During the first quarter of 2024, Pakistan witnessed 432 violence-linked fatalities and 370 injuries among civilians, security personnel, and outlaws, resulting from as many as 245 incidents of terror attacks and counter-terror operations. This includes 281 fatalities among civilians and security forces personnel. The northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and the southwestern Balochistan provinces – both bordering Afghanistan, accounted for over 92% of all fatalities and 86% of attacks (including incidents of terrorism and security forces operations) during this period. Individually, the former suffered 51% and the latter 41% of all fatalities in Q1, 2024. The data indicates that the remaining regions were relatively peaceful, suffering less than 8% of all fatalities.
These were the key findings of the Q1 2024 Security Report issued by the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS).
In addition to the casualties of terrorism and counter-terrorism, there were 64 incidents of sabotage in the country targeting properties of the government, politicians, private properties, and security properties.
In Q1 2024, Balochistan recorded a staggering 96% surge in violence, with the number of fatalities jumping to 178 from 91 in Q4 2023. The Sindh province also saw a nearly 47% rise in violence though the number of fatalities was very low. However, the regions of KP, Punjab, and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) recorded encouraging decreases in violence by 24%, 85%, and 65% respectively.
Despite a notable decrease in violence observed in GB in the period under review, the GB Home Minister issued a terror threat alert on March 31, 2024, regarding the possibility of attacks by the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The alert came in response to a recent suicide attack on a convoy of Chinese engineers in the Shangla district of KP who were working on Dasu Dam project, killing 5 Chinese nationals and a local driver. It’s worth noting that last year, GB had suffered the highest number of fatalities in a decade, with 17 lives lost.
In Q1 2024, civilians and security forces personnel suffered over 65% (281) of all fatalities in nearly 200 terror attacks, compared to outlaws suffering only 35% (151) in around 48 counter-terror operations.
The attacks on security officials and civilians outnumbered the security operations conducted against the outlaws, by almost fourfold. Moreover, civilians bore the heaviest brunt of violence suffering 154 fatalities (36%) which is more than any other category of victims, and thus emerging as primary victims of violence in this period.
Compared to last quarter (Q4 2023), the fatalities of civilians and security officials combined surged by 17%, whereas the fatalities of outlaws, militants and insurgents combined, decreased by almost 15% in the first quarter of 2024. Individually, there was a significant increase in the number of insurgents’ fatalities, by 215%, a decrease of approximately 33% in militants’ fatalities.
Interestingly, militant organizations claimed responsibility for less than 20% of the total casualties attributed to terrorism in Q1 2024. Surprisingly, certain terrorist outfits such as Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan (TJP), Lashkar-e-Islami (LI), and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) which were highly active the previous year, have abstained from claiming any acts of terrorism this quarter. Only the TTP and Daish (Islamic State) have taken responsibility for some attacks, while a new militant group named Jabhat Ansar al-Mahdi Khorasan (JAMK), affiliated with the Gul Bahadur group, emerged in Q1 2024.
Although the TTP claimed responsibility for only three terror attacks in Pakistan in this quarter, resulting in four fatalities, an unclaimed terror incident occurred in North Waziristan on March 16, 2024, led to the tragic loss of seven security officials, including a Lieutenant Colonel and a Captain.
The insurgent groups, BLA, BLF, BRAS, and SRA, claimed responsibility for 18 attacks (three times more than the claims of the militant groups) this quarter causing 42 fatalities and 40 injuries. The prime targets of the insurgent groups were the security and government installations including Gwadar Port Complex, Mach Jail, Turbat Naval Base.
In Q1 2024, eight incidents of sectarian violence were reported, impacting all religious communities, including Muslims and non-Muslims alike. Among the non-Muslim communities, Ahmadis endured the highest casualties (9), while three fatalities occurred among Shia Muslims due to violence. Additionally, a Sunni Muslim was also targeted in an act of violence.
