Germany hosted the 59th Munich Security Conference from February 17-19. Europe and the rest of the globe looked for a better solution to terminate or at least lessen the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has caused casualties, division, and recession, as the one anniversary of the commencement of the military conflict approaches. Many key decisions were made expected and talks were held among representatives from all over the world. Eyes were also set on the China-US meeting on the sidelines, following the controversial ‘spy balloon episode’. Activists called for a new system in Iran. Taliban were also discussed – the de facto government’s repressive measures against women, non-inclusive governance, and security threats remain grave concerns for the international community.
The West’s ability (and resources) to continue supporting Ukraine in what could turn into a protracted war of attrition were major concerns for the foreign dignitaries and defense officials attending the Munich Security Conference (MSC) this year. This was in addition to dealing with a more significant long-term challenge in the east as China shifts into the role of the West’s next great superpower rival.
“The war in Ukraine matters also for [Asia] because if Russian President [Vladimir] Putin wins, that will send the clear message to all the leaders in Asia and Beijing that when they use military force, they succeed,” said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in an interview with SitRep before the conference. China, he said, “is keenly watching what occurs in Ukraine, and the conclusion of that… will affect their decisions, their calculations on what to do in their vicinity.”
Almost 40 heads of state and government as well as hundreds of decision-makers and security specialists from about 100 different countries were all present at the MSC. According to news sources, the organizers did not invite Iran or Russia.
Leaders Side with Ukraine, No Place for Russia
As expected, the conflict in Ukraine has taken center stage.
President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the gathering via video link, pleading for a quickening of the supply of weaponry and cautioning that only triumph over Russia was an option.
The friends of Ukraine were urged to “intensify” their support by French President Emmanuel Macron and to get ready for a protracted conflict with the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Macron added that given Russia’s ongoing aggressiveness, this was not the time to start a dialogue with it. Though German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President both expressed their “continued backing” for Ukraine during Friday’s inaugural ceremony, analysts, however, felt that the military conflict’s growing effects had given Europe a sense of urgency to end the problem, as Macron also stated that it was vitally essential to start drafting the conditions of a settlement for Ukraine.
The European Union wants to work with the defense sector of the bloc to increase the production of ammunition that is desperately required on the front lines in Ukraine and to restock military supplies at home. AT MSC, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen suggested the bloc should do what it did during the pandemic to prepare for the large-scale production of a COVID vaccine. We may consider, for instance, advanced purchase agreements that provide the defense industry the chance to invest in production lines right away to make them faster and able to produce more, she said. She further emphasized that the bloc could not hold off on restocking its military supplies or sending supplies to Ukraine.
Although Europe’s leaders pledged to increase their investment in weaponry, Wang Yi called for peace in Ukraine without specifying how to do it or what exactly that implies for the region.
As NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg noted, Ukraine is consuming munitions faster than Europe can produce replacements, so member states must collaborate with the defense sector to increase the production of those weapons.
Boris Pistorius, Scholz’s replacement as defense minister, carried on in the same vein and campaigned for more military spending within Europe and NATO. He went beyond Scholz’s commitment to reach the NATO goal of allocating 2% of GDP to defense spending and urged the NATO alliance to accept 2% as a minimum commitment while working for higher. Despite Scholz’s additional €100 billion increase to the Bundeswehr budget, Germany presently does not fulfill the 2% target and is not anticipated to do so for several years.
While publicly declining repeated requests from Ukraine to supply fighter jets, Scholz stayed silent about these requests. He reiterated that Germany remains firmly behind Kyiv but cautioned against making rash choices and the risks of escalation.
Russian officials were not invited to the meeting this year for the first time since the 1990s.
Instead, prominent Kremlin adversaries were politely granted seats, including exiled oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, chess champion Gary Kasparov, and Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of imprisoned opposition politician Alexey Navalny.
Following a meeting with President Maia Sandu of Moldova on the sidelines, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said “Washington was concerned about some of the machinations that we’ve seen coming from Russia to attempt to destabilize the government in Moldova . The US would maintain its “strong support for Moldova in support of its security, independence, and territorial integrity,” Blinken continued. In recent weeks, officials from Moldova and Ukraine have asserted that a Russian scheme was intended to harm the country in eastern Europe that borders Ukraine. Blinken is the most notable Western official to publicly level the same charge.
China presents its pro-peace stance
Wang Yi, the top diplomat of China, is also attending the 59th MSC. The highest-ranking Chinese official to go to Europe since the 20th CPC National Congress is Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and the director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee. He is also the first senior Chinese official to attend the MSC in the three years since the COVID-19 outbreak began, which observers feel demonstrates the importance China has on the gathering.
At his meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday, Wang Yi stated that China has adopted an objective and impartial position and was always committed to promoting peace discussions concerning the Russia-Ukraine dispute, which is the focus of the MSC.
China reaffirmed its readiness to revitalize its ties with Germany and Europe and to broaden cooperation in a variety of areas. At a discussion with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, Wang Yi said that MSC is a crucial international forum, and he expects it to speak out for peace, forge a consensus on cooperation, mutually promote multilateralism, uphold the UN Charter, and protect the hard-won post-World War II peace. According to Li, the MSC offers a forum for nations to discuss issues and, to a certain extent, come to agreements.
On the sidelines, he asserted that the U.S. handling of the balloon incident had been “unimaginable” and “hysterical”, and an “absurd” act that violated international norms.
“There are so many balloons all over the world, so is the United States going to shoot all of them down?”, he said. “Washington wants to use Kyiv to defeat Moscow. But defeating nuclear power puts the world at enormous risk. The US is engaging in adventurism, but Europe will pay the price,” he noted.
Analysts do not completely rule out the potential that the US will use the meeting to exert pressure on China by bringing Russia and China together, connecting the Ukraine issue with the situation on the other side of the Taiwan Strait.
According to Cui Hongjian, the MSC presents China with a chance to counter and rectify the US narrative. The prosperity of Europe is dependent on peace, but Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations at the China Foreign Affairs University, told the Global Times on Friday that Europe is experiencing an “unspeakable embarrassment” in dealing with the problem. Europe, the main sufferer of the crisis between Ukraine and Russia, has grown increasingly angry that the US pulled it into the situation for Washington’n gain, but they are unable to publicly voice their displeasure. The fundamental challenge to European security, according to Li, is how to stop the US from holding Europe, hostage.
The MSC’s future is rather bleak because of the transatlantic saboteur, but without discussions, things would be far worse. This is the reason that China and other nations that value peace are prepared to take part in an initiative to find a workable solution to the situation, Li continued.
Amplified Voices for a New System in Iran
According to the former crown prince of Iran, the country has a chance to play a constructive role in the world and its neighborhood, but only if its opposition forces quickly receive assistance from friendly nations to change the way the country is governed.
At the conference, Reza Pahlavi stated that Iran was experiencing a turning moment, driven in part by the requirement to promote women’s equality. The event organizers launched the main Saturday sessions with a panel discussion including the activist Masih Alinejad and US senator Robert Menendez after declining to invite Iranian authorities to the gathering.
“What Iran needs is solidarity in the principles that we are fighting for and we hope to have the support of any country. We are speaking to representatives to help them understand that our ask is for countries to be unified with us in the same way you expect us to be unified on our side.” Iran expects the same unity on the Iranian cause from the western nations as they demonstrate for Ukraine.
The assertion that the Iranian people were the victims of sanctions and the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2015 was rejected by Ms. Alinejad. Many, according to her, were angry over how Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the IRGC leadership misappropriated all the funds.
“We don’t want the West to impose sanctions on the Iranian people, but we Iranians are the ones who are most aware that during the time we were subject to sanctions, money was given to 51 entities, one of which is the morality police, who harass women and tell them to cover themselves in public. The money went to the IRGC and Ayatollah Khamenei’s son. The money supplied to them under the arrangement by the US administration and the Europeans goes to these Iranian dictators. Because of this, I don’t think sanctions themselves harm people. They should fight corruption, and I firmly believe that strategic sanctions can be beneficial. I want Western nations to treat Iran with the same unity in this case as they have shown for the Russia-Ukraine conflict (their support being on Ukraine’s side)”, she said.
Much-anticipated Blinken-Yi Meeting
Wang Yi met the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Saturday. Blinken emphasized that China’s high-altitude surveillance balloon must never again violate U.S. airspace. After the meeting, Ned Price, a spokesperson for the State Department, said, “The Secretary made clear the United States will not stand for any violation of our sovereignty, and that the PRC’s high altitude surveillance balloon program — which has intruded into the air space of over 40 countries across 5 continents — has been exposed to the world.” Ned Price was using the formal name of China, the People’s Republic of China.
Wang was additionally cautioned by Blinken about “the implications and repercussions if China gives material support to Russia or assistance with systemic sanctions evasion.” According to China’s state-run media, Wang met with Blinken at the request of the U.S., where he expressed China’s “solemn attitude” and pleaded with Washington to “turn course” and mend the relationship’s harm from the U.S.’s “abuse of force.”
The effort was seen as an attempt to ease tension. The two senior diplomats will meet face-to-face for the first time since the United States shot down a Chinese spy balloon earlier this month at the Munich Security Conference. Blinken had to postpone a trip to Beijing because of the incident.
Earlier on Saturday, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris expressed her concern about Beijing’s growing ties to Moscow following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to a crowd at the Munich Security Conference. According to Harris, China’s assistance to Russia throughout its conflict with Ukraine will erode the rule-based system of international law.
A candid exchange on Taiwan also took place, during which the top American diplomat emphasized the significance of “maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” according to the senior State Department official. Beijing and Washington have different approaches to the “One China” concept. The PRC has been asked not to openly misrepresent American policy, according to the U.S., which claims it does not share the PRC’s viewpoint.
Chinese representatives have rejected the Taiwan Relations Act, labeling it “illegal and illegitimate” and the U.S. legislation governing relations with Taiwan. “Let me assure the audience that Taiwan is part of Chinese territory. It has never been a country and it will never be a country in the future,” said Wang Yi.
Leaders call for a Prosperous and Inclusive Afghanistan
The catastrophic humanitarian and economic situation in Afghanistan was a major topic of discussion on Afghanistan. The debate also focused on the country’s worsening security situation and the rising threat of terrorism.
According to the foreign minister of Belgium, Hadja Lahbib, the harsh policies of the Afghan interim government jeopardize Afghanistan’s future, notably the future of women and children.
On Twitter, Lahbib wrote that her country is totally dedicated to helping the Afghan people in every way possible. At the roundtable on Afghanistan, she said that the volatile security situation is a reality in Afghanistan, and efforts should be made to find a solution to this critical challenge posing threats to the security of this country, its neighbors, and beyond.
Pakistani Foreign Minister, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari urged the world community to cooperate with the Afghan Taliban government and combat terrorism by Pakistan’s Foreign Minister. According to Bilawal, the international world and Afghanistan’s neighbors expect the caretaker government to fulfill its commitments to promote women’s education, create a democratically elected government, and discuss potential threats from terrorist organizations like Daesh, TTP, and Al-Qaeda.
Pakistan has often charged the Taliban with giving terrorist organizations safe havens from which to attack Pakistan. The caretaker government will not permit terrorist organizations to function in Afghanistan and represent a threat to the security of Afghanistan’s neighbors or the wider international community, according to Afghan authorities, who have dismissed such unfounded assertions.
Besides the enlisted issues, Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership and other key matters were discussed.
Although the Munich Security Conference is known for encouraging communication even amongst foes, MSC Chair Christoph Heusgen said he did not want the event to be used as a platform for Russian propaganda. Heusgen asserts that “he draws the line at war criminals,” despite concerns from some attendees that the conference is turning into a one-sided club preaching to the choir.
Though the 59th MSC was a significant event given the fragile and volatile state of peace around the world, with the Ukraine-Russia war at the heart of it, the exclusion of Russia and Iran paints rather a contradictory picture. If such a high-level conference was meant to address the ongoing global crisis and bring all world leaders on a single platform, the exclusion of contending key actors from the dialogue may not bring desired, substantial results.
