By Yasmeen Aftab Ali
In a positive development for Afghanistan, a four-party meeting on the Afghan Peace Process was held in Beijing on July 10 – 11, 2019. The joint statement issued by the participants of the meeting made two pertinent points.
First was that “China, Russia, and the United States welcomed Pakistan joining the consultation and believe that Pakistan can play an important role in facilitating peace in Afghanistan.”
The second was that “the four sides agreed to maintain the momentum of consultation, will invite other important stakeholders to join on the basis of the trilateral consensus agreed on April 25, 2019, in Moscow, and this broader group will meet when intra-Afghan negotiations start.”
The meetings also emphasized on the fact that the peace framework should “guarantee the orderly and responsible transition of the security situation and detail an agreement on a future inclusive political arrangement acceptable to all Afghans.”
A very interesting aspect of the meeting was reducing India to the “sub-text”. India is nowhere in the undergoing peace process. Nor is it likely to be anywhere near the peace process anytime soon.
The blame for this lies squarely on the doorstep of India’s ‘tunnel approach’ policy succinctly summed up by M. K. Bhadrakumar, who writes, “Fundamentally, the Indian policy failure lies in turning Afghanistan into the turf to wage a proxy war against Pakistan. In the zero-sum mindset, Delhi overlooked that Pakistan has legitimate interests in Afghanistan — no less than what India would have in, say, Nepal — and that by virtue of culture, tribal and ethnic affinity or sheer geography and economic and social compulsions, Afghans can never do without Pakistan.”
India has also reportedly been funding the NDS to use various miscreant groups against Pakistan.
It seems that India did not come to grips with the new ground reality in Afghanistan.
It should have!
Today, the Taliban controls more area than they did in 2001. Taliban attacks on both security and civil setups have inflicted heavy casualties. This has damaged the writ of the government in Kabul, which India has strongly supported in the guise of an “independent regime”. Afghan President Ghani, unfortunately, took a number of wrong decisions that put him out in the cold. These decisions resulted in the isolation of many influential leaders; removing his Senior Adviser Ahmad Zia Masood [Tajik by origin], cutting off relations with a strong Hazara leader Mohammad Mohaqiq and forcing General Abdul Rashid Dostum into a situation where he went on a self-imposed exile [strong leader hailing from Uzbek community]. He then continued to form ties with non-Pashtun leaders. His security advisor Atmar was given decision-making powers and access to resources only allowed to first Vice President.
India’s support of an apparently “compromised” Kabul regime to gain access to vast energy markets in Central Asia and, in the process, use the Afghan turf against Pakistan has finally led to pulling of the rug from under the Indian feet.
The Kabul regime has also faced serious pressures due to the Taliban’s denial of acknowledging them as an “independently credible set-up”. Moreover, the regime has also been kept out by Pakistan, Russia, the U.S and China from the peace talks.
During the U.S Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to India, emphasis was laid by Ajit Doval upon holding timely elections in Afghanistan. For India, therefore, it was a double whammy when the US ambassador to Afghanistan, John Bass, stated that the Afghan presidential elections, which were to be held on September 28th, must be postponed until the peace process with the Taliban achieves concrete outcomes.
America has finally come to the conclusion that any shade of peace in Afghanistan is not possible without Pakistan’s involvement. India is nowhere in the picture in spite of her investments in infrastructure in Afghanistan. Moreover, Pakistan’s decision of airspace closure, thereby cutting away India from Afghanistan, coupled with economic costs drove home in no uncertain terms the importance of Pakistan to the peace talks in Afghanistan.
Therefore, at this point, in spite of smarting over the cards dealt out to India, any false flag operation to incriminate Pakistan in any adventure will not be looked kindly upon.
Finally, one country that needs to be taken on board in the peace process is Iran. Tehran has reportedly supported the Taliban to contain the US war on Afghan turf, as its interest is in ensuring zero spillover effects into its territory. Hence, Tehran will likely support a heterogeneous set-up in Kabul.
It needs wisdom by all involved to read the Afghan Tarot Card. Such an opportunity to finally have some semblance of peace in the war-torn country may not present itself very soon again.
