Yasmeen Aftab Ali
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres had warned that, “the world will lose an invaluable brake on nuclear war” with the death of the INF Treaty. He was right! The threat from ballistic missiles has increased. The death of INF brings to question the fate of other arms control treaties like START. Signed by Obama and Medvedev in 2010 it places a limit on Russian and U.S nuclear forces. The treaty stands to bite the dust in 2021 unless mutually renewed by both nations.
Though there is no explicit statement by Trump, the experts in Washington claim that U.S wants to include China in the treaty without which U.S may probably not support START beyond 2021.
However, compared to the INF, START has a limited scope over arms control. With the death of INF Treaty, nuclear weapons can be used by nations for purposes other than strategic deterrence.
A matter of concern in this step taken by the US is that with the dissolution of the INF, there is no new structure created to take its place to combat arms proliferation. And with no structure in place and with many nations possessing dangerous weapons, it will be a free fall towards a chaotic world order.
That chaotic disorder has emerged sooner than later in the face of Kashmir. India removed Article 370 awarding special status to the majority-Muslim state of Jammu and Kashmir, which gave it the right to have separate laws. It forbid outsiders from buying property in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. Article 35A a clause to be read with Article 370 is also likely to bite the dust. ‘According to the provisions in the Article 35A, the citizens are defined “permanent” as someone who was a state subject on May 14, 1954, or who has been a resident of the state for 10 years and has lawfully acquired immovable property. The article also outlaws from owning property or having any gainful employment in the region. This greatly hinders private sector investments and ‘development’ in the region.’ (Eurasian Times)
This abrogation will take away the exclusive citizen rights to the citizens and allow influx of Indians and takeover of properties legally and/or by coercion violating Article 370 as well as unbalance the proportion of ‘citizens’ making the original inhabitants a minority in their home state.
An eminent jurist offered the following opinion on this autocratic step taken by BJP, “It is an abrogation. Not an amendment to the Constitution (as that requires 2/3rd majority present and voting and is also the subject of cases before Indian Supreme Court).But just a Presidential Order, that only required recommendation by Jammu & Kashmir CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY. But J&K doesn’t have a Constituent Assembly. Since June 2018 (some argue since 1957)! The President proclaimed that J&K Governor “shall exercise the powers of the elected government and will express the will of the state legislature in making recommendations to the President in relation to Article 370”. However what happened to the Constituent Assembly? Why was it not there when it was most needed? Here’s why. Sending of 10k force & getting tourists out of J&K may be seen as the first signs of what was to come. But the work actually started much earlier. BJP came to power in J&K for the first time ever in Jan’15 (in coalition with Mahbooba Mufti’s PDP). Suddenly, there was a massive increase in violence. In the 12 years before BJP, there had only been 2 major terrorist attacks in IOK with 15 dead. In the 3.5 years of BJP’s coalition government, there were 8 major incidents, killing 70 (including the likes of Urri, Anantnag & Pathankot). BJP used this curious increase in attacks since it itself came into power to try & crush Kashmiri independence movement. Intentional provocative acts were committed. Burhan Wani, Sabzar Ahmad Bhat, Afaqullah Bhat & others were killed, and when an 8-yr-old girl was raped & murdered, BJP publicly supported the accused. CM Mahbooba Mufti was forced into an awkward position and she eventually resigned in June 2018. And that was what was needed by BJP.”
What followed was firstly a Governor Rule and in December 2018, the President’s Rule. When Mufti realized the plan & tried to join hands with the opposition leader Umar Abdullah, the BJP Governor didn’t allow the Assembly to meet to form a new Constituent govt. The Election Commission too didn’t allow state elections to be held along with the Lok Sabha election, citing ‘security’ concerns (and yet Lok Sabha elections were safely held!). Instead, the President Rule was extended in Feb’19 and recently again in Jun’19. The lack of Constituent Assembly allowed the Presidential Order. This is also likely to be the main ground for a legal challenge to the Proclamation.
In the meanwhile Supreme Court of India when moved, has determined to hear the case ‘upon its turn’ and not to give the case preference in hearing. On the other hand while chairing a meeting of the National Security Committee, PM Khan has decided upon ‘downgrading of diplomatic relations & Suspension of bilateral trade with India, review of bilateral arrangements, United Nations, including the Security Council to be approached.’
The move by India bifurcating the state into a severely diminished state of Jammu and Kashmir, reducing the rights of citizens as well as creating a separate division for Ladhak has angered China as well. Beijing stated Ladakh area involves territory in area that stands disputed in China-India border region. Aksai Chin administered by China is part of Ladhak area.
Modi has upped the ante by abrogating Article 370 spiking tensions to new heights between India and Pakistan-the two nuclear neighbors. Admittedly, both combined own a small pile of nuclear arsenals, but they are more powerful than those used against Japan in 1945. It is also unlikely either will ask for U.S intervention to resolve the issue. India because it denied asking for Trump’s intervention as stated by the U.S President and Pakistan because news has made rounds of U.S being in the know of Modi’s step. The one power that can bring sense in this madness if the third regional power: China.
In March 2019, former Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov delivering a talk at the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference in Washington DC had observed, “We are moving in a minefield, and we don’t know from where the explosion will come.”
The writer is a lawyer, academic and political analyst. She has authored a book titled ‘A Comparative Analysis of Media & Media Laws in Pakistan.’ Her mail ID is yasmeenali62@gmail.com and tweets at @yasmeen_9
