Matrix Report
With the US’ decision of ending its longest war and withdrawing its troops by September 11, 2021, Afghanistan stands at a critical point of history and the whole world is concerned about the situation that may arise as a result of the transition that Afghanistan is about to witness. Afghanistan has now reached the most significant crossroads in its history, probably more significant than even the Russian invasion of Afghanistan and the Russian withdrawal from Afghanistan. While expressing his views regarding Afghanistan’s future, General (R) Asif Yasin stated that the 20 years long war has altered the Afghan DNA, the afghan people have undergone a massive change. In the light of his extensive experience of interactions with the Afghans, he opined that the Afghan people are a different crowd now as compared to what they were prior to 2002-3, when the foreign forces landed in Afghanistan.
Though the Afghans have tasted democracy, social freedom and a modern system, especially in the urban centers, yet there is a feeling of liberation in the minds of Afghans. The young generation has sort of grown up in a freer socio-political environment than what it was during the Taliban regime or prior to that when there were communist governments in Afghanistan. Now the women have greater freedom, they have started enjoying an emancipated environment where there are a number of ladies who are parliamentarians, running organizations and even businesses. Female education is now accepted as a norm in most of the parts of the country and the youth is now optimistic and vibrant. So hopefully this environment will not allow the erstwhile extreme conservative environment which people are afraid of.
While commenting on the geopolitical situation of Afghanistan, he stated that with the change of American government, the withdrawal hasn’t only got delayed beyond May 01, 2021, the deadline set by Mr. Trump, but also has been connected to 9/11, 2021 which clearly amounts to connecting the Taliban or the Afghans with the events of 9/11 which now in hindsight seem to be a debatable thing. So the two persisting problems are the delay and the association with 9/11. As per the American narrative, the Taliban had nothing to do with 9/11, it was Al-Qaeda. So associating Taliban with 9/11 is further souring the situation.
With the current Afghan government itself seeming to be in a quandary which way to go, Ashraf Ghani has been talking a lot about the ability of the Afghan National Security Forces, which is a highly optimistic view considering the faulty structure of the ANSF where bulk of the hierarchy is non-pushtoon and the rank and file is pushtoon. Alongside, the operational ability of the ANSF to overcome any attempt by the Taliban to militarily take over is also not very refined. If, in case, the Taliban try to take over Afghanistan after the troops’ withdrawal, they won’t do it through classical military operations, and in fact they will utilize the strong influence they have over a large percentage (50-60%) of the population. Moreover, the Afghan national security adviser is of the view like some other people that the US should stay for another year to two to have a better or a smoother transition than what is going to happen now. General (R) Asif Yasin believed that these two perspectives are linked with the tenure of the Afghan government, Mr. Ashraf Ghani having been elected last year, is looking forward to a five-year tenure and will be the only loser of the peace process. He further added that the peace process can be completed earlier if the foreign forces leave at an early date. However, the foreign minister Mr. Hanif Atman holds a different prespective and talks in a different line, indicating a divide in the political government of Afghanistan.
While discussing the possibilities that might become available in the near future in Afghanistan, he stated two possible scenarios, one would be smooth transition and the second a rough transition from this government to the next. Both have their own implications and effects, a smooth transition would be quicker while a rough transition will take place over a slightly longer duration. But if both of these transitions fail then we might witness a civil strife in Afghanistan which might turn into a regional fiasco.
To avoid such a situation, he suggested three steps that can be taken, first of all the peace process should be fastened or quickened, secondly the regional countries including Pakistan, Russia, China, and Iran should become the guarantors of a smooth transition and finally Afghanistan should get a new marshal plan because unless the economy of Afghanistan is put right, no peace plan or transition is going to deliver. Afghanistan was a war economy which is now in a bad state. Unless a new marshal plan is enacted, Afghanistan will go into economic chaos which is worse than a military or a power chaos because poverty breeds unrest, unrest breeds instability, and instability helps no one.
