Aamna Khan
Even though it never went into obscurity ever, the Afghan peace process comes under the limelight once again but this time, it became the focus of attention as it is likely to be entered in the final stage of the peace process.
On April 14th, US president Joe Biden announced the unconditional complete withdrawal of all remaining US troops (about 2500) from Afghanistan by September 11 this year which happens to be the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington that resulted in the US-led military invasion. This announcement, though four months later than an actual deadline agreed in the Doha peace deal and notwithstanding a stalemate in peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government, is expected to be a definitive end to America’s longest war.
After Biden’s announcement, security experts seem skeptical about peace in Afghanistan. Given the track record of the Taliban in engaging in violence, the upsurge of ISIS in Afghanistan and, the deadlock between insurgents and the government, analysts are predicting the outbreak of civil war in the country. By Assuming the complexity of Afghan conflict through the lens of Regional Security interdependence, turmoil in Afghanistan poses serious security intimidations to its region and have grave implications specifically for the neighbouring states. If escalated, may jeopardize global peace too.
China being the regional leader and a neighbour of Afghanistan will have a huge responsibility on its shoulder in the post-US troops’ withdrawal phase. China has two major concerns; firstly, it is worried about the spillover effect the turbulence in Afghanistan may have on its already fragile Xinjiang province and the cross border insurgency that will disrupt China’s counterterrorism measures. To secure itself from Afghan-based terrorist groups, China has already agreed to provide its support for the Taliban to be included in the Afghan Government, in exchange the Taliban must prevent Uyghur secessionist groups from China’s Xinjiang region from crossing the border and shouldn’t be granted with any safe havens in Afghanistan. The second major apprehension of China is any threat to the progress of its most cherished Belt and Road Initiative. Stable and secure Afghanistan is indispensable for the success of China’s BRI and its flagship CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor). China is well cognizant that without stability and peace in Afghanistan, China can’t fetch the anticipated outcomes.
The recent decision of US troops withdrawal left china with limited options to save itself as well as the region to avoid a forthcoming debacle. Considering the US experience, it’s very less likely that China would go for hard power or would send its military troops to Afghanistan; the land known as the graveyard of empires. China has always been a flag bearer of exercising soft power and chanting win-win cooperation. Apparently, It will extend its economic and humanitarian assistance and will try to utilize multi-track diplomacy to win over Afghans. From the start, China was ardent to support the Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process. It has always supported the idea of political settlement through dialogue and negotiations therefore, it’s improbable that it will go for any military solution. Furthermore, China might lead a regional dialogue by bringing Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran and Russian all together on a table to find a regional solution particularly, Pakistan can assist China as well as can play a constructive role in paving the way between China and the Taliban.
There are plentiful chances that the Taliban and China can go along well because the Chinese governance system is more hierarchical and autocratic as compared to the democratic system that west follows and much align with the system the Taliban seemingly don’t oppose much. Additionally, China has a better image among Afghans compared to westerns and popular for its developmental projects among less developed states. Furthermore, China may keep strict surveillance on Afghanistan through Pakistan and via its military base in Tajikistan near the strategic Wakhan Corridor – the strip connecting Afghanistan to China.
Per the Chinese standard practice, China will encourage peace talks in a private way as long as possible through multi-track diplomacy and soft power but it is explicit categorically that China will never let its internal security or BRI fell prey to the mayhem in Afghanistan. If the security situation becomes out of hand and signals a substantial threat to China or its interests, China will not leave any stone unturned to protect itself. China would not prefer but can send its peacekeeping mission under the terms of the Charter of the United Nations as a last resort to safeguard its interests in the region if necessitated.
A freelance columnist and a PhD student majoring in International Relations at Jilin University, China
