producing positive outcome. The reason of the success is that China and Arab countries are backing their statements and commitments by tangible action. In 2018, China announced that it will be investing US$ 23 billion through the forum in the sectors of the energy, tourism and infrastructure.

China has proved as reliable development partner even during the COVID-19 episode. Although, China is already among the big importers of oil and oil products from the region but during the COVID-19 it is trying to expand import to support to domestic economies. Saudi Arabia, the major exporter of oil to China has exported almost a third of all its oil export, to China in May 2020. The contribution of China in oil export of Iraq 50 percent. Moreover, in April 2020, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE recorded the largest export of oil in term of quantity, to China. Arab countries are also reciprocating by increasing imports and investment.

Despite, all these good points China needs to be very careful in devising its future cooperation with Arab world on three accounts. First, China needs to be cognizant of the fact that Arab League consists of diverse members. It has rich economies like Saudi Arabi (GDP US$792 billion), UAE (GDP US$421 billion), Qatar (GDP US$ 183 billion), Kuwait (GDP US$ 134 billion) and poor economies like Comoros, Palestine, Sudan and Somalia etc. The division is also evident in the case of HDI, HCI, employment ratio etc. It also has countries which has hot conflicts like Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq. On top of that Palestine is outstanding issue for decades. There are g countries which are competing for the leadership of the Union. Besides, the Gulf Cooperation Council, plays a key and determining role in decision making in Arab League. However, during the last few years the GCC is facing division among the member countries. Qatar has been sidelined due to its close relations with other countries. Although the severity of the problem is on decline but still there are issues, which needs to be solved.  

Second important element would be the China-Iran relationship. China and Iran are on way to sign US$ 400 billion deal. It is a comprehensive deal as it includes oil purchase, investment in infrastructure, energy sector, trade, tourism etc. The Arab countries would be looking at it very closely, as Arab and Iran are in contest for the leadership of the region. Although, in the past China avoided to pick the sides but it would be interesting to watch how China avoid in future. The disturbance in one part of region would have implication for the China in other part of the region.

Third area of caution would be the China’s relationship with Israel. As, both Arab and Iranian consider Israel an occupier of Arab land. Arab world is the major grieved party and it is struggling for decades to find a sustainable solution for Palestine. China is conscious of the fact and it has echoed its support for Palestine during the last China- Arab Forum, 2020. President Xi also called Palestine’s President and offered support to combat COVID-19. It will definitely annoy Israel and Israel will try to play its cards. Rather, Israel has already started to play its cards and separation of UK from Huawei 5-G can also be analyzed in this context.    

In conclusion, the future cooperation with Arab League and dealing with regional countries like Iran and Israel would be a real test of wisdom for China. The success on Arab front would be key to unlock potential of region. Besides, it will open doors for MENA region. It will also help to eliminate regional conflicts and bring sustainable peace and development, which is direly need commodity for the decades in region.