Jehangir Khattak
The year 2020 will go down in the US history as most consequential for its public health, economy and politics. It had no choice but to fight a war against a pandemic that killed more Americans than the wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan combined. COVID-19 brought the American health delivery system to the brink, pushed its economy into recession and its politics to a new level of animosity. The virus is redefining the American way of life, politicking and may very well change the political landscape this November.
The pandemic’s domino effect has shut down almost 30% of its economy, rendering millions jobless. A record more than 30 million applied for unemployment benefits by the end of April. The country is in a mad race against time to produce more ventilators, test kits, and add more hospital beds. Developing a vaccine to tame the killer virus is another front where labs across the US, Europe and beyond are putting their innovation and research to a grueling test. Target – reduce the average 18-month cycle of a vaccine development by as much as possible. And in the middle of all this madness is the run for the White House.
In the pre-Coronavirus world, economy was the key decision point for American voters. And in the middle and post-pandemic era, economy will be superseded by President Donald Trump’s handling of the crisis. It will be a sort of a referendum on his handling of the crisis. And if the mood of the media and public opinion is any indication, it could become a soft belly for Trump in his re-election bid.
Scrutiny of his handling of the crisis is gaining steam. He has been accused of playing down the threat Coronavirus posed months before its arrival on the American shores. Trump is fiercely defending himself and has started heaping the blame on China and the World Health organization. He has already punished WHO by withholding its funds while China has gone under the American intelligence microscope for its role in failing to control the pandemic. The results may take days, or perhaps weeks, but the mood in Washington is changing. A close electoral race demands a tougher line against China from Trump, which he has already accused of working for his defeat on November 3. The echoes of reparations from China are already in the air not just in the US but also in Europe where some in Germany want China pay it $165 billion in damages. Will Trump choose the path of a new sanctions regime against Beijing or opt for a partnership to defeat a common enemy, is anybody’s guess for now. Some inside the Beltway fear that tensions with Beijing may go up if Trump’s approval ratings start going down ahead of elections.
Even though the election is still months away but Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, is already leading him in most national polls. Of course, public opinion polls guage the national popular vote, which is really only indirectly related to who will win the White House — Democrats have won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College in two of the last seven elections and could do so again this November. U.S. presidential elections are really a contest of states. And the states not just determine who will occupy White House but also US Congress.
All 435 seats of the US House of Representatives and 35 US Senate seats are up for grabs. The Democrats are likely to retain their control of the House where they enjoy 36 seats majority over Republicans. Democrats have 232 seats again Republicans 196 and one member of the Libertarian Party. The tough fight will be over the control of US Senate. To gain control of the Senate, Democrats need to pick up three seats if the party wins the White House and four if not.
Apparently, the Senate election calendar favors the Democrats more than the Republicans because 12 Democratic seats against Republicans 23 seats are up for grabs. And omens are not good for Republicans in the run up to the elections in at least six of the states where Republican Senators are defending their seats. Republican incumbents in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina and Montana are widely seen as vulnerable because Democrats raised more money in all but Iowa during the first quarter of 2020.
Candidates from the two parties are facing identical hurdles in their outreach campaigns because of the lockdown. While many states are gearing up to ease the restrictions, it remains unclear how election candidates will run their campaigns. The situation has particularly put Joe Biden in a difficult situation. The former vice president has not campaigned in person since the nationwide lockdown began. He has been courting voters from the basement of his home in Delaware, using technology as much as he can. He is holding virtual townhalls across the nation and running special podcasts to win support in battleground states such as Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Public opinion polls in these states give a slight edge to Biden over Trump. Former President Barak Obama carried all four states in 2012 while Trump flipped these states in 2016. Trump will have to win these states again in 2020 to ensure a second term in office.
Coronavirus is impacting the US Democratic process in new and transformative ways. If no cure is found by the end of this summer, the Federal Election Commission and states will have to come up with alternate voting systems that would guarantee a transparent democratic process.
With many unknowns haunting the fate and outcome of November elections, America is bracing for more political turbulence in the age of lockdowns, unemployment, economic recession and death all around. The toxic combination of virus and politics could potentially risk more lives because the worst may be over for New York, but it’s not yet in for much of the country. In fact, in the words of Sir Winston Churchill, “now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
The writer is a New York-based senior journalist and commentator. He tweets at @JehangirKhattak
