Zeeshan Haider
China’s strong-arm action at Ladakh border sent a clear message to India as well as Beijing’s other antagonists that its long-held policy to maintain status quo in its border and maritime disputes should not be taken for granted.
Since the launch of its policy of “peaceful rise” or “peaceful development” over a decade and a half ago, China has showed less assertiveness in its territorial and maritime disputes as it wanted to become an economic powerhouse at peace with its neighbors and beyond.
But the unusual battering of the Indian soldiers by the Chinese army in a violent clash at Galwan river valley at the Line of the Actual Control (LAC), the de facto border in the Himalayan region of Kashmir and recent developments in China’s neighborhood showed that Beijing is increasingly becoming more assertive militarily as well as diplomatically to settle its scores with those challenging its rise.
At least 20 Indian soldiers were killed in the July 15 night showdown that was the most forceful action of China in such disputes decades.
And it all happened in hand-to-hand bloody fight with soldiers from the two nuclear-armed, biggest armies of the world firing not a single shot.
The Chinese army’s action sent shockwaves across India’s political, diplomatic and military leadership with former foreign secretary and New Delhi’s former ambassador to Beijing Nirupama Rao describing the incident as a “turning point” in relations between the world’s two most populous nations since they fought a brief but bloody war in 1962 resulting in India’s humiliating defeat.
There have been occasional clashes between the two armies along their 3,400-long LAC but the latest confrontation was the bloodiest in nearly 50 years.
Skirmishes in the past were mainly blamed on the poor demarcation of the LAC with each side holding large swathes of areas along the border claimed by other.
But the latest confrontation is believed to be triggered by the construction of a road of hundreds of kilometers by India close to LAC.
The road that was completed last year boosts India’s capability to rapidly move men and material to the high-altitude forward base at Daulat Beg Old airbase in case of conflict between the uneasy neighbors.
The airbase recently reactivated by India is reputed to be the world’s highest landing ground.
The construction of the strategically important road ostensibly raised eyebrows in China as it was timed with India’s highly provocative move to hive Ladakh off Jammu and Kashmir region and annex it as a union territory. China considers Buddhist enclave of Ladakh its territory and sees its unilateral annexation by the Indian government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a move to dilute its claim over the disputed territory.
Indian diplomat Rao says China’s telling blow is a “direct message that the Chinese are sending to Prime Minister Modi personally.” “A kind of a taunt I would say… they have thrown a gauntlet…and they’re looking for what our response will be,” she said in an interview with Karan Thapar.
Though foreign ministers of the two countries spoke by telephone to calm down anger and emphasized the need for a negotiated settlement of the standoff but Mondi is facing tremendous pressure at home over seemingly one-way fight resulting in big loss of men from the Indian side.
Though the latest Sino-India escalation took place against the backdrop of Modi’s instigation but it could not be taken in isolation from other developments that have taken place recently not just in China’s neighborhood but in the world at large which Beijing could see as moves to block its rise as a major world power.
China’s new found assertiveness in its foreign and security policies might be an attempt to fend-off persistent U.S.-led pressure on its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic which originated from its Wuhan city late last year.
China has already been locked in a public sparring with the United States over Covid-19 spread with President Donald Trump mocking as a “Wuhan Virus” and rising border tensions with India provided the much-needed ammunition to U.S. officials to ratchet-up pressure on Beijing.
Amercian diplomat Alice Wells in a public statement threw Washington’s weight behind India when China started its military build-up in Galwan which led to July 15 showdown.
“External rebalancing is critical. At the end of the day, it will be the US that stands with India in pushing back against constant China probing of Indian sovereignty. #USindia dosti #india,” Wells tweeted.
Moreover, India, which has witnessed a new warmth in ties with U.S. under Trump’s administration, has recently inked a new military logistic agreement with Australia, a long-time U.S. ally, prompting Beijing to threaten trade curbs on Canberra.
A similar agreement is also likely between India and Japan, another major U.S. ally and China’s rival in the Asia-Pacific region.
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue involving U.S., Australia, India and Japan is also growing stronger rather it is being expanded to include other countries in China’s neighborhood which in all likelihood would cause unease in Beijing.
Given unpredictability in the Sino-India relations marked by long running mistrust and suspicion it is hard to predict what’s going to happen next at the bilateral front but security of the Asia-Pacific region hinges on future military and diplomatic moves by China as well as U.S. and its regional allies.
The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist. He can be reached @HaiderZeeshan14
