The threat of second wave of COVID 19 is real

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Faizah Gillani

Nations all over the world are trying to adjust to some sort of “normal” life with the threat of Covid-19 still hanging over their heads.  But while some countries have managed to resume their daily business more freely, others are still struggling, and some are bracing themselves as they enter the second wave of the COVID-19 deadly virus.

second wave of the COVID-19

Countries in Europe such as Spain and France have witnessed a fresh spike in the virus, and the UK is now going along the same lines as its European neighbors. New rules and restrictions were put into place in September to tackle the new surge of the pandemic.

Speaking in the House of Commons last month, Prime Minister Boris Johnson told MPs: “We always knew that while we might have driven the virus into retreat, the prospect of a second wave of the COVID-19 was real. I’m sorry to say that as in Spain and France and many other countries, we’ve reached a perilous turning point.”

Many parts of the country are already under local lockdown, with stricter restrictions in place for areas that have become hotspots for the virus. A rule of six came into effect on September 14, which prohibits social gatherings of more than six people. Apart from a set of limited exemptions, including work and education, any social gathering of more than six people is now against the law.

Boris Johnson seems desperate to resist a second lockdown, describing it as “the nuclear option.” But despite the Prime Ministers’ reluctance to do so, there are concerns that the second wave of the COVID-19 lockdown is inevitable. But for now, new measures have been imposed to achieve the maximum reduction in the R number, which measures how quickly the virus is spreading.

Under new restrictions, all pubs, bars, restaurants, and other hospitality venues in England will have to shut at 10 pm. Tables are not allowed more than six people and groups are not permitted to mix. Fines for breaking laws on gatherings and not wearing a face mask will increase to £200 for a first offense.

There could also be a fine of up to £10,000 for people in England from 28th September for failing to self- isolate if they test positive for the virus or are traced as a close contact. As of the 28th of September, only 15 people are able to attend a wedding and civil partnerships, in groups of six.

Funerals can still take place with up to 30 people. Office workers are now being told to work from home where possible. The Prime Minister has stressed that schools would remain open and has referred to this as a “national priority.”

But despite the new measures put in place to tackle the stark coronavirus rise, there is still a lot of debate over the handling of the situation, and whether the government has got things right. The communities secretary Robert Jenrick has said that new measures imposed on millions of people would have contributed to flattening the curve but those measures have not been affective.

Speaking to Sky News, Mr. Jenrick said: “We know and we understand that in some of the places where we’ve imposed local restrictions, we haven’t yet seen the impact that we would like to have seen, and we understand that’s extremely frustrating to people in those areas.”

Northern City leaders have already issued a warning over local lockdowns, labeling them as “counter-productive.” Leaders in Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle, and Leeds have all said that they will not support further “economic lockdowns.” They are pushing the government on additional powers to punish anyone that breaks the rules, for new restrictions to be developed by the police, council, and public health experts, and for a locally controlled test and trace system.

NHS

These leaders are not alone in their criticism. Professor John Edmunds, who is advising the government over the second wave of the Covid-19 response, has also expressed concern. Professor Edmunds has said that local measures have failed and called for more stringent measures countrywide.

There are now talks of a possible circuit-breaker lockdown, an alternative to a nationwide lockdown. The implications of a nationwide lockdown on the economy seem to be playing on the Prime Minister’s mind, which is why the government is seeking out other options. At this stage, the implementation of circuit-breaker measures similar to that in Scotland, appear to be an option the government is seriously considering.

If implemented, it could last for a fortnight with the possible closure or regulation of pubs, bars, restaurants, and leisure facilities, and households will not be able to mix. Under such new measures, the movement would be limited to all but essential travel. Essential workplaces would remain open as well as schools.

According to some experts, if this measure is introduced, its purpose would be to stem the recent surge in cases. Public health experts have already warned that the death toll could be much higher than the first spike, putting the government under pressure to act.

But faith within Johnson and his government’s ability to deal with the crisis seems to be withering away. Even the right-wing Tory friendly media have started to raise questions over Johnson’s leadership. Critics of the Prime Minister have called him out for tall claims and big promises but underperforming and underdelivering instead. This is evident in the failures with test and trace, which is barely functional.

The test and trace regime that Boris once referred to as “world-beating,” has proven to be nothing but shambolic. Many people have been unable to book a coronavirus test and some have been asked to travel hundreds of miles for an appointment, putting people under stress and anguish especially if young children are involved.

Despite such blatant failures, the government continues to deny that the test and trace system is failing. BBC’s Question Time presenter, Fiona Bruce, called out Conservative MP Nadhim Zahawi for giving inaccurate figures, in a program last month.

Mr. Zahawi told Question Time that the UK was doing “240,000 tests a day.” After being told that the government’s own figures show that there are 81,000 tests a day, Zahawi backtracked and said that he was referring to the capacity. Denial has been a regular feature of this government.

The government has failed to understand that new measures will only pause the spread of the second wave of COVID-19 virus for a while. Once restrictions are lifted and guidelines relaxed, the virus will start to spread again. The long-term solution is not in lockdowns and restrictions but in testing and tracing. The government must focus on fixing the system. Time is not on their side and experts are already signaling towards statistics that project a frightening outcome.

Once schools reopened and with people being encouraged back into offices, pubs, and restaurants, but with no functional track and trace or testing schemes, the spread of the virus was only a matter of time. Instead, the government, and Health Secretary Matt Hancock in particular, appear to be blaming the public for the spread of the virus.

Yes, people have a role to play as responsible citizens during these testing times. But the government cannot expect people to get on with life without a proper functioning testing and tracing system.

The fact that there have been such delays within the system has put England on the backfoot. The public cannot be blamed for this. The government is responsible for its failure. Johnson and his team must accept it and step up.

The government must also think about the NHS, which is already under immense pressure. NHS chief executive Sir Simon Stevens has referred to 2020 as “the most challenging year in its history” because of the pandemic. He also described the virus’s current trajectory as “disturbing.”

One of the main reasons for the lockdown in March was to protect the NHS from becoming overwhelmed. But as we approach the winter season, a time when hospitals tend to get busier, it is worrisome for the NHS.

Also, the seasonal flu combined with the second wave of the COVID-19 is a serious threat. This is going to be a very tough winter for NHS staff, who are already exhausted after being overstretched during these challenging times.

The government has a responsibility towards keeping citizens safe and protecting the NHS, whilst trying to keep things going as normal as possible. But the situation at present is quite disturbing, and indicators for upcoming days are not very promising either.

Matrix Media

The writer has studied History and Politics at Queen Mary, University of London. And Near and Middle East Studies at SOAS, University of London.