Farooq Yousaf
Many in Canberra believe that Australia-China ties are at an all-time low. This low is signified by not only Australia’s demand for an international inquiry into the spread of COVID-19 pandemic but also by Australia’s recent statements on Hong Kong, ten-year defence expenditure outlay and criticism of Victoria’s (state) cooperation on China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
In 2018, Australia’s Victoria State Premier Daniel Andrews signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Chinese government to take part in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This MoU meant that the BRI could have expanded as far as Australia if it was implemented.
However, the Victorian Premier and his Labor government have consistently come under fire not only from the US but also from the Federal coalition government, led by the PM Scott Morrison of the conservative Liberal party, for signing the MoU with China.
In 2018, when Andrews singed the MoU with China, he had said the agreement was ‘aimed at his massive state infrastructure program’. “With the biggest infrastructure program in our state’s history underway, we have the design and delivery skills China is looking for, meaning more jobs and more trade and investment for Victorians,” he said.
This back and forth between the state and federal governments in Australia has also created tensions in the Australian Federation.
Tim Pallas, Treasurer of Victoria, fired back at his government’s critics stating that the Victorian government was not going to reconsider the BRI agreement, further adding that the Federal government was “vilifying” China for pushing an international inquiry into the coronavirus pandemic.
However, Australia’s Minister for Home Affairs Peter Dutton openly criticised the agreement, along with the BRI, calling the BRI a “propaganda initiative from China” that brings an “enormous amount of foreign interference”.
Previously Mike Pompeo, the US Secretary of State, while talking to Sky News had warned that the US would reconsider its telecommunication ties with Victoria if the state went ahead with its partnership with Australia-China ties.
“We’re going to protect and preserve the security of those institutions, so I don’t know the nature of those projects precisely, but to the extent, they have an adverse impact on our ability to protect telecommunications from our private citizens, or security networks for our defence and intelligence communities, we will simply disconnect, we will simply separate,” Pompeo said.
However, it is not the BRI alone that has exposed faultlines in Australia-China ties.
Australia also recently hinted at joining the Malabar naval exercises with India, Japan, and the US. The four countries – part of the Quad security dialogue – seem has enhanced their efforts for cooperation as part of their “China containment” policy.
The Australian media recently reported that the country was “almost certain” of joining the Malabar naval exercises. It was also reported that Canberra had been trying, for more than five years, to join the India-Japan-USA naval exercises, however, its request was repeatedly blocked by India. This year around, with India facing escalated tensions on the border with China, several Indian newspapers have indicated that PM Modi has had a “change of heart” and he might allow Australia to take part in the exercises.
Similarly, in its efforts to strengthen and expand the defence infrastructure, the Australian PM, on June 30, also made a major announcement of investing around $270 billion, over ten years, to prepare for a ‘poorer, more dangerous’ world and the rise of China.
Australia’s economic and political experts believe that recent efforts by the government in Canberra, apparently to side with its ally in Washington, are not grounded in reality. James Curran, Professor of Modern History at the University of Sydney, believes that there remains a “profound lack of awareness in Washington as to Australia’s particular circumstances when it comes to dealing with the rise of China”. Curran also believes that the US takes its “junior ally” (Australia) for granted and to demands positions and stances on China that Australia simply cannot afford to deliver.
Curran’s arguments, especially in the context of Australia’s economic dependence on China, hold weight. China is Australia’s biggest trade partner, with 32% of Australia’s total exports going to China. In addition to that, Australia’s mining industry, one of the major sources of revenue in the country, also relies on Chinese clientele as the country’s mineral resources have “fuelled” China’s growth. Finally, Chinese tourists, students, and investors also contribute to Australia’s economy, especially the higher education sector which attracts a large number of Chinese students every year.
Responding to criticism and policy actions from Canberra, China has also hit back. In a strongly-worded statement issued by Beijing, the authorities escalated their “travel advisory” asking their citizens to avoid travelling to Australia. China has alleged that Australian law enforcement agencies “have been ‘arbitrarily’ searching Chinese citizens and seizing their possessions”. Similarly, in May, the Chinese government imposed new trade restrictions on major Australian exports, including barley, beef, and coal.
In the current climate, tensions between Australia-China ties are likely to remain high; particularly because experts, especially in the US and India, have called for the strengthening of the Quad to ‘balance, counter and contain’ China.
