Outline
The first quarter of 2025 saw some promising trends in the security landscape of Pakistan, with i) the fatalities of militants and insurgents outnumbering the cumulative losses of civilians and security forces personnel for the first time in twelve years, ii) notably less fatal losses among civilians and security forces personnel compared to Q4 2024, and iii) nearly 13% reduction in overall violence.
Despite progress, KP and Balochistan remain epicenters of violence, accounting for 98% of all fatalities, with attacks growing bolder and militant tactics evolving – including the unprecedented hijacking of Jaffar Express. Projections warn of over 3,600 fatalities by year-end if current trends persist, potentially making 2025 one of Pakistan’s deadliest years.
Key findings of the Q1 2025 Security Report, issued by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), Pakistan.
Overall Toll
During Q1 2025, Pakistan witnessed 897 violence-linked fatalities and 542 injuries among civilians, security personnel and outlaws. The tally of casualties, totaling 1439, stemmed from as many as 354 incidents of violence including terror attacks and counter-terror operations. Compared to Q4 2024 where 1028 fatalities were recorded, these figures mark nearly 13% decline in overall violence.
Regional Impact
Majority of the fatalities and incidents of violence were recorded in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces, with both accounting for over 98% of all fatalities and 94% incidents, cumulatively.
Individually, while the former province suffered over 63% of all violence related fatalities, compared to Q4 2024, it witnessed a promising 18% reduction in violence. Similarly, the latter province suffered 35% of all fatalities in the period under review, and compared to last quarter, it recorded an alarming 15% surge in violence. The comparison disregards surge recorded in other provinces/ regions as the number of fatalities remain very low.
Victims-Specific Analysis
Another promising highlight of his quarter was that the outlaws’ fatalities outnumbered the fatalities suffered by civilians and security forces combined (495 vs 402).
Against 495 outlaws eliminated, the civilians and security personnel suffered 402 fatalities, which account for nearly 19% less losses compared to outlaws.
Their combined losses accounted for nearly 45% of all fatalities compared to outlaws’ making up over 55% of total recorded this quarter.
It is for the first time in twelve years that the number of outlaws’ fatalities surpassed the combined fatalities of civilians and security forces.
Equally positive, the civilians and security personnel suffered almost 50% and 13% less fatal losses, respectively, in the period under review compared to Q4 2024.
In contrast, the fatalities of outlaws including militants and insurgents increased by over 20%.
Outfit Claims
Based on the claims and the newspaper reports, the number of fatalities from violence claimed by the militant and insurgent outfits appears to have dropped in Q1 2025 from 316 in Q4 2024 to 229, marking a 28% decrease.
Over 500 people suffered violence (313 fatalities and 217 injuries) during the holy month of Ramadan (March 2025), with various outlawed groups, including the TTP, TTP-Gul Bahadur Group, ISKP, BLA, and Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army (SRA), proudly claiming responsibility for these attacks – Tables 3 & 4.
Courtesy: CRSS
