Laraib Nisar
The rapid increase in China’s soft influence in the region, and It’s rise over the past two decades has reshaped the landscape of global politics, and has created new friends and foes in the global picture. With the recent shift in global political, diplomatic, and security scenario, all eyes are fixed on the posture that China is going to adopt, as it is a significant rising power which has the ability to influence the future.
Afghanistan, the country where US fought the longest war in its history, has been quite unfortunate when it comes to internal stability and peace. Due to its key geo-strategic location at the crossroads of Central and South Asia, the country has been exploited by different powers for their own interests. Afghanistan was the home-ground for the Anglo-Afghan Wars, Mujahedeen against the Soviet Union post the Soviet invasion, the US War on Terror and a number of civil wars, mostly when the foreign forces withdrew.
Now that the US has announced to end its 20 years long war, and is in the middle of troops’ withdrawal, Afghanistan is at an ever larger risk of a civil war. The Taliban are reportedly advancing across Afghanistan’s rural areas, bringing more territories under their control. Afghan government forces are finding it increasingly hard to deter Islamist militants without NATO’s vital air power. According to reports from the Russian Foreign Ministry, the insurgents now control two-thirds of the Afghan-Tajik border and they have also been able to take hold of key economic centers on the border with Iran. But according to sources on ground, the security and stability situation is not as bad as it is being reported, and in most of the cases, conspiracy theories are floating. The Taliban hasn’t been able to reach or capture any of the major cities including provincial capitals. Moreover, the upcoming visit of Zalmay Khalilzad, U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, has sprung hopes that a ceasefire will be signed by mid-August
With the on-going ups and downs in Afghanistan, the whole world is fixated on the universal question i.e. what will be the future of Afghanistan after US leaves? Is any state going to fill the void left by US? If so, who? Are Russia and China going to compete for influence? In the light of analysts’ reports and narratives, the most potential candidate to fill this void is China, due to its rising clout in the region.
With the recent increase in violence, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry said “the recent abrupt U.S. announcement of complete withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan has led to a succession of explosive attacks throughout the country, worsening the security situation and threatening peace and stability as well as people’s life and safety,” which means China is concerned about peace and stability in Afghanistan.
For years, China has been expanding its economic clout in the region as well as the world through its “Belt and Road” initiatives across the globe, providing affordable infrastructural and trade development. Beijing has already said that it wants to expand the program to Afghanistan. And surprisingly, Taliban are ready to work and cooperate with China, as they view it as a friendly country. “We welcome them (China). If they have investments of course we ensure their safety. Their safety is very important for us,” Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen said in a recent interview with the South China Morning Post newspaper, adding that “China is a friendly country that we welcome for reconstruction and developing Afghanistan.” To mitigate China’s concerns regarding the East Turkmenistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) using Afghan soil for launching attacks against China, the Taliban spokesperson said, “People from other countries who want to use Afghanistan as a site (to launch attacks) against other countries, we have made a commitment that we will not allow them in whether it’s an individual or entity against any country including China,” implying that the Taliban do not support ETIM and will not allow them to use the Afghan territory against China or any other country.
However, the western established narrative that China’s BRI project and CPEC particularly, is the new East India Company, trying to hijack Pakistan and other developing countries can play a role in shaping the future of Sino-Afghan relations. One of the problems with developing countries is that they always buy the western established narratives, instead of developing their own evidence-based narratives.
The most significant feature of the Chinese regional development model is that China believes in inter-dependence. All the projects under BRI work on the principle that the target country has to put in some resources, even if minimal. Moreover, the notion that China provides infrastructure in the short-term, in exchange for long-term debt repayment plans that leave countries more dependent on China’s authoritarian government, is completely false. Let’s take the example of Chinese investment in Pakistan. Most of the projects under CPEC aren’t loan based, almost all of the investment in Special Economic Zones is Foreign Direct Investment. Gwadar Sea Port and almost all of the hydro-electric projects are built upon Build-Operate-Transfer model, and some of the coal-based projects are rental. Though some of the projects like the motorways, ML1 are loan based, but they are soft, concessional loans.
As far as the machinery is concerned, only essential machines are brought from China e.g., tunnel boring machines. Otherwise, only local machinery is being used. Pakistan has signed an agreement with China to train Pakistani labor force, so Pakistan can buy the machinery and technologies from China.
Regarding the employment of labor force, China and Pakistan have agreed upon utilizing 83 percent of Pakistani labor and 13 percent Chinese labor force. Wherever investment is made, agreements about labor participation are signed beforehand. Hence, the Chinese model of interdependency makes it a more reliable option for Afghanistan, because unlike other major powers, China doesn’t exploit developing and under developing countries.
The author Laraib Nisar is a Defense and Strategic Studies’ graduate, working as a Project Coordinator at Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) Islamabad.
