The ever-delicate Pak-Afghan relationship hangs by a thread, with unresolved tensions sparking fears of a deeper regional crisis.
The growing tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan are now at a critical point, with the potential for even further destabilisation. Pakistan’s threat to deport over a million Afghan refugees has brought to the forefront the economic and humanitarian strains on Afghanistan’s government, which is already reeling from a lack of international support.
Historically, both nations have wielded trade, transit, refugees, and border disputes as political leverage. However, the current impasse is more severe than previous conflicts. Beyond the refugee crisis, Pakistan has persistently voiced concerns over cross-border terrorism emanating from Afghan territory. Islamabad has presented substantial evidence implicating Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP), and the Hafez Gul Bahadur group in attacks on Pakistani soil.
The numbers bear witness to the deteriorating security situation in Pakistan. According to the Global Terrorism Index 2025, Pakistan experienced a 45% increase in terrorism-related fatalities, with deaths rising from 748 in 2023 to 1,081 in 2024. The TTP was responsible for 558 deaths in 2024, accounting for approximately 52% of the total terrorism-related fatalities in the country that year. ISKP, meanwhile, has expanded its regional footprint, executing increasingly lethal attacks. These groups, entrenched in Afghan territory, continue to launch cross-border assaults, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Yet, the Taliban’s unwillingness to rein them in has only deepened Pakistan’s frustration.
The Afghan Taliban’s reluctance is rooted in both ideological and strategic considerations. Many of these militant factions were integral to the Taliban’s prolonged insurgency against U.S.-led NATO forces. Confronting them now risks alienating former allies and driving disillusioned fighters into the ranks of ISKP, a group that has emerged as a formidable regional adversary. The Taliban’s internal challenges, including consolidating power in a country torn by decades of war, further complicate any decisive action against these militant groups. Afghanistan’s already limited military capacity and economic constraints render it highly unlikely that the Taliban can address these threats effectively, especially considering the failure of a two-decade-long NATO campaign to do so.
This impasse between Islamabad and Kabul is not just a security dilemma or a humanitarian crisis—it is a profound diplomatic failure. Communication between the two governments is rather sparse, and mutual distrust is at an all-time high. Pakistan sees Afghanistan as a haven for terrorist groups, while the Taliban, distracted by internal power struggles, remain unwilling to alienate their militant allies. The absence of dialogue has left both countries in a dangerous stalemate, unable to engage in the kind of strategic cooperation needed to resolve the mounting issues.
Without urgent diplomatic intervention, the crisis risks further destabilizing an already volatile region. Pragmatic engagement is essential; Pakistan and Afghanistan must forge a path toward security cooperation while ensuring that humanitarian issues, such as refugee and migrant rights, are not exploited as political bargaining chips. A return to structured dialogue, potentially mediated by regional and international stakeholders, could provide a pathway to de-escalation. If the current trajectory persists, the consequences will be grave, not just for Pakistan and Afghanistan but for the broader South Asian region. Without communication and trust, the future of the region remains uncertain, trapped in a cycle of blame and missed opportunities for peace.
