The last of the founding fathers of the terrorist organization Al Qaeda has been killed. Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri was targeted in a US drone strike in Kabul. He had been living in an upscale locality of the Afghan capital.
There are multiple implications of this for Pakistan and Afghanistan. Firstly, this is a deadly blow to the credibility of the Afghan Taliban. They’ve been promising the entire world that the regime would not allow any individual or organization to use Afghan soil for any terrorist activity against a neighboring country. Now the Afghan spokesperson, Zabiullah Mujahid declared and denounced the American drone strike as a violation of international law and as a violation of the Doha peace agreements.
However, in the Doha peace agreement, the Taliban themselves had pledged not to allow the use of Afghan soil for subversive or terrorist activities against any other country. And now the fact that Zawahiri had been living in the heart of Kabul after the return of the Taliban to the government in August last year itself raises many questions. Now the elimination of Al-Zawahiri is also a blow to the credibility of Surajudin Hakani, the leader of the Hakani network and who happens to be the Home Minister as well. And he’s also still wanted by the United States on a number of charges. He’s been telling every visitor that they would not tolerate any terrorist activity on their soil.
It was believed, as the US intelligence sources have claimed, that he had been brought to Kabul probably by the Hakani network and had been under the protection of the Hakani network. This was the most sought-after group inside Afghanistan and the Americans had been raising hues and cries about the Hakani network’s activities. Moreover, a number of attacks in Kabul during the Karzai and Ashraf Ghani regime were attributed to the Hakani network itself. Hence, after this attack, even close friends and supporters of the Afghan Taliban regime, like Russia, and China would look at the claims made by the Taliban with a pinch of salt because counter-terrorism is one big subject that unites all the countries in supporting the Afghan Taliban, they considered the Afghan Taliban, as a bulwark against Al Qaeda, against Daish against the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and against The East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM).
Now that Zawahiri was found inside Kabul, the Taliban, particularly the Hakanis, would find it difficult to justify their claims and, to prove to the outsiders that they mean business. Thirdly, this also raises questions about the Hakani network and other Taliban when they are dealing with and, mediating between Pakistan and TTP. One wonders what role is it actually playing when trying to mediate between Pakistan and the TTP? Just because the TTP has been very closely linked to the Hakani network. They have been under their shell, under protection for quite some time.
Most of the TTP fighters and central quadra moved inside Afghanistan after August the 15th, when the Taliban returned to power. Now, should Pakistan really believe in what the Taliban are saying as far as the TTP is concerned? Because TTP is still sticking to its original demands, it’s not relenting. There have been several rounds of stocks. But there is no clarity as to whether those stocks will ever succeed.
Just because of the Taliban, the Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan, feel they have a safe haven in Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban feel they cannot crack down on anybody that has been involved in the jihad against the foreign troops together with them. Whether it was during the Russian occupation of Afghanistan or during the presence of the American and NATO forces in Afghanistan.
So, there’s reluctance, big reluctance among the Taliban Afghanistan to go after the outfits like the TTP or Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan or ETIM. That creates a big concern among all the countries which have been very actively supporting the Taliban. They have been indirectly trying to help out and advocating for the recognition of the Taliban regime. At least a working relationship, they believe will help mitigate Afghan people’s problems. But the killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri, I think, has created a new complication, a complication that could also come in the way of the release, the promised release of $3.5 billion of Afghanistan’s funds, which are frozen, sanctioned in the United States. There have been talks about the release of those funds, but it’s not clear whether those funds will not be released after the elimination of Ayman al-Zawahiri in the heart of Kabul.
