Zeeshan Haider
Abdullah Abdullah has arrived for the first visit to Pakistan since assuming the office of Afghanistan’s High Council for National Reconciliation (HCNR) as U.S.-led and Pakistan-backed efforts gear up to end long-running conflict in the war-weary country.
Abdullah’s visit comes days after he led the Afghan government team in the first ever talks with the Taliban in the Qatari capital, Doha, since the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan in the wake of al Qaeda attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001.
Pakistan played key role in persuading the Taliban to sit face-to-face with the U.S. officials to end the 19 year old war in their country which ultimately spurred intra-Afghan dialogue.
The ethnic Pashtun Taliban are generally regarded as pro-Pakistan while Abdullah embodies leadership of the Afghanistan’s non-Pashtun ethnicities like Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras. His visit would, therefore, provide an opportunity for Pakistan and the non-Taliban factions to evolve a better understanding of each others’ concerns.
The intra-Afghan dialogue was preceded by a Feb 29 agreement between Washington and Taliban whereby U.S. would withdraw its troops from the war-ravaged country by May 2021. The troops have already been cut from the whopping 13,000 to 8,600 but President Donald Trump has vowed to bring down their number to around 4,000 by November when he seeks re-election.
He is using Afghan pullout as a major victory on the foreign policy front amidst signs of his dwindling support in pre-poll surveys. If Trump wins his election, by end of April, almost all US combat troops will be out of Afghanistan.
In Doha, Taliban and Afghan government negotiators are still bogged down in preliminary talks to working out modalities for the formal talks. It’s too early to predict any outcome for the future Afghan political set up to be agreed in the wake of the intra-Afghan dialogue but country’s security situation would definitely be a key factor to break this gridlock.
There has been no agreement as yet on ceasefire and the Taliban would try to occupy as much territory as possible to claim a bigger share in the future government.
The Afghan government as well as other non-Taliban groups could not resist the insurgents’ onslaught on their own and have to rely heavily on the U.S. for their share in the future set up.
Pakistan’s Role
Pakistan has played a key role in facilitating the Afghan peace process and won lavish praise from President Trump and his administration leaders.
Pakistan would warmly welcome any peace accord that would end war in its immediate neighborhood as it has adversely impacted its security as well as its social and economic fabric.
Daesh
The presence of Daesh and some 20 terror groups in Afghanistan (according to claims of Afghan government) is a major challenge for the U.S. as well as for the Taliban. In case of any Afghan peace agreement, this group in all likelihood would act as a major spoiler and could intensify its terror campaign for which it could garner support from some outside power if that too was not happy with the peace accord.
Pakistan suspects that India uses Daesh and similar groups as proxy terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan
Regional Rivalries as spoiler
Iran, Russia and China Iran are three other major players in the so-called Great Game being played in Afghanistan for decades. All three have U.S. rivalry in common and they could close their ranks in case they found that their respective interests were not duly secured in the ongoing Afghan peace process.
Any conflict of interests between Washington and Teheran could lead to Iraq like situation in Afghanistan.
India
India is another factor. Its unending animosity with Pakistan which has intensified since the rise to power of Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi could spill over into Afghanistan turning the country again into a battleground for a proxy war between South Asian giants after U.S. troop pullout.
American Fears
The Americans are mindful of the pitfalls as well of the “spoilers” – many of whom are those who have been despising the Taliban as “terrorists” – as they nudged the fragile peace process.
An early warning on this probability came from none else than Zalmay Khalilzad – President Donald Trump’s point man for Afghanistan – when Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh narrowly missed an assassination attempt in Kabul just ahead of the opening of intra-Afghan talks in Doha.
“We’ve condemned the attack on Mr. Saleh, but there are spoilers who don’t want the peace process to take place or to go forward, and there are people who prefer the status quo to a peace agreement,” Khalizad told State Department after the attack.
Khalilzad went on to explain that “there are people who prefer the U.S. to remain entangled in a conflict in Afghanistan…. and a number of players are bad and some are at war also not only with the government but they are at war with the Talibs as well.”
He pointed out Daesh as one of the spoilers as the terror group has been has been responsible for quite a lot of violence in Afghanistan.
“It does not want the peace process to go forward. I can say there a quite a number of players,” the U.S. interlocutor said and then emphasized on those working for peace in Afghanistan to close their ranks.
Khalilzad suggested that Afghan government and the Taliban could form a formidable alliance to thwart subversion of the peace process by the “spoilers.”
“If there is peace between the Taliban and the government, I think Afghanistan will be in a stronger position to deal with the smaller groups that are part of the reality of Afghanistan. And with the two at war, that provides an opportunity for a terrorist group such as Daesh.
But apart from the warring Afghan sides, the United States also needs to constructively engage stakeholders for the Afghan peace outside the borders of Afghanistan.
Regional Consensus
Pakistan, China, Russia and Iran as well as USA are all desirous of quick peace settlement in Afghanistan. China, too, has an important role to play.
So far, China has largely stayed away from the decades old Afghan conflict but it has become active on this front after it launched its landmark Belt and Road Initiative to expand its clout in the region and beyond that has unnerved the United States.
Over the past few years, Beijing has made strenuous efforts along with Pakistan for Afghan peace. Beijing would jealously guard its interests in Afghanistan as it is vital for it in fulfilling its ambition to become major power in the region.
Since Soviet troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan in the late 1980s, Russia’s influence in Afghanistan has dwindled but being a major power in the region it still has major interests at stake there and would be wary of any peace deal that it found is not serving its interests.
A solemn assurance of non-interference in the internal affairs of Afghanistan by the stakeholders outside the Afghan boundaries could only ensure a durable peace in the war-torn country failing which the dialogue would end up in an exercise in futility as happened before.
And even if the Afghan factions strike a power sharing deal, its implementation would largely hinge on the fate of Trump in the U.S. election as he is the moving spirit behind this whole process.
Any standoff over U.S. election outcome as hinted by Trump himself that he could not guarantee peaceful power transfer in Washington in case of his defeat could endanger implementation of the prospective Afghan deal if it is concluded before U.S. election.
The writer is a senior journalist based in Islamabad. He tweets @HaiderZeeshan14
