To Counter China, Is US Moving Back to Afghanistan?

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Imtiaz Gul
Imtiaz Gul

Bit by bit, President Biden’s administration appears to be recovering from the shock and humiliation the United States suffered in Afghanistan that led to an abrupt final U.S. military exit from the country on August 31. After groveling in embarrassment, anger and shame for months, Biden is finally giving in to domestic political pressures, and perhaps also acting out of geo-political considerations.

After green-signalling the OIC Foreign Minister’s Conference, Washington now has cleared the way for considerable assistance under the humanitarian cover.

US leaving Afghanistan
US leaving Afghanistan

The US-proposed UNSC resolution passed unanimously on Wednesday to facilitating aid to Afghanistan states:
“This resolution provides an exemption from the U.N. Security Council assets freeze against listed members of the Taliban and associated entities solely for the provision of humanitarian assistance and other activities that support basic human needs in Afghanistan, which the council will review in one year.”

China and Russia had  vetoed  and blocked an earlier US resolution that sought to authorise case-by-case exemptions to sanctions.
At the same time, the U.S. Treasury Department said it was issuing more licenses to facilitate the flow of international aid to Afghanistan “as long as it did not reach individuals sanctioned by the U.S.”

The licenses will also allow Afghan diaspora to send funds via banking channels to their families in Afghanistan.

Top diplomats in Brussels, the European Union headquarter, also sighed relief. “Better than nothing, and a big step forward,” remarked an ambassador.

The US licensing would certainly enable banking channels to transfer EU funds ( One billion Euros) as well as those by individual EU members such as Germany and Netherlands to Afghanistan.

Major pressure on White House came earlier in the week through a letter by 46 mostly Democratic lawmakers who warned President Biden that “sanctions against Taliban officials now in charge of governmental functions are creating a chilling effect for financial institutions and aid organizations serving Afghanistan.”

The instant response from the White House spokesperson then was wrapped in the usual legal compulsions; our hands are tied regarding frozen funds but that the United States continues to support humanitarian efforts in Afghanistan.

This indicates the US has now come to terms with the August 31 shock and shame, described graphically by Robin Raphel, former U.S. diplomat.

“After 9/11, the U.S. came in anger to Afghanistan, seeking revenge in a country whose history and culture it did not understand that well. It then fell victim to mission creep, trying to create a Western model of democracy on an accelerated timetable at the point of a gun… this resulted in massive corruption, inequality and a fragile [Afghan] government with limited legitimacy living in a bubble in Kabul. “

The UN resolution also suggested that if Washington has the will it can turn things around in no time.

What do these two major development (OIC Conference and UN Resolution) indicate?

Is it the internal political pressure that prompted the Biden administration to move the UN Security Council for easing flow of aid to Afghanistan?

Or does the UN Resolution flow from the American Deep State’s resolve to collectively forestall China’s creeping influence on Afghanistan?

Should Pakistan also be relieved after the gradual relaxation by the US?

What looks imminently ominous for Islamabad is ever deeper engagement on Afghanistan between the Pakistani and the US military establishments.

The only high-level civilian contact since the Qureshi-Blinken meeting in September was the one between the Pakistani foreign minister and Deputy Secretary Wendy Sherman, on latter’s request after the Biden-hosted Democracy Summit.

Omens for Pakistan’s civilian democracy should be worrying. Afghanistan remains the reference for US-Pakistan relations. China constitutes the factor that may be coloring the selective American engagement with Islamabad.

As a whole, even if the China pressure is enforcing indirect American concessions to the Taliban regime, it should be a huge relief for every one, more so for nearly 23 million Afghans facing starvation. Indirectly, the flow of funds will help ease the financial pressures that the Taliban-led Kabul regime faces right now.