M. Ziauddin
The year 2019 was more than a typical Pakistani ‘never-a-dull-moment.’ By February a full-fledged war had looked almost imminent after Indian war planes flew into Pakistani territory and bombed Balakot, claiming it had destroyed Jaishe Mohammad terror training camps there. Pakistan denied the Indian claims and insisted only a few trees got damaged as a result of the Indian incursion.
Pakistan retaliated next day, and bombed a number of targets inside the Indian territory in broad daylight.
Fortunately, this first frontal clash in almost 50 years caused no human casualties nor were any civilian or military installations damaged on either side.
But a dogfight over Pakistani skies did end in the downing of one Indian aircraft and the capture of its pilot whom the government sent home immediately. War passions eventually subsided, as the world rushed in to hold the hands of the two nuclear armed countries.
Kashmir
Within four months of returning to power for the second time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi provoked Pakistan by arbitrarily scrapping Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution on August 5, ending thereby the special status of Kashmir under its control. Modi followed up with a complete lock down of all kinds of communication in the valley – making it the longest black-out thus far, with almost a million Indian soldiers guarding the valleys length and breadth.
Suhasini Haider, a noted Indian journalist, says India knows that it has stepped on a land-mine and does not dare take the step off, fearing an uncontrollable backlash from angry Kashmiris. And by the 7th month in office Modi and colleagues brought in the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) which is supposed to fast-track citizenship claims by non-Muslim immigrants from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh.
As the mass protests against the CAA spread horizontally to various parts of India, the outrage by the rights’ defenders had, by late December, already left over two dozen protestors dead.
Line of Control
The Line of Control (LoC) remained hot throughout the year, with a number of civilians the Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJ&K) side falling prey to relentless shelling by the Indian Border Security Forces (BSF).
This was happening to the accompaniment of threatening speeches against Pakistan by Indian cabinet ministers. Some even vowed to attack AJ&K. Meanwhile, the Indian media had kept up its war mongering against Pakistan with exceptional zeal.
PM Khan at UN
In an unusual departure from diplomatic norms, Prime Minister Imran Khan devoted his September 27 address to the UN General Assembly to Kashmir, Islamophobia and challenges of climate change. He sounded as if he was speaking from heart. And even before going to New York to attend the UN session he had made a policy decision not to be provoked into another military clash with India, advising his countrymen to face the situation with patience and equanimity while effective political and diplomatic measures were being strategised by experts.
Afghanistan
Throughout the year, seemingly positive developments dominated the discourse on Afghanistan, as the US led by special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad launched a fresh offensive to bring to end the 18-year long conflict. However, by September, when the peace accord appeared only few steps away, President Trump in a surprise move walked away from the peace talks on the seemingly flimsy pretext that one US soldier was killed in the latest Taliban attack. In recent weeks, however, Zalmay Khalilzad, the US negotiator has resumed the talks in Doha.
As the US and Afghan Taliban opened their negotiations sometime in late 2018, the importance of Pakistan in getting the talks put on the right tracks dawned on the US. President Trump took a sudden U-turn and instead of asking it to ‘do more’, extended his hand of friendship to Pakistan and invited Prime Minister Imran Khan to the White House. Even before their summit President Trump out of the blue offered help in mediation between India and Pakistan. He claimed PM Modi had asked him to play role of the go-between. PM Khan had another fruitful meeting with President Trump when he was in the US to attend the UN session.
The US wants to leave Afghanistan with the guarantees from Afghan Taliban halt violence and cooperate with Kabul. The Afghan Taliban have so far refused to talk to the Kabul government, calling it a puppet of the US. Despite nudging by the US to exert more pressure on Taliban, Pakistan maintained it had only a limited influence over militia.
Economy
It was perhaps the new found US love for Pakistan that Islamabad could finally sign the much needed agreement with the IMF for a three-year, $6b Extended Fund Facility in July. This had looked almost impossible after US Secretary of State, Pompeo had asked the Fund not to sign a programme unless Pakistan disclosed all facts about the $ 62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). He specifically told the Fund to ensure that its resources would not be used to repay the CPEC related Chinese loans. (Such demands overlooked the fact that all loan repayments will begin in 2022).
As usual all round inflation shot up to double digit in no time which was followed up immediately by a hike in interest rates which directly hit investment plans that the country needed to kick start the economy. Meanwhile, by drastically curbing imports the government tried to cut down on the burgeoning current account deficit and succeeded to an extent as at the same time, exports too had started showing signs of improvement. However, fiscal deficit is expected to remain as high as 7 per cent because of massive decline in revenue from import duties for obvious reasons. Also, the large scale manufacturing sector is still showing negative growth further affecting revenue income. The growth predicted for the outgoing year is hovering between 3.5 to 3 percent which perhaps is likely to drastically impact the poor. Poverty alleviation schemes under the Ehsas programme may assuage those hardest hit by crippling inflation.
Political Turmoil
Throughout the year domestic politics had remained polarized and acrimonious. The Parliament looked like redundant entity; unable to face the numerically strong opposition, the government has resorted to governing from outside through executive edicts. And with most of the PMLN and PPP leaders facing corruption charges, the opposition appears in no mood to cooperate. The resultant political paralysis is not only affecting the economy in general but also adversely undermining governance as a whole.
The opposition had tried to de-seat the Senate Chairman but failed miserably despite having the numbers. Maulana Fazlur Rehman of JUIF did give the government some shudders by bringing in a horde of his followers to Islamabad for a sit-in. It unnerved the stakeholders for a few days, yet receded quickly.
The extension issue of Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa which went to parliament via the Supreme Court in late November appears like a highly controversial New Year gift from the outgoing year to both the government and the opposition which poses as a very serious challenge to the political sagacity of both of them.
The issue of COAS’s extension brought massive embarrassment both to the government as well as the military establishment. The detailed judgement on former President Musharraf on December 17 also raised alarm and triggered a tug of war between the judiciary and the establishment, which reacted furiously.
The writer is the former Resident Editor, Dawn Islamabad, former Editor, The News, former Executive Editor, The Express Tribune & former Assistant Secretary General, PFUJ.
