This is not your father’s Taliban
Haider Mehdi
I say this with cautious optimism, despite the Armageddon like analysis and dire predictions emanating from many quarters.
Here’s my view.
The current crop of Taliban from their leaders to rank and file, have so far demonstrated amazing flexibility and diplomacy as they raced on their relatively peaceful blitzkrieg like takeover of Afghanistan.
Reports of the way they’re dealing with their former enemies, both Pashtun and non Pashtun, including Shia Hazaras speaks, at least for now, a different approach.
The latter is particularly surprising.
The Taliban’s display of amity, coordination with the Shia Hazaras, former arch enemies, divided by sectarian differences and a history of blood laden conflict is indicative of how the Taliban want to create a more inclusive environment, and not just a short term tactical ploy to take over areas, without a fight.
Based on this, I don’t think they’ll resort to the the 1994 harsh, cruel, exlusivist Taliban world of irrational rigid dogma driven governance.
So how did this happen?
One factor that hugely influenced this is that once the vast majority of the families of Taliban leadership had to leave Pakistan, under US pressure, they were provided safe havens in Iran by the Iranians.
And that is how Iran came to acquire significant influence over the Taliban leadership and now were able to play a major role in arranging a rapprochement between the Taliban and the Shias as well as advising the latter not to fight the former.
The ease with which Shia majority provinces fell to the Taliban, Bamyan in Hazarajat, for example, indicates the success of this strategy.
Interestingly as the Taliban flag flies from a nearby fortress, there is also the Labbaik Ya Hussain Shia Flag fluttering in the background. Pictures of Joint Taliban and Shia judges on recent weeks are all over the place.
The phrase “Shia Taliban” is becoming more and more common.
Stranger still is the Taliban undertaking to the Shias of Ghazni city to provide security to them in the month of Moharram as they mourn the Shahadat of the Prophet’s family.
This is clearly a different Taliban leadership who thinks very differently from the Mullah Umar days.
Mullah Baradar, Sirajuddin Haqqani, potential senior leaders in a new Afghan government are consumate diplomats who realize that only inclusiveness will overcome the Afghan’s natural penchant for war lordism.
Hence, it seems unlikely that we will see the re-emergence of the previous Taliban scenario.
The elephants in the room are the highly rabid groups like the TTP and splinter groups emanating from Daesh and AL Qaeda, uncompromising in their religious world view towards those who do notbsubscribe to their belief system.
Given the above, the current Taliban may find themselves in conflict with these groups which possibly may have ongoing negative impact of terrorist activities in Pakistan, but nowwhere near what we witnessed decades ago.
Cautiously optimistic.
But one thing is clear.
These are not your father’s Taliban and the USA, EU etc must wake up to this reality and give Afghanistan a fighting chance to rebuild itself.
Stay away. USA!
Haider Mehdi is a Geo political commentator / blogger on National and International affairs. Formerly a media anchor, corporate leader, management consultant, start up entrepreneur and military officer, he tweets @SHaiderRMehdi and blogs on shrmehdi.com
