Arooj Naveed
With President of the United States, Joe Biden suggesting for a ‘rival plan to Belt and Road’ initiative (BRI) one cannot but clearly interpret the changing dimension of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project; from having laid down its foundation on economic prosperity and progress, it is likely to become a ground for ideological confrontation between rising China and threatened U.S. Will the 21st century be repeating the history of the Cold War era, with a twist in nature of confrontation? And what does it mean for Pakistan? To understand these foremost questions, we first need to outline the conflict of interest between the two ideological powers.
While the U.S. still constitutes tremendous assets for maintaining predomination through military primacy, various alliances, internationally lead western institutions and an unchallenged soft power, over the years BRI could jeopardize Washington’s foundational hegemony post WWII. Few analysts view the project for an unsettled extension of rising power, China. In a few Asian countries with costs of the projects on the rise, opposition seems to have grown stronger and U.S. shares similar concerns of the BRI becoming a Trojan horse for a region to be lead by China. During President Trump’s ruling, Washington raised alarm bells in this regard, however, the government was not able to offer any economic vision. President Joe Biden has announced a rival plan for BRI. As tensions among Asian powers and the nations of the West continue to grow, Biden has proposed a go- ahead rival drive from democratic countries. As of March 28th, 2021, London’s Boris Johnson has ‘readout’ onto his call, with Biden not having mentioned on the proposal, yet. Nevertheless, the statement does imply a future of ideological economic proxy confrontation between democratic U.S. and communist China.
We are witnessing the return of the Cold War era, in which military alliance will be substituted for economic alliance and this time on the land of Pakistan. During 2020, the senior official of State Department looking into the South Asian affairs, Alice Wells after having delivered a critique on CPEC provoked a hit back from the embassy of China in Islamabad. What worries the U.S. is the fact that China continues to build a ‘ global-spanning block of nations’ who would be interested in buying Chinese goods alone and sway towards a model presented by the Chinese authorities. It is within this background that attempts have been made by Ms Wells for dissuading Pakistan from the project of CPEC.
For Pakistan, a situation of economic confrontation between the two divide would mean making a choice; an explicit clear decision with regards to it’s economic foreign policy option. As Dr. Muhammad Ali in his recent article, Cold War rivals, Pakistan and Russia seek endure partnership states,“ Americans have launched a containment war against China and even if we don’t want to admit it, we are caught in the middle of this ‘containment war’ and so it is absolutely essential that together with both Russia and China we should forge a new partnership in the region.” For quite some time developing states including the Asian state Pakistan awaited for infrastructural investments by the West. Having lived through Taliban insurgency which costed Pakistan over hundred million dollars, the country now awaits ‘ peace, prosperity and stability.’ Turning a blind eye for providing funds which would bolster projects of public welfare the gap was quickly filled by Beijing which pumped in billion of dollars into states of Latin America, Asia and Africa. While making a comparison between the two, Pakistan needs not to forget the following fact, policy of conditionality vs policy of generosity. Of the 99 cents for every loan (aid) received from the US every year, each of it has been returned back through charges placed for technical consultancy in aid programs, transfer pricing, charges on shipments accompanied by a long list of conditionalities. On the contrary, China has remained more approachable and generous when it comes to it’s dealing with Pakistan assisting the country in constructing facilities for the infrastructure of industries, heavy mechanical and electronic complex, factory of steel, nuclear power plants, fabrication of jet fighters and JF Thunder.
Henceforth, in context of CPEC it remains crucial for Pakistan that it does not keep up with its ‘ dithering actions’ as talked about by Imtiaz Gul in his article, Pakistan China Relations Not As Usual Anymore. Elaborating further, the writer goes on to detail how the current deal of strategic cooperation between Iran and China is a warning by Beijing of not wanting to rely on Pakistan burdened by it’s own inaction, belated system of governance, contradicted policies and ‘ delusional romance’ of its geostrategic position. Furthermore, current interaction between Pakistan and the Chinese stakeholders concludes that ‘the state of relations is not good.’ It looks as if there is an unease in their relations on many factors inclusive of a mismatch in expectations by China and on ground fluctuating actions on the side of Pakistan.
Announcement of a rival plan against BRI is the beginning of development of an economic proxy confrontation between the U.S. and China. And in this Pakistan is ‘ in a containment war.’ Having said so, how the economic proxy confrontation is going to play out between the two ideological giants is yet unclear. Nevertheless, in the wake of latest development Pakistan needs to keep up with Chinese expectations on CPEC. Given that it remains a mutually benefited project, for Pakistan it remains a viable geostrategic and economic option. And in this there should be no doubts !
