Yasmeen Aftab Ali
The United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres had recently warned that “the world will lose an invaluable brake on nuclear war” with the death of the INF (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces) Treaty.
He was right!
The threat from countries possessing ballistic missiles has increased. The “death of INF” brings into question, the fate of other arms control treaties like “new-START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty)”; signed by Obama and Medvedev in 2010 and placed a limit on Russian and U.S nuclear forces. The treaty, like the INF, will bite the dust in 2021 unless mutually renewed by both nations.
Though there is no explicit statement by Trump, experts in Washington claim that the U.S wants to include China in the treaty without which it may probably not support new-START beyond 2021.
However, compared to the INF, START has a limited scope over arms control. With the death of the INF Treaty, nuclear weapons can now be used by nations for purposes other than strategic deterrence.
A matter of concern in this step taken by the US is that with the dissolution of the INF, there is no new structure to replace it and contain arms proliferation. And with no structure in place and many nations possessing dangerous weapons, it will be a “free fall” towards chaotic world order.
That chaotic disorder has emerged sooner rather than later in the form of Kashmir!
India recently revoked Article 370, which awarded special status to the majority-Muslim state of Jammu and Kashmir. It also gave the valley the right to have separate laws. It also forbade outsiders from buying property in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. Article 35A, a clause to be read with Article 370, is also likely to bite the dust.
This abrogation will take away the exclusive citizen rights from the Kashmiri people and allow an influx of Indians and takeover of properties legally and/or by coercion. This will be a violation of Article 370 as well as create an imbalance in the proportion of ‘citizens’, making the original inhabitants a minority in their home state.
An eminent juristoffered the following opinion on this autocratic step taken by the BJP government in India:
It is an abrogation. It is not an amendment to the Constitution (as that requires two-thirds majority present and voting and is also the subject of cases before Indian Supreme Court), but just a Presidential Order, that only required recommendation by Jammu & Kashmir Constituent Assembly. But J&K does not have a Constituent Assembly, since June 2018 (some argue since 1957)! The President proclaimed that J&K Governor “shall exercise the powers of the elected government and will express the will of the state legislature in making recommendations to the President in relation to Article 370”. However what happened to the Constituent Assembly? Why was it not there when it was most needed? Here’s why. Sending of 10,000 military personnel & getting tourists out of J&K may be seen as the first signs of what was to come. But the work actually started much earlier. BJP came to power in J&K for the first time ever in Jan’15 (in coalition with Mahbooba Mufti’s PDP). Suddenly, there was a massive increase in violence. In the 12 years before the BJP, there had only been 2 major terrorist attacks in IOK. In the 3.5 years of BJP’s coalition government, there were 8 major incidents, killing 70. The BJP used this curious increase in attacks since it itself came into power to try and crush the Kashmiri independence movement. Intentional provocative acts were committed. Burhan Wani, Sabzar Ahmad Bhat, Afaqullah Bhat & others were killed, and when an 8-yr-old girl was raped & murdered, the BJP publicly supported the accused. CM Mahbooba Mufti was forced into an awkward position and she eventually resigned in June 2018. And that was what was needed by the BJP.
What followed was firstly a Governor Rule and then, in December 2018, the President’s Rule. When Mufti realized the plan and tried to join hands with the opposition leader Omar Abdullah, the BJP Governor did not allow the Assembly to meet to form a new Constituent government. The Election Commission too did not allow state elections to be held along with the Lok Sabha election, citing ‘security’ concerns (and yet Lok Sabha elections were safely held!). Instead, President Rule was extended in Feb’19 and recently again in June’19. The lack of Constituent Assembly allowed the Presidential Order. This is also likely to be the main ground for a legal challenge to the Proclamation.
In the meanwhile, the Supreme Court of India, when moved, has determined to hear the case ‘upon its turn’ and not to give the case preference in the hearing. On the other hand, while chairing a meeting of the National Security Committee, Pakistani PM Khan has decided upon ‘downgrading of diplomatic relations and suspension of bilateral trade with India, review of bilateral arrangements, United Nations, including the Security Council to be approached.’
In his recent tweet, PM Imran Khan has said that:
“The curfew, crackdown & impending genocide of Kashmiris in IOK is unfolding exactly acc to RSS ideology inspired by Nazi ideology. Attempt is to change demography of Kashmir through ethnic cleansing. Question is: Will the world watch & appease as they did Hitler at Munich?”
The move by India bifurcating the state into a severely diminished state of Jammu and Kashmir, reducing the rights of citizens as well as creating a separate division for Ladhak has angered China as well. Beijing said that Ladakh area involved territory in an area that stands disputed in China-India border region. Aksai Chin administered by China is part of Ladhak.
On the other hand, Indian PM Modi has upped the ante by abrogating Article 370 and spiking tensions to new heights between India and Pakistan; the two nuclear neighbours. Admittedly, both the countries possess a small pile of nuclear arsenal, but they are more powerful than those used against Japan in 1945. It is also unlikely either will ask for U.S intervention to resolve the issue. The one power that can bring sense in this madness is the third regional power: China.
Though Foreign Affairs Minister Qureshi has issued a statement that Pakistan will not resort to military action in a row with nuclear arch-rival India over Kashmir, the situation is still volatile, fluid and inflammable. Hence, both India and Pakistan might ultimately need China’s meditation on the matter.
In March 2019, former Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov,delivering a talk at the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference in Washington DC, had observed: “We are moving in a minefield, and we don’t know from where the explosion will come.”
However, such an “explosion”, if the situation is not contained, might ultimately come from South Asia.
