Maj.Gen. Ijaz Awan
Indo-China military confrontation is not a spontaneous event as the Indians would like the world to believe. It is in response to the developing military infrastructure by the latter to militarize a disputed territory with far greater consequences than a simple border spat.
The Ladakh frontier – the de facto border between the the two is a Line of Actual Contact (LAC).
Ladakh is also part of the disputed region of Kashmir in accordance with the UN Resolution 47-122, pending solution through a plebiscite. For maintaining status quo and non-violations, an international observer group UNMOGIP (United Nations Military Observer Group India Pakistan) was set up to monitor the Line of Control (LoC) between Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK). The matter is also validated by the Simla Agreement of 1972 in which it is recognised that Kashmir is a disputed region awaiting settlement/ resolution.
However, India continually attempted to unilaterally set aside the UN Resolutions on the matter of Kashmir and kept taking steps to strengthen its own position vis a vis other stakeholders. Encourage d by the fencing of LoC , occupation of Siachin glacier and silence of the UN on these developments, India made a next move on the disputed region of Kashmir
Recent development and confrontation in eastern Ladakh along LAC between China and India appear to be a result of the Indian abrogation of Article 370 and 35A in August 2019, accompanied by declaration of Kashmir and Ladakh as India’s Union Territories , by implication changing the status of LAC to international border which China recognised
This was in violation of the UN Resolutions, antagonizing both Pakistan and China. India, in a bid to militarize the area, had already been taking steps in relevance to securing Ladahk. They included:Revival of Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) and Fukche airbases in early 2008. DBO is only 8 miles from the Karakoram Pass. India raised the base to brigade level and connected it to their internal road network – an ominous development.
2. Construction of a 255-km Darbuk-Shyok-DBO Road in October last year to sustain the DBO Brigade.
Beijing never objected to these developments openly. But the change in the status of Kashmir and Ladakh last year probably served as the trigger for China to reinforce the territories under its control.
These developments significantly changed the status quo indicating the Indian will to permanently annex Ladakh. China viewed these developments with suspicion and responded by landing 5,000 troops in the Galwan Valley, on the Western Ridges, dominating the Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Road, the only Line of Communication to the DB Brigade.
Secondly, Indian civilian and military leaders belligerently claimed to take over Gilgit Baltistan (GB) and Azad Kashmir as announced on May 3, 2020 “whenever the parliament so demanded,” in the words of the army chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane.
Both Pakistan and China viewed the Indian objection on the construction of the Bhasha Dam, a China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project awarded to a Chinese company, as an alarming development.
India’s claim that the CPEC route passes through disputed territory of Kashmir alarmed both Pakistan and China on the possible course of actions New Delhi may take to support its view.
Thirdly, there is also widespread fear that after the proposed US’ withdrawal from Afghanistan, it is likely to lose desired influence in the region and Washington therefore , wishes to prompt India into a lead role in the region to challenge the Chinese growing influence.
Fourth, the quadrilateral agreement between, US, Australia, Japan and India is threatening Chinese trade through the South China Sea. The Malacca Strait is also dominated by the Indo-US nexus. Hence Beijing would like to secure its flanks wherever and as much as possible.
CPEC and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is therefore a facility likely to allow Beijing to circumvent these challenges thus diverting $5 trillion worth of trade through Gwadar to China via East-West connectivity.
It is therefore clear that developments in Ladakh region by the Indians have the potential to impact CPEC, denying China a strategic advantage. Silence of the US and the West on the developments in Indian Occupied Kashmir is thus a reward for India, which is equally tempting for the latter to punch above its weight.
India’s military is vintage and no match to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). It, therefore, appears to have made a serious miscalculation by disregarding the UN Security Council on Kashmir i.e. unilateral actions of abrogating Article 370 and continual violations of the UN Resolutions. By implication, it is now a trilateral issue between the three nuclear powers whereby India has wilfully sidelined the UN.
These developments have brought Pakistan and China militarily closer than ever before , CPEC and BRI shall be guarded as a strategic interest and would also mean that the Karakoram Pass would always be guarded as Chinese strategic sensitivity
Major Gen.(r) Ijaz Hussain Awan is a security/defence analyst, and a former ambassador of Pakistan.
