China’s growing security demands in Pakistan could reshape the dynamics of their bilateral relationship. As tensions rise over recent attacks, can both nations find a compromise to safeguard their interests without crossing red lines?
China is pressuring Pakistan to allow Chinese security personnel to protect thousands of its citizens working on development projects in Pakistan following a recent car bomb attack near Karachi’s airport that killed two Chinese engineers. This attack, seen as a major security lapse, has intensified Chinese concerns, as it marks the latest in a series of assaults on Chinese nationals and interests in Pakistan, further straining security ties between the two countries.
According to five Pakistani officials with knowledge of the negotiations, Beijing has submitted a formal proposal requesting a joint security management system. The proposal includes a clause allowing each country to deploy security and military forces in the other’s territory to conduct joint counterterrorism operations if needed. While Pakistan agrees to closer security coordination, including Chinese officials observing security meetings, it has not agreed to allow Chinese personnel active roles in ground operations. Instead, Pakistani officials suggested that China could aid in enhancing Pakistan’s intelligence and surveillance capabilities as an alternative.
China’s foreign ministry has neither confirmed nor denied the existence of these talks but reaffirmed Beijing’s commitment to strengthening counterterrorism cooperation with Pakistan. Pakistan’s military and interior ministries have declined to comment, though a recent statement by the interior ministry acknowledged both countries’ intent to formulate a joint strategy to prevent similar incidents. The October bombing, which involved nearly 100 kilograms of explosives and went undetected for 40 minutes outside the secure perimeter of Karachi’s airport, has raised concerns about a possible insider breach. The attack, which occurred shortly before Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s scheduled visit to Pakistan, has heightened China’s longstanding demands for direct control over the security of its citizens in Pakistan.
Publicly, China has supported Pakistan’s security measures, though privately, it has expressed frustration. Chinese officials presented evidence at a recent meeting that Pakistan had failed to meet security standards agreed upon earlier in the year. At an event earlier this month, Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan Jiang Zaidong called the recurring attacks “unacceptable,” prompting a sharp response from Pakistan’s Foreign Office, which described the ambassador’s statements as a departure from typical diplomatic norms.
The escalating security demands from Beijing following recent attacks on Chinese nationals in Pakistan indicate a significant strain on the traditionally close Pakistan-China relationship. For China, these incidents represent an unacceptable risk to its multibillion-dollar investments in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project in President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This latest demand for a formal security role highlights Beijing’s frustration with Islamabad’s inability to prevent repeated attacks.
For Pakistan, agreeing to Chinese security personnel’s involvement could set a precarious precedent, implying that it is unable to protect critical allies and thus requires foreign intervention. This would likely be unpopular domestically, where anti-foreign sentiment is often heightened by local groups who already view CPEC projects as exploitative. Allowing Chinese forces to operate in Pakistan could inflame these sentiments, potentially leading to increased resistance from militant groups and public backlash, especially in regions like Balochistan. Furthermore, it could also strain Pakistan’s relationships with other countries, as some may perceive the move as excessive Chinese influence.
A feasible middle ground may lie in Pakistan focusing on enhancing its internal capabilities through Chinese assistance, such as advanced intelligence, technology transfers, and extensive training to secure CPEC projects more effectively. This approach could reinforce Pakistan’s sovereignty while meeting China’s security expectations and demonstrating its commitment to protecting Chinese nationals without compromising national control. In the long term, this strategy might serve both countries’ interests better, building Pakistan’s capacity and stabilizing CPEC’s operational environment through a more sustainable security infrastructure.
