Jehangir Khattak
America may be headed for a stark choice between a socialist “revolutionary” and an inward looking nationalist “sociopath” this November.
Thanks to a performing economy, drop in illegal immigration, steady employment creation, and a divided Democratic Party, President Trump is emerging as a formidable candidate for re-election. He has emerged stronger than before after his acquittal by the Senate following an expedited impeachment trial. His agenda remains nationalistic, protectionist and exclusionary. In his quest for making “America great again”, subjects like international security and environment remain low on his priorities. “The United States cannot continue to be the policeman of the world,” Mr. Trump has been vocally telling Americans and the world.
Trump’s, at times, strong-arm unconventional transactional international diplomacy has earned him more critics than admirers but it has kept his support base strong and energized not just among Republican voters but also its lawmakers. His impeachment trial proved it all and may have emboldened him even more to keep dictating his policy agenda. Only one Senator, Mitt Romney, crossed the party line during the Senate vote, and that too on one of the two articles of impeachment.
On the foreign policy front, the progress on the prospects of US troops withdrawal from Afghanistan at the conclusion of successful talks with Taliban could very well become his presidency’s historic diplomatic accomplishment. US withdrawal from an inclusive Afghanistan at peace with itself and the world is bound to benefit Trump at the polls and could earn him crucial independent voters in key swing states.
Similarly, his one-sided controversial Middle East peace plan that basically gives Israel a license to annex all the Jewish illegal settlements in the West Bank, has been rejected by America’s traditional allies besides the Palestinians. Saudi Arabia was one exception among the Muslim majority countries that actually “appreciated” Trump for coming up with the plan. Irrespective of the fact that the plan went belly up hours after its less than ceremonial inauguration, it pumped up the evangelicals and some Jewish voters.
Trump’s strategy has been simple. He keeps his promises and protects American interests, in transactional ways that opens new markets and creates jobs. Many economists and experts feel Trump’s trade wars have brought more harm than good to the American business. However, there is no denying the fact that he has expanded the scope of trade for American business by negotiating new and more favorable trade agreements with key partners like Canada and Mexico. The policy has brought some dividends – cutting America’s whopping trade deficit with China, European Union, Canada, Mexico and beyond. His protectionist approach has gone very well with the nationalists and white supremacists. Will it expand his voter base remains to be seen but early signs of a few dividends have started emerging. His approval rating is marginally but steadily going up.
Trump is coaxing all those communities which supported him in 2016. The Indians top the list, even though a relatively smaller section of the community supported him in 2016. Trump believes he can build on the popularity he enjoys within the community — remember the power show in Houston at “Howdy Modi” campaign style event last September.? That’s why his India yatra despite deep differences with Modi over a host of trade and immigration issues, has been described by many commentators as an effort to gain politically more for himself and relatively less strategically for the US. In fact, the visit’s timing, some of his critics maintain, will hurt America’s image as a champion of human rights. India has locked down more than eight million people in Kashmir for the last almost six months. The news of violence during protests against the discriminatory citizenship act competed with Trump’s high-profile engagements during his stay. For India the price tag of the visit was 3 billion-dollar arms deal and pro-Pakistan statements in front of Indian crowds. The results of the visit thus were mixed for both the countries. But politically, it may add new supporters to his relatively smaller base of Indian American supporters. United States is home to nearly 2.5 million people of India origin. Majority of then identify themselves with the Democratic Party.
The Democrats, to Trump’s advantage, remain divided and in a disarray. Even though democratic candidates, unlike former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, are displaying more grace by managing their differences to avoid the party divisions beyond conservative and moderate cadres. But many fear that deeper divisions could deter Democratic voters from the polling stations on November 3, a repeat of 2016. It was the Democratic Party establishment’s dirty politics that delivered Donald Trump in 2016 and same can happen this time around again. Bernie Sanders, the self-proclaimed socialist Democrat from Vermont is leading all his rivals in all the national polls thus far. His lead is causing deep discomfort in the Democratic establishment yet again because Bernie’s chances of clinching the Democratic nomination remains very real. His closest rival, the former Vice President Joe Biden has been struggling, creating room for New York City’s former mayor Michael Bloomberg. Using his deep pockets worth $50 billion, Bloomberg, a controversial turncoat with a history of sexism and racism has virtually bought his way up within the Democratic Party. He has so far spent almost half a billiuon dollars, and counting, on his campaign.
Bloomberg, if survives the intense scrutiny of his tainted record of political foul-play and intrusive policies vi a viz minorities, especially Muslims, during his term as the he mayor of New York City could very well become the foster child of the Democratic establishment which so far has failed to break the momentum of Bernie Sanders. Money has earned Bloomberg a place on the party platform but will it deliver the nomination remains a long shot, at least for now. However, Democratic establishment’s backing of him or any other candidate in unethical ways risks intensifying the divisions to the detriment of the party’s overall performance against Trump. That’s why leading political commentators like Nicholas Kristof are advising the Democratic leadership to build a coalition of all the presidential candidates – representing the progressive and moderate cadres of the party – under Senator Sanders to increase its chances of denying President Trump a second term. In his February 25 column published in New York Times, Kristof warned the two sides with the Democratic Party:
“Neither can defeat the other. Neither can win without the other. Neither can govern without the other. “If they don’t join together — if the Democrats opt for a circular firing squad — you can kiss the America you grew up in goodbye.”
