Lately, there has been a consensus within and outside the country that China is returning to its isolationist days. What has sparked this sentiment can be attributed to various factors. Firstly, an article recently published by a Chinese historian titled A Fresh Look at the Isolationist Policy in the Ming and Qing dynasties, has been read with some interest by the local population and started a debate within. The article argues that China`s feudal rulers from the 16th to 19th centuries, did not pursue a policy of complete isolation, as is widely believed, but one of self-restriction, designed to protect the Chinese national interests and sovereignty and ward off Western invasion and colonization. The article has raised eyebrows within the international community and questions whether such sentiments, as expressed in the article, will sway China away from its existing open-door policy to the West.
It was their late leader Deng Xiaoping, who almost 40 years ago, realized that China needs to adopt an open-door policy to the world for it to become a modern and prosperous nation. He is widely considered the founding father of modern China as his vision helped China become the advanced country it is today, with the second largest economy in the world. No small achievement by any standards.
Secondly, to compound the worries of the international community, China`s zero-Covid policy, although seen as essential, is hurting its population. The country is amidst an economic slump, mainly due to growing fatigue over Covid and a recent heatwave that has caused drought and slowed the economy. In certain regions, including within the Uighur population, there is growing unrest amongst the people over the shortage of food items and their anger over strict isolation rules imposed by the government. Additionally, there is an increased resentment and accusations that the government has failed in its Covid-free policy. The psychological impact of isolation is destroying the general morale of the public, who is running out of patience.
The timing of this unrest could not come at a worse time for President Xi. The once in every five-year held National Communist Party Congress is due to convene next month. The general expectation is to re-elect President Xi for the third term as Party Chief, which will be a first since the People`s Congress’s norm is to allow only two terms in Office for a President. As predicted, his re-election will make him the Paramount leader of China since Deng Xiaoping.
Some analysts claim that the strict isolation-oriented Covid policy adopted by the government is to quell any possible unrest before this important meeting. However, the government claims that it cannot afford another outbreak, given the size of its population. Whatever the reason, President Xi has to conciliate his people and convince them that the existing Covid measures are in place for their betterment and are temporary.
Ultimately, the upcoming convention of the National Communist Congress will be significant. Not only will President Xi lay out the course for China’s next leap forward but also its future policy towards the West, and, dealing with the US, which has publicly branded China as their number one enemy.
Rest assured that the world, and the Chinese people included, will closely follow the outcome of the next Congress meeting, hoping that China, feeling threatened by the West, continues to adopt an open-door policy in its relationship with the outside world. The stakes cannot be higher.
