Busting The Myth of Climate Change : A Tale of Systemic Failures & Corruption

This report questions the much-trumpeted narrative that climate change is responsible for the massive floods and damages that Pakistan has seen since 2010 floods. While excessive rains or drought is beyond human control, partial prevention, solid mitigation and preservation of floodplains is possible, argues Engineer Arshad Abbasi in this report.

Executive Summary

This report provides an incisive scrutiny of Pakistan’s flood management strategies and systemic failures (both due to incompetence and corrupt practices) and highlights the country’s vulnerability to devastating floods, as evidenced by the 2010 and 2022 disasters.

Both calamities entailed cumulative estimated losses worth over $73 billion. In the aftermath of the floods in 2010 and 2022, the Government of Pakistan framed climate change as the sole culprit behind the staggering damages to the economy. After the catastrophic failure to manage the floods of 2010, international consultancy firms of repute were commissioned to develop a National Flood Protection Plan, including recommendations to enhance the capacity of the Federal Flood Commission (FFC). A distinguished panel comprising Dr. Fernando J. Gonzalez, former Regional Director of the World Bank; Dr. Thinus Basson, a professor and consultant with leading U.S. universities; and Dr. Bert Schultz, a Dutch expert renowned for his work on irrigation and drainage, conducted extensive studies and finalized their recommendations in August 2019.

However, it seems that no government heeded these recommendations by international consultants on flood management, and the tendency is often to deflect from systemic failures by attributing the disaster entirely to climate change—glossing over the underlying factors that aggravated losses. No surprise that the federal finance minister, Mohammad Aurangzeb, admitted before the Senate Climate Change Committee that “the country has lost its credibility” (February 20, 2025).

This begs a basic question: Can we relate the devastating impact of floods to climate change only? Do the damages accrue only from uncontrollable floods, or do systemic failures prevent partial mitigation and minimization of the floods?

The report, therefore, explores this basic question and reviews Flood Management Strategies led by the Federal Flood Commission (FFC), the Commission’s performance, and the flaws in management.

We hope this report serves as a crucial eye-opening resource for the Government of Pakistan and global institutions such as the World Bank, ADB, IMF, and UN agencies. It provides guidance on the effective utilization of climate change financing, prioritizing urgent areas to mitigate future flood devastation. By addressing these issues strategically, Pakistan can secure the maximum value from these resources and lay the foundation for a more resilient future.

Why We Call it “The Myth of Climate Change in Pakistan: A Sorrow Tale of Systemic Failures?”

The title actually denotes the heartbreaking reality of Pakistan’s flood management failures and an over-emphasis on advocacy instead of real mitigation . This description not only evokes a sense of tragedy and despair but also highlights the catastrophic impact of human error and malfeasance as much in flood management as in several other sectors of life. A technical analysis reveals  that the damages off floods do not necessarily lie in the vagaries of nature, but in the failures of its institutions and leaders i.e.financial corruption, governance failures and institutional incompetence.

FFC – The Epitome of Systemic Failures

The Federal Flood Commission (FFC), the focal body to deal with the issue, has failed to develop effective flood management strategies and designs for flood mitigation structures according to site requirements. The FFC’s approach has been focused on constructing flood protection embankments, bunds, and spurs, which are often vulnerable and ineffective. The commission has ignored the need for standardized infrastructure in flood-prone areas and has failed to address issues like encroachment of floodplains and obstruction of drainage pathways.

Despite a tenure of nearly five decades, bolstered by support from the World Bank, UNDP, and ADB, this entity has failed to devise efficacious strategies for mitigating the ravages of flooding. Following the floods in 2010, Pakistan had requested the Netherlands to provide technical assistance for flood and water management. The Dutch institute, in 2016, laid bare the FFC’s fundamental flaw: its inability to design and implement standardized flood embankments, a rudimentary yet indispensable component of flood protection.

The calamitous consequences of this dereliction are writ large. The devastating floods of 2022 constituted a damning exposé of the FFC’s culpable negligence, wherein the lamentable state of flood embankments—bereft of adequate maintenance, monitoring, and repair—was cited as a primary cause of the disaster. The considerable annual outlays allocated for maintenance serve only to underscore the FFC’s egregious failure to discharge its mandate.

The same Dutch institute also pointed out, eight years before the flood in 2022, that some barrages and bridges have low flood-passing capacities. For this reason, these structures create constrictions, which cause upstream affluxes that damage flood protection and river-training works.

It is Corruption and Incompetence, Not Climate Change

• The FFC’s top management has been accused of corruption and incompetence, with billions of rupees squandered on ineffective and insufficient flood mitigation structures, primarily due to the appropriation of critical funds by political and bureaucratic officials.
• The World Bank and IDA-financed $286 million Sukkur Barrage restoration project, for example, has been plagued by delays and corruption. Despite its approval in 2015, the project is still incomplete, with the replacement of 18 gates expected to be finished by May 2025—a delay of nearly five years. The project’s slow progress has exacerbated flood congestion in the Indus, particularly around Manchar Lake.
• The delay in this corruption-marred Sukkur Barrage restoration project had disastrous consequences during the 2022 floods; a staggering 15 out of 42 gates were non-operational, causing a blockage that exacerbated flood congestion in the Indus. This, in turn, reduced the capacity to drain the area around Manchar Lake, leading to catastrophic damage.
• A recent complaint against the Project Director by the Chinese firm executing this project (whereby the official asked for an apartment in Dubai’s Burj Khalifa as a personal reward) also provided only a tiny glimpse into the way the system works and how precious public funds are appropriated within the public sector.
• Pakistan’s reputation lies in tatters, courtesy of a bribery demand by a Project Director that has shaken the trust of international investors and partners. This stark reality is a painful reminder of the country’s entrenched corruption, which has not only damaged its global standing but also hindered its progress.
• The dire situation is also reflected in a request that the chairman of the FFC made to USAID in the aftermath of the devastating 2022 floods; the official asked the American embassy to provide training for their officials at the HQ of the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). This request also laid bare the incompetence and the short-sighted selfish conduct of key officials.
• The ADB-funded $50 million project to remove corrosion from the Kotri Barrage gates offers another glaring example of systemic failures.
• This paper also debunks the often-touted myth that floods and the damages thereof are only caused by climate change. Instead of taking responsibility for their own corruption and mismanagement, officials and politicians shift the blame to climate change, disregarding their own acute shortcomings and their propensity to fill their own pockets rather than spending the funds where they are truly needed.
• The slogan climate change is, therefore, a mere excuse to solicit more funds instead of working hard and honestly to improve existing mechanisms.
• The Federal Flood Commission (FFC), despite multi-million-dollar support from the World Bank, UNDP, and ADB, has miserably failed to devise efficacious strategies for mitigating the ravages of flooding. Even technical assistance and advice from a Dutch institute in 2016 could not help improve its archaic approaches. The Dutch institute identified fundamental flaws, particularly the FFC’s inability to design and implement standardized flood embankments, but the 2022 floods made it clear that no lessons had been learned at all.
• The devastating floods of 2022 constituted a damning indictment of the FFC’s culpable negligence, wherein the lamentable state of flood embankments—bereft of adequate maintenance, monitoring, and repair—was cited as a primary cause of the disaster. The considerable annual outlays allocated for maintenance serve only to underscore the FFC’s egregious failure to discharge its mandate.
• The same Dutch institute had also pointed out that some barrages and bridges have low flood-passing capacities. For this reason, these structures create constrictions, which cause upstream affluxes that damage flood protection and river-training works.
• The catastrophic breach of 10 dams in Balochistan during the 2022 floods is a heart-wrenching tale of corruption, negligence, and devastation. Despite the presence of the Dams Safety Council, established in 1987 to ensure the safety and integrity of Pakistan’s dams, the tragedy unfolded due to the use of poor-quality construction materials. The government’s attempt to shift the blame to contractors was met with a damning response from the contractor association, revealing that a staggering 50% of the dam’s construction cost lined the pockets of corrupt engineers, bureaucrats, and ministers. This appalling breach of trust has not only drained billions of dollars but has also exacerbated the suffering of the people of Balochistan, leaving them feeling betrayed, angry, and disappointed.

Capacity Gaps

Besides corrupt practices and the absence of a long-term vision, capacity gaps represent a significant challenge—an issue that has been the focus of global donors. However, officials and politicians often view “capacity building” as a means for foreign tours. No surprise, therefore, that despite generous funding from international organizations like the World Bank, UNDP, JICA, and USAID, the performance of officials at the Federal Flood Commission (FFC) on the ground has been dismal, to say the least.

Justice Mansoor Ali Shah, then a judge of the Lahore High Court and currently a Supreme Court justice, also addressed similar issues and proposed a way forward in a report, A Rude Awakening, which he authored in the aftermath of the 2010 floods. The report, based on a judicial inquiry tribunal, examined major embankment breaches, criticized the unpreparedness of flood management authorities, and attributed failures to the Ministry of Irrigation and Power. Despite its detailed recommendations, the report remained unpublished for years, highlighting systemic neglect in Pakistan’s flood management.

This report is a crucial document that highlights the lessons learned from the devastating 2010 floods, which significantly impacted Pakistan’s agriculture sector. The report emphasizes the need for a proactive approach to flood management rather than just reacting to disasters after they occur. It also underscores the importance of having a well-coordinated strategy to combat floods, which is currently lacking in Pakistan.

The main findings of this report are listed below:

1. Reassess the design limits and criteria for major river structures and flood management strategies.
2. Implement breaching sections at barrages and bridges with limited flood-passing capacities.
3. Explore alternative solutions to address the limitations of existing structures.
4. Prioritize forest preservation and sustainable land use practices in watersheds.
5. Develop a holistic approach to flood management that incorporates non-structural measures, such as implementing and demarcating floodplain zoning and flood risk mapping. Pakistan’s reluctance to establish flood zoning regulations has turned its flood-prone areas into death traps. Despite repeated warnings and pleas from ministry officials, the Federal Flood Commission (FFC) and provincial governments have refused to demarcate high-risk zones, resulting in devastating consequences.
6. The Federal Flood Commission (FFC) has proven to be ineffective in managing flood risks in Pakistan. To address this, the FFC must either be merged with the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) or dissolved altogether. WAPDA, with its team of experienced engineers, has a proven track record of developing and maintaining complex water structures. Their expertise extends to addressing critical issues such as soil salinity and waterlogging, which are essential for rehabilitating affected lands, particularly in Sindh. By leveraging WAPDA’s capabilities, Pakistan can ensure more effective management of its water resources and mitigate the impact of floods. This strategic merger or dissolution would enable the country to tap into WAPDA’s hands-on experience and technical expertise, ultimately leading to better flood management outcomes.
7. In 2008, I pioneered the development of a real-time monitoring system during my tenure as Director of the Planning Commission. This innovative system was designed to ensure the quality and transparency of all development projects.
8. The system’s core objectives were to:
   • Enhance Accountability: Foster a culture of accountability among project implementers.
   • Improve Transparency: Provide real-time updates on project progress, enabling stakeholders to track performance.
   • Ensure Quality: Monitor project quality, identifying potential issues before they escalate.

In the context of flood management and development projects, implementing this real-time monitoring system is crucial. Even with substantial funding, including trillion-dollar investments, the desired outcomes will remain elusive without a robust monitoring mechanism in place.

Historical Overview

Floods have been part of a natural cycle that can never be fully controlled since ancient times. Flooding in the Indus Basin is a historical phenomenon, with archaeological evidence indicating that the ancient city of Mohenjo-daro was repeatedly destroyed and rebuilt due to floods from the Indus River (Possehl, n.d.). This highlights the long-standing vulnerability of the region to flooding.

Attributing recent flooding events solely to climate change is scientifically inaccurate. While the term “climate change” has been in use since the 1850s, with increasing frequency since the 1980s, it is essential to acknowledge that climate variability has been a persistent feature throughout human civilization.

A more nuanced understanding recognizes that flooding in the Indus Basin is influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including geomorphological, hydrological, and anthropogenic processes. Climate change may be a contributing factor, but it is not the sole cause of flooding in the region. A comprehensive approach to flood risk management must consider these multiple factors and their interactions.

Historically, Pakistan has faced devastating floods since independence, with major events in 1950, 1955, 1973, 1976, 1978, 1988, 1992, 1994, 1995, 2010, and 2022. These floods have inflicted immense economic losses, particularly to agriculture, property, and public infrastructure. According to the Federal Flood Commission (FFC), over 12,300 lives have been lost, and cumulative financial damages exceed $38 billion.

The 2022 floods in Pakistan were a calamity of unprecedented proportions, originating in the arid hill territories of western Pakistan. The floods accumulated in the mountainous regions, ultimately inundating the plains and leaving a trail of devastation in their wake. Balochistan Province was particularly hard hit, with the floods exposing the weaknesses of the region’s infrastructure.

In modern history, the 1976 flood was the most severe in terms of area affected and river flow. In response, the FFC was established in 1977 to manage floods at a national level. Despite receiving billions of rupees and foreign funding from institutions like the ADB and World Bank for flood mitigation structures—embankments, spurs, gabions, and diversion channels—the recurring devastation raises questions about the effectiveness of these measures and the role of governance in averting such tragedies.

At the beginning of 2010, numerous National Flood Protection Plans had been completed, and according to official records, an extensive network of flood mitigation structures had been built across all rivers in the Indus Basin.

These structures included embankments, bunds, spurs, gabions, protection walls, and diversion channels. However, when the floods hit, it became glaringly apparent that these structural measures had failed to mitigate the disaster. Instead of acknowledging this failure, the FFC conveniently attributed the devastation to climate change.

This misguided attribution has become a persistent myth, allowing the FFC to deflect responsibility for the ineffectiveness of its flood mitigation strategies. We must dispel this myth and acknowledge the true causes of flood disasters to develop more effective solutions and prevent future catastrophes.

FFC’s Inaction on Critical Recommendations

After the 2010 flood, a comprehensive Development of the National Flood Protection Plan was prepared by internationally renowned consultancy firms. This plan, which included recommendations for enhancing the capacity of the Federal Flood Commission (FFC), was the result of an in-depth study conducted by a panel of global experts comprising Dr. Fernando J. Gonzalez, former regional director of the World Bank; Dr. Thinus Basson, a professor and consultant with leading U.S. universities; and Dr. Bert Schultz, a Dutch consultant globally recognized for his expertise in irrigation and drainage. Their findings, finalized in August 2019, highlighted critical gaps and actionable recommendations. Unfortunately, these recommendations were largely ignored by the FFC and Provincial Irrigation Departments, contributing to the catastrophic $30 billion loss during the flood of 2022.

One of the panel’s critical observations was the lack of uniform design standards for embankments and barrages. These structures, essential for flood mitigation, were being constructed using outdated, “cut-and-paste” designs over the last four decades, without considering site-specific factors such as gradient, water flow, and velocity. The consultants diplomatically outlined key areas requiring urgent transformation to modernize the FFC and address these systemic weaknesses. However, despite the polite yet urgent tone of their recommendations, finalized in August 2019—three years before the 2022 floods—the FFC failed to act. Had some of these measures been implemented, a significant portion of the $30 billion in damages might have been averted.

Key Gaps Identified

Institutional Gaps

• Lack of coordination between federal and provincial departments during flood events.
• Absence of a technical data-sharing mechanism across relevant agencies.
• Shortage of specialized expertise in flood management.
• Undefined roles and responsibilities in addressing floodplain encroachments.

Managerial Gaps

• Failure to conduct regular inspections and monitoring of flood protection structures.
• Lack of technical expertise in the operation of critical water control structures.
• Inadequate systems for providing real-time information and instructions at water control structures.

Technical Gaps

• Limited availability of real-time hydrological data.
• Insufficient density of hydro-meteorological gauges compared to international standards.
• Inadequate spatial and temporal forecasting of monsoon events.
• Limited reaction time to manage flash floods in streams.
• Absence of uniform design standards for embankments and barrages.
• Lack of sufficient storage infrastructure to attenuate flood peaks.
• Poor maintenance, monitoring, and repair of existing flood embankments.

Flood 2022 and the Performance of the FFC

The calamitous events of December 2022, wherein five districts in Sindh and one in Balochistan were extensively inundated, serve as a poignant illustration of the formidable challenge posed by floodwater disposal during such cataclysmic events. A Dutch-documented white paper solemnly attests that the Flood Protection Plan-IV, a comprehensive strategy devised to mitigate the ravages of flooding, was callously disregarded, with its provisions left unimplemented.

As presciently predicted, the bridges constructed across the Indus in Sindh, particularly those erected since 1972, have grievously constricted the river’s floodplains, imperiling the capacity to evacuate flood peaks. The lamentable consequence of this shortsightedness is the accretion of land, which has further confined the river’s course.

The Dadu-Moro Bridge and the Larkana-Khairpur Bridge are egregious examples of this malfeasance, compressing the floodplains at their locations from an expansive 15 kilometers to a mere one kilometer. The paramount issue, however, lies not in the constriction of the floodplains but in the egregious encroachment upon the active flood channel itself. It is not the specter of climate change that wrought havoc in Sindh but rather the perfidious obstruction of floodwaters by these ill-conceived bridges.

In 2016, a Dutch consultant warned the Federal Flood Commission (FFC) that the construction of Jamsher Loop Bund and Faridabad Bund had compromised the conveyance capacity of the Indus River downstream of the Sukkur Barrage. These bunds, built to reclaim agricultural land, effectively encroached upon the river, creating obstructions that threatened to exacerbate flooding.

Tragically, the FFC disregarded the consultant’s advice, failing to remove these structures. The consequences were catastrophic: the inundation of a vast area below the Sukkur Barrage, wreaking havoc on communities and infrastructure. This devastating outcome underscores the importance of heeding expert warnings and prioritizing sustainable river management practices to prevent such calamities.

Tragic Tale of Flood Mitigation Failures in Pakistan

The World Bank and IDA-financed $286 million Sukkur Barrage restoration project, part of the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (SBIP), is a stark reminder of Pakistan’s systemic failures in flood management. Approved in 2015, the project was initially scheduled for completion by December 2020 but was delayed due to bureaucratic hurdles.

The project’s objectives included structural repairs, gate replacements, and modernization of the barrage’s electromechanical works. However, as of now, the project is still incomplete, with the replacement of 18 gates expected to be finished by May 2025. The non-operational status of 10 out of 64 gates of the Sukkur Barrage exacerbated flood congestion in the Indus, particularly around Manchar Lake.

A complaint lodged by the Chinese firm executing the project, China Road & Bridge Corporation/Hubei Shuizong Water Resources and Hydropower Construction Co. Ltd. (CRBC-HBSZ), with the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) Karachi on December 30, 2024, revealed a shocking bribery demand by the Project Director. The company was asked to provide at least 3,600 square feet of property in Burj Khalifa, Dubai, to release their payment.

This incident is a damning indictment of the corruption plaguing Pakistan’s flood management efforts. The Federal Flood Commission (FFC) and the Sindh Irrigation Department’s ineptitude have resulted in devastating consequences, including the catastrophic 2022 floods.

Another example of the gross mismanagement of flood mitigation funds is the ADB-financed $50 million project in 1998 to remove corrosion from the 43 main gates of Kotri Barrage. Despite the project’s objectives, 15 out of 42 gates were non-operational during the 2022 floods, contributing to the devastation in Sindh.

These two projects demonstrate the appalling state of flood mitigation in Pakistan. The constant blame-shifting to climate change is a convenient excuse for the systemic failures and corruption that have crippled the country’s flood management efforts.

The pioneering work of Svante Arrhenius, Guy Callendar, the UN, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has inadvertently provided a smokescreen for the corruption and incompetence plaguing Pakistan’s flood mitigation projects.

Major Reasons and Consequences

1 – Changing Monsoon System in South Asia

The shifting monsoon pattern, now leaning from northwest to southwest, raises critical environmental and planning concerns. The Himalayas, known for their role in intercepting summer monsoons from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, traditionally influence precipitation patterns in the region. However, the unexpected surge in rainfall across Sindh and Balochistan during August and September in recent years suggests a significant shift in the monsoon’s trajectory.

This unprecedented change, likely exacerbated by aggressive infrastructure developments along the Himalayas—from Arunachal Pradesh to Jammu and Kashmir—has disrupted the ecological balance. Over the past decade, border tensions between India and China have led to extensive construction of roads, bridges, cantonments, airfields, and tunnels along the 3,488-kilometer-long border of India with China, further straining the environment. Land-use maps of the Himalayas clearly illustrate this monsoon shift.

Did any Pakistani institution undertake a comprehensive review of recent studies that point to a significant shift in India’s monsoon rainfall pattern? These studies highlight increasing precipitation in the southwest and decreasing rainfall in the northwest, largely driven by severe anthropogenic environmental degradation in the Himalayas. Yet, Pakistan has continued to attribute the 2010 and 2022 floods solely to climate change without acknowledging these broader regional factors.

In 2022, Balochistan recorded 327 mm of rainfall against a 30-year average of 61 mm, Sindh registered 694 mm against 123 mm, and Punjab experienced 427 mm compared to 225 mm. These extraordinary rainfall events overwhelmed already inadequate infrastructure and led to devastating floods, inundating five districts in Sindh and one in Balochistan.

Compounding the crisis were poorly designed canal embankments, especially in Sindh, which sit higher in the basin, such as the Kacchi Plains in Balochistan. Embankments for canals like Kacchi, Pat Feeder, Hairdin Drain, and Kirther lacked proper cross-drainage facilities. Consequently, hill torrent runoff from Balochistan entered Sindh unchecked, flooding areas around Hamal Lake.

Over time, infrastructure like roads, railways, and drainage embankments—often built across floodwater routes without sufficient drainage—has distorted natural runoff patterns. Housing developments further disrupted drainage, leading to ponding or uncontrolled diversions during floods.

2 – Absence of Flood Zoning in the Indus River System

Unfortunately, the focus of the Federal Flood Commission (FFC) in Pakistan has been on constructing flood protection embankments, bunds, and spurs, which are more financially lucrative for the FFC and provincial irrigation departments. These structures are often vulnerable and may only exist on paper, with no actual audits conducted to assess their effectiveness.

In 2015, the Model Provincial Floodplain Management Act was drafted, but it remains ineffective. The lack of implementation of floodplain zoning and effective flood mitigation strategies has led to repeated disasters, highlighting the need for a more holistic approach to flood management.

3 – Encroachment in Floodwater Routes

Over the years, the entire natural drainage pattern across the basin has become distorted. Canal and drainage embankments, roads, and railways have been built across floodwater routes, often with no or insufficient cross-drainage. In addition, housing estates and private properties have been developed within natural drainage areas. This extensive alteration of runoff patterns has had significant consequences.

The precise effects of these encroachments remain largely unknown and unmapped. In some cases, the blockages may have helped retain floodwaters, mitigating their destructive impact. In many other cases, however, they have obstructed the natural passage of floodwater, leading to ponding or uncontrolled diversions of flood runoff.

Pakistan’s floodplains, situated along the country’s major rivers, have been exploited for cultivation and development. Despite the risks, permanent structures have been built on these floodplains, often due to political pressure. As a result, governments have been compelled to construct roads, bridges, and other infrastructure, leading to catastrophic damage to lives and property during floods.

To address this critical issue, a comprehensive project has been initiated to develop a draft ‘River Act.’ This landmark legislation aims to regulate existing and future land use through floodplain regulations, mitigating the devastating impacts of flooding. Effective legislation and the implementation of these regulations are crucial to preventing losses and ensuring a safer, more sustainable future for Pakistan’s communities.

In 2011, I witnessed the desecration of the Chenab River, where brazen structures had commandeered small braid bars. It is a heart-wrenching reality that the notorious Bandits of Katcha, ruthless gangs operating in the riverine areas of Sindh and Punjab, have usurped millions of acres of land in the Kacha region, spanning both banks and braid bars of the Indus River.

These marauding gangs refuse to relinquish their ill-gotten strongholds, stubbornly clinging to their houses and bunkers, which cruelly obstruct the floodwaters. Meanwhile, our policymakers engage in a cynical charade, hiding this stark reality of illicit settlements behind the convenient smokescreen of climate change.

4 – Dams as a Panacea for Flood Mitigation?

The construction and operation of dams in Pakistan, particularly in Balochistan, were touted as a panacea for the region’s economic woes, promising employment opportunities and a boost to local agriculture. However, the harsh reality is that these dams have become a recipe for disaster, exacerbating the suffering of the people of Balochistan.

The 2022 floods, which ravaged the province, exposed the shocking truth about the dams’ construction. Poor-quality materials, coupled with rampant corruption and negligence, led to the breach of 10 dams, leaving a trail of destruction in their wake.

The Dams Safety Council (DSC) was established in 1987 within the office of the Federal Flood Commission (FFC) to ensure the safety of dams in Pakistan. The DSC’s primary responsibilities include reviewing comprehensive plans for new dams, monitoring their implementation, and conducting annual and periodic inspections for effective repairs and efficient operation of existing dams. Given the critical nature of dam safety, it is alarming that FFC officials have not been diligently checking quality control during dam construction. The consequences of such negligence can be catastrophic, as evidenced by the breach of dams in Balochistan during the 2022 floods. In light of the DSC’s responsibilities and the importance of quality control, it is clear that FFC officials utterly failed to play a proactive role in ensuring the safety of dams in Balochistan. Their task includes working closely with provincial irrigation departments and international agencies to develop and implement robust dam safety protocols.

The FFC’s failure to ensure the integrity and safety of dams, along with the absence of rigorous monitoring and maintenance, has led to repeated destruction of infrastructure and loss of livelihoods.

The FFC’s lax monitoring and lack of accountability have raised serious questions about the commission’s effectiveness and commitment to safeguarding the lives and property of Pakistani citizens. It is imperative that the government takes immediate action to address these concerns, ensure accountability, and implement measures to prevent such catastrophic failures in the future.

In the aftermath of the disaster, the government sought to shift the blame to contractors, but a damning video released by the contractor association’s information secretary revealed the shocking truth. A staggering 50% of the dam’s construction costs had been siphoned off by engineers, bureaucrats, and ministers, leaving the dams vulnerable to failure.

The breach of the dams has not only caused billions of dollars in damage but has also eroded the trust of the people of Balochistan in the government’s ability to protect them. The absence of quality control and the criminal negligence of the Federal Flood Commission have added to the anger and disappointment of the people, who demand accountability for this avoidable tragedy.

4 – Bursting Dams in Balochistan: Is It Climate Change?

Unusually high rainfall and weak infrastructure have caused the repeated bursting of dams in Balochistan, resulting in unprecedented flooding and destruction. This is yet another indication of the Federal Flood Commission’s (FFC) gross negligence and lack of effective monitoring. While the unusually high rainfall was a significant contributing factor to the floods, it was not the sole cause of the devastation.

The weak infrastructure, particularly the dams in Balochistan, played a critical role in exacerbating the disaster. Designed to retain floodwater, the dams instead accelerated the catastrophe by accumulating water and then releasing it in a torrent.

Consequences of Negligence and Poor-Quality Work

• 25-30 dams destroyed – In the districts of Killa Saifullah, Killa Abdullah, Pishin, and Quetta, several dams were completed under the World Bank-financed 100 Small Dams Project, which also impacted the following sectors.
• Electricity network disrupted – The failure of the dams affected the electricity network, leaving communities without power.
• Telecommunication infrastructure damaged – The telecommunication infrastructure was also severely impacted, disrupting communication services.
• Roads and bridges destroyed – Roads and bridges were destroyed, cutting off access to affected areas.
• Schools and healthcare facilities damaged – School buildings and health facilities were damaged, depriving communities of essential services for extended periods.

Conclusion and Recommendations

• The poignant tale of Pakistan’s flood management woes is one of tragic ineptitude. The Federal Flood Commission’s (FFC) strategy of blaming climate change has proven to be a masterful deflection, allowing it to evade accountability for its catastrophic failures.
• Despite squandering billions of rupees on flood mitigation structures since 1978, the FFC has failed to protect the nation from the devastating consequences of flooding. The Ministry of Finance’s estimates of the 2022 floods paint a staggering picture: $14.9 billion in damages and $15.2 billion in economic losses, totaling $30 billion.
• And yet, in the face of this unfathomable tragedy, not a single inquiry, not a single explanation, has been demanded by the Government of Pakistan from the FFC. The silence is deafening, a haunting reminder of the institutional failures that have ravaged the nation.
• The top management of the FFC has, in effect, provided a damning case study for the seminal book Why Nations Fail by Nobel laureates Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson. Their ineptitude serves as a stark illustration of how institutional incompetence and lack of accountability can condemn a nation to perpetual failure.
• The narrative pitched by the FFC has been adopted by the Government of Pakistan, possibly to secure more funds from international donors. However, the question and challenge remain: who will design and execute a well-planned, effective flood management strategy?
• Rather than attributing the crisis solely to climate change, it is imperative to confront the critical flaws in the existing flood management approach, which lacks provisions for handling floods that exceed design limits. Given the shifting patterns of flooding and the evolving behavior of streams, there is an urgent need to reassess the design limits and criteria for major river structures, as well as those in rural and urban areas. This review is essential to ensure that flood management strategies are robust, adaptive, and capable of addressing the realities of today’s changing environment.
• Structural measures, as favored by the FFC, are often perceived as easy to implement, highly visible, and capable of delivering quick results. However, these measures can also serve as a well-designed mechanism to drain funds without addressing the root causes of flooding. To ensure accountability, real-time, continuous monitoring of these structures must be conducted in strict accordance with specifications, overseen centrally by WAPDA.
• On the other hand, non-structural measures, though less glamorous and resource-intensive, demand significant behavioral changes from all stakeholders. Given the prevailing mindset, implementing such measures is inherently challenging. Issues like the encroachment of floodplains, dumping of sewage into city drains, and obstruction of drainage pathways require not only robust policy frameworks but also unwavering determination in their enforcement. Without addressing these systemic issues, the effectiveness of flood management efforts will remain severely compromised.
• Certain barrages and bridges suffer from limited flood-passing capacities, leading to constrictions that result in upstream affluxes. These affluxes, in turn, inflict damage on flood protection and river-training infrastructure. Since barrages are inherently designed to handle floods of a specific return period, it is crucial to prioritize the implementation of breaching sections at these locations. Additionally, alternative solutions must be explored and developed to address the limitations of these structures and mitigate their adverse impacts on flood management systems.
• The recent floods in Pakistan have exposed the glaring inadequacies of the Federal Flood Commission (FFC). Despite billions of rupees spent on flood management, the FFC’s ineptitude has been laid bare. The Chairman’s request for technical assistance from the US Delegation and the US Army Corps of Engineers is a damning indictment of the FFC’s capabilities.
• It is shocking to note that the FFC’s team lacks hands-on experience in designing and executing flood management structures. Their expertise seems to be limited to managing funds, which raises serious questions about their priorities. The Lahore High Court’s inquiry report suggesting that the FFC be shelved and flood management tasks be handed over to WAPDA is a viable solution.
• Pakistan has experienced numerous devastating floods since 1947, resulting in economic losses and damages estimated at over $6 billion. The FFC’s inability to effectively manage floods has resulted in immense human suffering and economic losses. It is time for a radical overhaul of the country’s flood management strategy.
• As a staunch advocate for preserving forests, I have always emphasized their vital role in preventing floods. My efforts to save the ancient Patriata forest in 2005 were motivated by the understanding that forests act as natural buffers against flooding. Forests function as massive sponges, absorbing rainfall through their canopy and root systems, slowing down surface runoff, and allowing water to gradually seep into the ground. This natural process mitigates the risk of rapid flooding in nearby areas, essentially acting as a barrier against floodwaters.
• Regrettably, Pakistan’s alarming rate of deforestation, driven by population growth, wood demand, and weak land and forest governance, has exacerbated flood peaks. The Federal Flood Commission’s (FFC) negligence in addressing this critical issue is astounding. Reforestation, soil conservation, and improvement in land use in watersheds have never been a priority for the FFC. This oversight has had disastrous consequences, highlighting the urgent need for a holistic approach to flood management that incorporates forest preservation and sustainable land use practices.

The failure to address these gaps, despite the availability of expert guidance since 2010, reflects systemic negligence that compounded the impact of the 2022 floods. Had the recommendations provided by experts been even partially implemented, a significant portion of the damages could have been mitigated. The tragedy lies not just in the financial loss but in the lost opportunity to prevent suffering and destruction.

The haunting question remains: Why has the FFC, for decades, failed to implement expert recommendations? Where is the comprehensive Flood Management Plan it was supposed to devise and implement? How and why did it continue to approve localized flood sector schemes without assessing their necessity within the broader context of flood management? The report emphasized the critical need for regular technical and financial audits to ensure that all flood protection schemes and management plans remained under strict scrutiny.

Tragically, these recommendations were ignored, and the Chairman of the FFC, who held office from 2011 to 2022, wielded his immense influence to evade audits and accountability altogether. Shielded by his connections within the government and accountability institutions, he perpetuated a culture of impunity.

The true tragedy lies in the fact that vital institutions like the FFC have been held hostage by individuals driven by personal power and financial greed. Had the FFC fulfilled its mandate, the catastrophic Flood of 2022 might have been mitigated through well-designed flood management structures. Instead, the phrase “climate change” was weaponized as a scapegoat to deflect responsibility, a narrative later adopted by the Government of Pakistan to secure foreign funding. This cycle of negligence, unaccountability, and exploitation has left the nation vulnerable to recurring disasters, a stark reminder of the human cost of institutional failure.